Gerard Henderson does not understand history

 I had the misfortune on the weekend of reading a Henderson column.

Oh dear. He clearly has no idea of history.

Let us go back to the rise of Nazi Germany. The Nazis put out a lot of propaganda on the jews. It did not work at first. In 1934 when They recommended people boycott retail stores owned by Jews most Germans ignored it and kept on shopping at said stores. There are photos of old women walking past burly SA thugs and shopping in such stores. The 'boycott' lasted one day. However by 1938 and when Kristallnacht eventuated most Germans ( according to both Gestapo and Sopade records) agreed Jews were a fifth column in Germany. One must remember that most people thought war was about to occur. So within four years there was a vast turnaround in attitudes. ( We might call it Goebbels's revenge who was humiliated in 1934).Thus it took 4 years for their propaganda to inculcate German culture.

Lets fast forward to Donald Trump. He e realises his lies will be seen for what they are so calls all the press fake news. He tries to subvert major institutions which are vital for democracy. ( See HERE  and HERE for example)

Thus in 2020 most republican voters believe Trump lost the election because of voter fraud.

See any similarities. It is all too much for Henderson. He never was a true conservative merely a faux conservative. 

Mo wonder he writes for the Australian.

The elevation of Trump to President has shown us all the faux conservatives, pseudo intellectuals who are too lazy and simply do not have the mind to understand simple but important concepts.

The Best solution to replacing Liddell

 We have known for some time AGL was going to close Liddell power station down. It is simply uneconomic because of its age. Remember also AGL is not paying full dollar for the coal!

When AGL announced the closure it said the power station would be replaced by renewables, a gas station and a battery. This seemed to be lost on critics and the Federal government. They stated prices would rise just as they did after Hazelwood closed.

We now have new modelling commissioned it must be said by Greenpeace that shows renewables and batteries are they way to replace the Liddell power plant.

Ah you say it was commissioned by Greenpeace so what. Well on my reading of the work it appears pretty solid. Only criticise the work not who commissioned the work. Shoddy work is usually pretty easy to recognise. This work is far from shoddy!

THIS adds more to the problem.

I should add Matt Kean the NSW Minister deserve some accolades. He can do what Angus Taylor the federal Minister cannot.

Around the Traps 30/11/20

 It is time for Around the Traps

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Robert Breunig on workers-bear-71-to-100-of-the-cost-of-increases-in-compulsory-super
• Peter Martin on retirement-incomes-review-finds-problems-more-super-wont-solve
• Helen Hodgson on what-matters-is-the-home-review-finds-most-retirees-well-off-some-very-badly-off
• Mark Kenny on albanese-is-running-out-of-time-to-solve-labors-climate-crisis-he-needs-a-plan-that-works-for-two-australias
• Daniel Flitton on australia-s-mission-afghanistan-what-was-it-again
• renew economy on australias-carbon-twist-taxing-consumers-who-refuse-to-burn-fossil-fuels, matt-kean-takes-on-angus-taylor-im-not-on-the-side-of-vested-interests, coal-and-gas-lobbies-take-aim-at-nsw-renewable-energy-plan, big-batteries-are-getting-bigger-and-smarter-and-doing-things-fossil-fuels-cant-do, renewables-and-batteries-not-gas-the-best-solution-to-liddell-closure-new-report-says
• Institutional Economics on risk-taking-for-thee-but-not-for-me, the-super-wars-again?
• Greg Jericho on the-latest-employment-figures-were-a-pleasant-surprise-but-we-have-a-long-way-to-go, in-the-debate-about-super-the-actual-point-of-a-retirement-income-policy-is-lost
• John Freebairn on axing-stamp-duty-is-a-great-idea-but-nsw-is-going-about-it-the-wrong-way
• Melissa Davey on australias-bushfire-season-saw-spikes-in-emergency-respiratory-visits-and-inhaler-sales-report-finds
• Michael Keating on from-here-on-our-recovery-will-need-more-than-fiscal-policy-itll-need-redistribution
• Croaking Cassandra on robertson-playing-distraction
• Kevin Davis on why-is-the-federal-government-trying-to-abolish-a-valuable-safeguard-for-consumers
• Ann Davies on gladys-berejiklians-defence-of-pork-barrelling-is-only-the-latest-serious-failure-of-judgement

Northern America

• Daniel Cooper and Brendan O'Connor on is-trumps-truculence-an-attempted-coup-or-the-last-ditch-efforts-of-a-man-whose-star-is-fading
• Kaleigh Rogers on the-birther-myth-stuck-around-for-years-the-election-fraud-myth-might-too
• the conversable economist on futures-and-options-for-farmers-but-why-not-homeowners, what-if-all-jobs-were-potentially-part, an-economist-chews-over-thanksgiving
• Adam Tooze on republicans-joe-biden-history-congress-president-democrat
• Calculated Risk on a-few-comments-on-october-new-home-sales
• Amy Davidson-Sorkin on donald-trump-and-a-lesson-in-how-coups-fail
• Climate Asylum on fraud-detection-and-the-presidential-election
• Richard Holden on janet-yellen-the-very-model-of-a-modern-madam-secretary

Europe

• Mainly Macro on politicians-and-experts
• Chris Bertram on uk-hostile-environment-immigration-policy-condemned
• stumbling and mumbling on maxxed-out

Asia

• David Brewster on india-heads-towards-economic-autarky
• Gavan Butler on thailand-at-a-critical-juncture-with-pro-democracy-protesters-again-set-to-clash-with-police
• Barkley Rosser on yemen-more-damage-to-world-peace
• Oriana Mastro on beijing-s-line-south-china-sea-nothing-to-see-here
• David Hopkins on myanmar-s-military-backed-opposition-party-stares-political-abyss

Wonk

• Paul Glaziou and Chris Del  Mar on face-masks-cut-disease-spread-in-the-lab-but-have-less-impact-in-the-community-we-need-to-know-why
• David Feeney on submarine-capability-gap
• John Quiggin on climate-change-after-the-pandemic, covid-and-the-climate-emergency
• Tim Harford on the-power-of-negative-thinking
• the grumpy economist on a-neo-fisherian-challenge-and-reconciliation
• the conversable economist on are-editors-just-failed-writers
• Michael Head on why-the-oxford-astrazeneca-vaccine-is-now-a-global-game-changer
• Kadir Atalay et al on so-you-think-economic-downturns-cost-lives-our-findings-show-they-dont
• Michael Smithson on data-from-45-countries-show-containing-covid-vs-saving-the-economy-is-a-false-dichotomy
• Nigel McMillan on new-research-suggests-immunity-to-covid-is-better-than-we-first-thought
• Macro Musings on storytelling-friday-chart-edition
• Renee Jeffrey on who-was-hugo-grotius-and-what-is-grotian-world

General

• Andrew Gelman on best-comics-of-2010-2019
• Kevin Brophy on my-favourite-detective-kurt-wallander-too-grumpy-to-like-relatable-enough-to-get-under-your-skin

Climate

• BOM blog on prepare-for-hotter-days-says-the-state-of-the-climate-2020-report-for-australia
• skeptical science on shearing-thwaites-slow

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• today-in-spam
  
• the-200-year-old-mentor
  
• greek-statistician-is-in-trouble-for-telling-the-truth
  
• further-formalization-of-the-multiverse-idea-in-statistical-modeling
  
• a-new-hot-hand-paradox
  
• is-causality-as-explicit-in-fake-data-simulation-as-it-should-be
  
• a-very-short-statistical-consulting-story
  
• Kaiser Fung on good-vaccine-news-without-glorifying-faux-precision

Econometrics

• No Hesitations on essie-maasoumi-et-econometric-theory, classification-under-asymmetric-loss
• Freakometrics on recent econometric techniques

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• analogia
  

Vox Wonk

• long-run-perspective-productivity-slowdown-spain-1850
  
• inequality-choice-quality
  
• relabelling-retirement-and-regret
  
• regulating-fintech-europe-lessons-wirecard
  
• development-fiscal-capacity-new-insights-african-data
  
• making-european-green-deal-really-work
  
• work-care-and-gender-across-uk-lockdowns
  
• teacher-allocation-and-school-performance-italy
  
• managing-transition-post-vaccine-world
  
• public-preferences-prioritising-covid-19-vaccine
  
• covid-19-public-procurement-regimes-and-trade-policy
  
• lockdowns-and-uk-economic-performance
  
• sticky-expectations-unified-explanation-bond-and-currency-puzzles
  
• expanding-gender-gap-us-due-covid-19
  
• unified-state-and-federal-policies-could-have-prevented-two-thirds-covid-19-deaths-us
  

Big Batteries have a lot of benefits

 Batteries are getting bigger, much bigger and the benefits are immense.

One of these is the displacement of gas plants which are quite costly.  There are a lot more so read the article it is very interesting

Trump supporters are not conservatives

 Okay let us put this claim to bed.

If you support Trump then you maybe a lot of things but being conservative is not one of them.

Conservatives fully support rules based trading systems both internally and externally. Trump does not. He is a protectionist and believes might is right!

Conservatives are strong defenders on institutions. It is the Institutions that make the country however Trump wants to tear them down.

Conservatives accept the will of the electorate. Trump does not.( See HERE) Trump's attempt to show fraud has been frankly embarrassing. It also enables would be dictators to subvert election results. ( This is PERTINENT).

Conservatives understand the importance of the fourth estate. You simply so not have a democracy without a free press. Trump again has enabled would be dictators to manipulate the press. Do you think China would be 'changing' Homg Kong so much if not for Trump and 'fake news'.

All in all Trump has been a disaster for conservatives but at least we know who the true conservatives are now!

Australia's day of Shame

 Australia's elite SAS division has indulged in disgraceful behaviour. Some of the people have committed war crimes. Some enjoyed killing people.

I cannot help but wonder as Daniel Flitton has australia-s-mission-afghanistan-what-was-it-again.

One cannot help but thinking the heavy drinking and the rest were echoes of what occurred in Vietnam. This is exacerbated by being a different war. Are the people you are seeing typical civilians who want to embrace you or terrorists who want to kill you. Are villagers you friends or foes?

We must always remember Australia is part of civilisation. We NEVER EVER should adopt actions or tactics like either the Taliban or ISIS or whoever who simply are not civilised  and are  plain evil.

When we become like them we indeed become just as evil as they are.

This is why we should embrace the report and strongly desire for wholesale culture change. We need leaders of soldiers to be leaders. Thus if they did not know what was going on they should be sacked as they damn well should have.

Around the Traps 23/11/30

 It is time again for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Michael Grose and Lynette Bettio on prepare-for-hotter-days-says-the-state-of-the-climate-2020-report-for-australia
• John Quiggin on why-zero-interest-rates-are-here-to-stay
• Mark the Ballot on reflections-on-polling-aggregation
• Kevin Bonham on recent-state-election-polling-does-not-skew-to-labor
• renew economy on agl-sets-new-storage-benchmark-with-1000mwh-big-battery-in-south-australia, nsw-to-transform-hunter-coal-region-into-states-next-renewable-energy-zone, regulator-suggests-big-battery-alternative-to-huge-network-infrastructure-spend, australias-climate-effort-slammed-as-simply-embarrassing-among-worst-in-the-g20
• Tony Wood and Guy Dundas on flame-out-the-future-of-natural-gas
• Institutional Economics on avoiding-us-style-demographic-stagnation?
• Patricia Ranald on weve-just-signed-the-worlds-biggest-trade-deal-but-what-exactly-is-the-rcep
• Peter Whiteford on robodebt-was-a-policy-fiasco-with-a-human-cost-we-have-yet-to-fully-appreciate
• Greg Jericho on gas-wont-fuel-australias-recovery-or-reduce-emissions-its-a-mirage
• C Raina McIntyre on exponential-growth-in-covid-cases-would-overwhelm-any-states-contact-tracing-australia-needs-an-automated-system
• Darren Pennay on how-can-australia-reduce-the-risk-of-another-systemic-polling-failure
• Anthony Jorm on the-productivity-commission-says-mental-ill-health-costs-australia-billions-its-time-for-a-proper-investment-in-making-things-better
• Catherine Bennett on south-australias-6-day-lockdown-shows-we-need-to-take-hotel-quarantine-more-seriously
• Kevin Bonham on queensland-2020-final-results-and-polling-accuracy
• David Letts on allegations-of-murder-and-blooding-in-brereton-report-now-face-many-obstacles-to-prosecution
• Damien Powell on changing-the-culture-of-our-sas-forces-is-no-easy-fix-instead-we-need-to-face-the-true-costs-of-war
• Michelle Grattan on australias-war-crimes-in-afghanistan-how-could-those-up-the-chain-not-know

Northern America

• Menzie Chinn on treasury-borrowing-rates-nominal-and-real
• New Deal Democrat on lack-of-inflation-in-september-consistent-with-weak-demand-real-wages-increase-but-will-the-pandemic-derail-the-gains, democrats-the-less-unpopular-party
• the conversable economist on extraordinary-spending-in-2020-campaign
• Brad De Long on do-i-really-need-to-say-again-that-judy-shelton-does-not-belong-on-the-federal-reserves-board-of-governors-apparently-i-do
• Calculated Risk on note-employment-situation-is-worse-than-it-appears, comments-on-october-housing-starts
• Perry Bacon on what-trumps-refusal-to-concede-says-about-american-democracy, how-georgia-turned-blue
• Victor Abramowicz on democrats-voter-problem
• Walter Shaub on the-presidential-transition-meets-murphys-law/
• Fintan O'Toole on democracys-afterlife
• Amy Davidson Sorkin on republican-officials-have-got-to-start-telling-their-voters-the-truth-about-the-election
• Stephen Duckett on how-the-us-health-care-system-works-and-how-its-failures-are-worsening-the-pandemic

Europe

• stumbling and mumbling on our-priorities

Asia

• Roshin Kapur  and NazNeen Mosina on india-trolls-hindu-nationalist-fringe-majority-complex
• Holmes Chan on end-road-hong-kong-s-opposition-camp
• Nikola Mikovic on why-russia-will-not-return-kuril-islands-japan
• Jen Kirby on hong-kong-pro-democracy-lawmakers-quit-beijing-claudia-mo
• Aarti Betigeri on putting-caste-system-in-its-place

Wonk

• Dennis Muller on courting-the-chameleon-how-the-us-election-reveals-rupert-murdochs-political-colours
• Elliot Zaagman on biden-s-clean-energy-plan-versus-china-s-green-tech-dominance
• Stephen Kinsella on patrick-honohan-on-macro-financial-crises
• Corey Robin on worst-colleague-ever
• Mainly Macro on how-the-electoral-system-is-biased-towards-social-conservatism
• Erin Watson-Lynn on g20-s-existential-crisis
• Umair Irfan on moderna-vaccine-effective-side-effects-temperature-covid-19
• the conversable economist on public-private-partnerships-importance-of-contract-design, the-super-rich-and-how-to-tax-them
• Nick Gruen on how-culture-war-is-destroying-public-reason-covid-edition
• Dick Grant on rcep-revives-the-art-of-the-deal
• Croaking Cassandra on funding-for-lending-and-other-myths
• stumbling and mumbling on full-employment-capitalism-regress
• Kyle Quinn on very-convincing-evidence-pfizer-now-has-the-data-it-needs-to-apply-for-covid-vaccine-approval

General

• Lizzy Lowe and Samantha on its-getting-hotter-so-spiders-are-emerging-should-i-be-alarmed
• Sebastian Leuzinger on climate-explained-what-would-happen-if-we-cut-down-the-amazon-rainforest

Climate

• and Then Theres Physics on a-little-domain-knowledge-can-go-a-long-way, climate-change-doesnt-work-like-that
• Skeptical Science on human fingerprints on climate change rule out natural cycles, what is cuasing the increase in CO2
• Stochastic Trend on prepaid-metering-and-electricity-consumption-in-developing-countries

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• pfizer-beta-prior-vaccine-effect
  
• the-rise-and-fall-and-rise-of-randomized-controlled-trials-rcts-in-international-development
  
• you-dont-need-a-retina-specialist-to-know-which-way-the-wind-blows
  
• election-polls-another-example
  
• estimating-efficacy-of-the-vaccine-from-95-true-infections
  
• authors-repeat-same-error-in-2019-that-they-acknowledged-and-admitted-was-wrong-in-2015
  
• is-vs-ought-in-the-study-of-public-opinion-coronavirus-opening-up-edition
  
• mister-p-for-the-2020-presidential-election-in-belarus
  
• are-female-scientists-worse-mentors-this-study-pretends-to-know
  
• statschat on value-of-a-degree, effectiveness-of-masks

Econometrics

• freakometrics on reconciling collective risks and individual decisions

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• the-2020-enlightened-economist-prize-very-longlist
  
• Tim Harford on what-ive-been-reading-economic-comedy-and-the-power-of-decency
• Doc's books on the-luckiest-man-life-with-john-mccain-by-mark-salter Thanks Jim Rose

Vox Wonk

• localising-value-chains-after-covid-would-add-economic-losses-and-make-domestic-economies-more-vulnerable
• paul-milgrom-price-discoverer-and-nobel-laureate
  
• mandatory-energy-efficiency-disclosure-housing-markets
  
• emerging-markets-sovereign-spreads-and-country-specific-fundamentals-during-covid-19
  
• covid-19-school-closures-hit-low-achieving-students-particularly-hard
  
• protecting-lives-and-livelihoods-early-and-tight-lockdowns
  
• school-holidays-accounted-half-rise-covid-19-infections-germany-over-summer
  
• vaccine-challenges
  
• proposal-auction-based-sovereign-debt-restructuring-mechanism
  
• monetary-policy-effects-times-negative-interest-rates
  
• urban-economics-historical-data-and-machine-learning
  
• cross-border-fallout-pandemic-policy-overdrive
  
• how-protect-jobs-during-covid-19-lessons-greece
  
• pre-distribution-versus-redistribution
  
• macroprudential-ring-fencing
  
• loneliness-happiness-and-love-times-covid-19
  
• how-allied-bombing-and-propaganda-undermined-german-morale-during-wwii
  

On Trump being an immature schoolboy

 I could write a lot about this but Perry Bacon from 538 has beaten me to it.

He makes a lot of good points. I suspect Trump will continue to say there was electoral fraud  even when all his lawsuits have been thrown out.  This never made sense. What sort of fraud occurred that only involved the Presidential election. What about the Senate and Reps?

The worst thing is quite a few stupid people will believe trump and believe their vote is worthless. This can lead to violence as we see in Third world countries.

The republicans in Wayne County who certify the results were not going to do so until an outcry forced them to certify the results.  This too is Third world country stuff.

Thank you Trump Thank you Republicans

Robodebt was a disgrace

 Robodebt was an unmitigated failure. It is beyond comprehension this policy was ever enacted. Ministers obviously had no brains at all.

Who is to blame. Apparently no-one. No resignations and apologies through gnashed teeth is simply not good enough.

The government picked on the most disadvantaged in the nation.

It was a disgrace from start to finish and has cost us over $1b and no-one but no-one is to blame.

How convenient.

It aint classical Gas

 The Grattan Institute has a new report out on the future of gas.

In essence although they think gas prices may fall it won't be by a lot.

The government has criticised the report but only in general terms and thus nothing specific whch suggests it has hit a nerve.

Around the Traps 16/11/20

 It is time for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Greg Moran on 34bn-and-counting-beware-cost-overruns-in-an-era-of-megaprojects
• Ross Gittins on treasury-chief-warns-big-changes-are-on-the-way
• renew economy on australian-states-and-utilities-go-bananas-over-big-battery-storage, nsw-targets-12gw-of-renewables-and-storage-under-roadmap-that-includes-auctions, nsw-renewables-plan-marks-a-major-new-moment-for-climate-action-in-australia, fortescue-leads-stampede-into-green-energy-with-stunning-plans-for-235-gigawatts-of-wind-and-solar, australias-state-based-race-to-zero-emissions-has-officially-kicked-off
• Tim Nelson and Joel Gilmour on nsw-has-joined-china-south-korea-and-japan-as-climate-leaders-now-its-time-for-the-rest-of-australia-to-follow
• Daniel Hurst on opinion-poll-failure-at-australian-federal-election-systematically-over-represented-labor
• Harry Scheule on negative-interest-rates-could-be-coming-what-would-this-mean-for-borrowers-and-savers
• John Quiggin on why-zero-interest-rates-are-here-to-stay, for-profit-services-drive-standards-down
• James Laurenson on theres-no-need-for-panic-over-chinas-trade-threats
• Richard Holden on vital-signs-a-global-carbon-price-could-soon-be-a-reality-australia-should-prepare
• Croaking Cassandra on not-doing-their-core-job
• Mark the Ballot on report-into-2019-polling-failure
• Graham Readfearn on rising-levels-of-carbon-dioxide-increasing-extreme-weather-events-in-australia-report-finds
• Institutional Economics on how-phil-lowe-learned-to-stop-worrying?

Northern America

• Ben Scott on can-trumpism-live-without-trump
• Thomas Wright on can-joe-biden-set-stage-renewal-american-leadership
• New Deal Democrat on the-2020-presidential-and-senate-races-a-postmortem
• the conversable economist on entering-labor-market-in-a-recession, revisiting-march-2020-and-masks, the-workfamily-balance-for-college-graduate-women
• Tyler Cowen on not-disappearing-after-november-3rd, right-thinking-henry-olsen-on-trump-voter-fraud
• Shannon Torrens on chance-us-change-its-tune-justice
• Daniel Flitton on joe-biden-big-questions-and-great-expectations
• Menzie Chinn on the-trade-balance-today-and-near-future
• Erin Hurley on america-s-divisions-are-real-and-not-going-away
• Samuel Moyn on how-trump-won
• Peter Beinart on how-trump-lost
• Fintan O'Toole on democracys-afterlife
• Mark Danner on the-con-he-rode-in-on
• Calculated Risk on cleveland-fed-key-measures-show-inflation-eased
• Martha Wagner on whats-behind-trumps-refusal-to-concede-for-republicans-the-end-game-is-georgia-and-control-of-the-senate
• Kaleigh Rogers on americans-were-primed-to-believe-the-current-onslaught-of-disinformation

Europe

• James empty blog on blueskiesresearchorguk-modelling-ons
• Tyler Cowen on sweden-covid-19-update

Asia

• Akimoto Disuke and David Walton on biden-s-comfortable-style-diplomacy-will-be-welcome-japan
• Cornelia Tremann on china-world-s-biggest-polluter-and-climate-activist

Wonk

• and Then Theres Physics on namecalling-in-science
• Tim Harford on lockdown-sceptics-vs-zero-covid-whos-got-it-right
• Mainly Macro on covid-us-election-and-media-balance
• Nick Gruen on the-vaccine-and-the-covid-culture-war
• Victor Cha on leading-example-two-different-responses-chinas-rise
• the conversable economist on some-economics-of-collectibles
• Paul Mostafa and Miah Hammond-Errey on evolving-threat-chemical-weapons
• Corey Robin on max-weber-man-of-our-time
• the grumpy economist on1933-lessons-for-today

General

• Christopher Williams on heading-back-to-the-gym-heres-how-to-avoid-injury-after-coronavirus-isolation
• Hugh McIntosh and Deborah Osterhage on this-super-rare-squid-is-a-deep-sea-mystery-we-recently-spotted-not-1-but-5-in-the-great-australian-bight

Climate

• Peter Sinclair on extreme-rainfall-ramps-up
• skeptical science on what did 1970s climate science really say
• climate lab book on what-does-a-1c-warmer-world-look-like
• renew economy on renewable-energy-generation-will-overtake-coal-within-5-years-says-iea

Andrew Gelman (mainly stats)

• comparing-election-outcomes-to-our-forecast-and-to-the-previous-election
  
• is-there-a-middle-ground-in-communicating-uncertainty-in-election-forecasts
  
• what-would-would-mean-to-really-take-seriously-the-idea-that-our-forecast-probabilities-were-too-far-from-50
  
• stop-and-frisk-data
  
• ux-issues-around-voting
  
• what-happens-to-the-median-voter-when-the-electoral-median-is-at-52-48-rather-than-50-50
  
• lying-with-statistics
  
• in-the-world-of-educational-technology-the-future-actually-is-what-it-used-to-be
  
• the-pfizer-biontech-vaccine-may-be-a-lot-more-effective-than-you-think
  
• how-science-and-science-communication-really-work-coronavirus-edition
  
• can-we-stop-talking-about-how-were-better-off-without-election-forecasting
  
• Tim Harford on why-the-polls-got-it-wrong
• Nate Silver on the-polls-werent-great-but-thats-pretty-normal
• Kaiser Fung on the-formula-you-need-to-figure-out-if-the-lead-will-flip-in-a-toss-up-state, hasty-election-observations-that-wont-last, dont-cancel-the-pollsters-yet,watching-statistical-gravity-in-action-elections-and-vaccines

Econometrics

• nuttin

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• n
• Tim Harford on what-ive-been-reading-science-and-magic
• Tyler Cowen on what-ive-been-reading

Vox wonk

• judge-bias-labour-courts-and-firm-performance
  
• secular-decline-co-borrowers-mortgage-market-not-harmless
  
• estimating-hysteresis-effects
  
• capital-taxation-survey-evidence
  
• collateral-damage-children-s-education-during-lockdown
  
• trainspotting-board-appointments-private-firms
  
• earnings-payoffs-different-fields-study-secondary-school
  
• exchange-rate-regimes-emerging-countries
  
• revitalising-multilateralism-new-ebook
  
• economic-expected-losses-and-downside-risks-due-spanish-flu
  
• resolving-mortgage-distress-after-covid-19
  
• unions-raise-worker-wellbeing
  
• recovery-capacity-readiness-new-economic-landscape
  
• wirecard-scandal-what-needs-change
  
• long-term-effects-school-closures
  
• dealing-second-wave-subsidise-instead-ordering-closures
  

Parliament needs to do something

 The four corners program opened another lid on senior politicians having affairs with staffers.

We should note it is almost always a male politician and a female staffer. We should also note if such situations occurred in the private sector the politicians would have to resign.

Why so? well look at the power position of both parties. Also the man never wishes to split from his wife he just wants sex on the side.

What can be done then. Set up procedures which can so any female who feels she is in an 'invidious position' can launch proceedings so there can be an investigation and results published with associated actions.

Please note it would apply to ALL politicians and their staff.

Joel Fitzgibbon goes

 Joel Fitzgibbon has left the ALP front bench and has been replaced by Ed Husic.

The first thing to say is the ALP have had a great improvement in quality. Husice is way better than Fizgibbon.

The second thing to say is perhaps the main reason why Fitzgibbon has done this is he can say things on the back bench he cannot on the front bench and he did get a big fright last election.

I also have to say Fitzgibbon needs to read the Deloitte access economics publication because if he does he will then realise GDP will be greater and thus there will be more jobs if the country addresses climate change.

Hopefully the ALP does and will.

Trump has lost

 Well we now know Trump has been beaten in a vote that in the end is not close. Once all the votes are tallied the difference could be substantial.

True to form he has acted like an immature schoolboy. Remember he did this when he won last time so it is no surprise. Just like last time there are plenty of allegations but as the Yanks are prone to say 'Where's the beef'?.

There is none. If there is the Courts will examine them in intricate detail. This has yet to happen and in reality on listening to the allegations is unlikely to happen.

We can say with great confidence the polls were badly wrong. ( I heard with amusement the innumerate Chris Kenny assert only he predicted the late swing. On what evidence was this late swing???)

I think we can say Trump's vote was larger than most expected because of Trump and Biden campaigning on different issues.

It will be invigorating to watch an adult back in the Whitehouse. It could well be quite boring! 

I should have spoken about Trump saying he only lost because of fraud. In the end there will be two reactions. Largely Trump will be ignored. His allegations have no substance and he is merely a sore loser.

However there will be a significant minority of people who will lose faith in the institution of voting.  This is what occurs in third world counties where people resort to violence at worst or protest at bestr to change a government.

This again shows Trump is not a conservative.

Around the Traps 6/1/20

 It is time again for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Chris Salisbury on three-peat-palaszczuk-why-queenslanders-swung-behind-labor-in-historic-election
• John Quiggin on labor-and-the-greens
• Ross Gittins on economies-malfunction-when-we-cant-trust-our-leaders, we-should-stop-backing-losers-in-the-climate-change-cup
• Ian Ramsey on a-rushed-move-to-virtual-agms-would-disempower-shareholders
• AJ Brown on explainer-what-is-the-proposed-commonwealth-integrity-commission-and-how-would-it-work
• Jade Guan and Wen-Si Jung on taiwan-rising-stakes-australia
• Institutional economics on the-rba-finally-delivers-on-qe
• Brenton Zampatti and Chris Bice on good-news-from-the-river-murray-these-2-fish-species-have-bounced-back-from-the-millennium-drought-in-record-numbers
• Peter Martin on 5-ways-the-reserve-bank-is-going-to-bat-for-australia-like-never-before
• Graham Readfearn on renewables-cut-australias-emissions-more-than-covid-energy-analysis-finds
• Max Maund on 90-of-buildings-in-bushfire-prone-areas-arent-built-to-survive-fires-a-national-policy-can-start-to-fix-this
• renew economy on south-australia-signs-supply-deal-for-playford-big-battery-and-cultana-solar-farm
• Greg Jericho on australias-interest-rates-are-low-and-staying-low-time-to-ask-for-a-better-home-loan
• Thomas Cole Hunter et al on can-we-safely-burn-waste-to-make-fuel-like-they-do-in-denmark-well-its-complicated
• Gabriel De Silva on frequent-extreme-bushfires-are-our-new-reality-we-need-to-learn-how-to-live-with-smoke-filled-air

Northern America

• Brad De Long on the-economic-incompetence-of-republican-presidents-project-syndicate
• Robert Breunig on hijacking-anxiety-how-trump-weaponised-social-alienation-into-racialised-economics
• Natasha Kassam on blurring-fact-and-fiction-us-election
• Nadia Hilliard on us-election-why-democratic-legitimacy-remains-at-stake
• the conversable economist on the-dam-removal-problem
• Daniel Flitton on trump-legacy

Europe

• Greg Barton and Fethi Mansouri on for-french-muslims-every-terror-attack-brings-questions-about-their-loyalty-to-the-republic
• stumbling and mumbling on a-great-deal-of-ruin
• stumbling and mumbling on farages-dangerous-appeal

Asia

• Khang Vu on why-kim-jong-un-will-soon-miss-donald-trump
• Jeffrey Robertson on coming-soon-neutral-south-korea
• Meia Nouwens on is-china-speeding-up-military-modernisation-it-may-but-its-not-yet
• Robert Whitol on china-s-problematic-lending-comes-home-roost

Wonk

• Stephan Fruling and Andrew O'Neil on nuclear-ban-treaty-wishful-thinking-over-realism
• Tyler Cowen on new-results-on-vaccine-mask-interaction
• Mainly Macro on how-governments-in-west-failed-to-learn
• Ben Scott on what-does-rules-based-order-mean
• Uneasy Money on my-paper-fiat-money-cryptocurrencies-and-the-pure-theory-of-money-is-now-available-on-ssrn
• the conversable economist on fall-2020-journal-of-economic-perpectives

General

• Monica Germana on sean-connery-his-five-best-bond-movies-rated

Climate

• Olef Maneke on photos-from-the-field-these-magnificent-whales-are-adapting-to-warming-water-but-how-much-can-they-take
• Moyhu on ncepncar-reanalysis-down-in-november, october-global-surface-templs-down-0153-from-september

Andrew Gelman (mainly stats)

• my-proposal-is-to-place-criticism-within-the-scientific-or-social-scientific-enterprise-rather-than-thinking-about-it-as-something-coming-from-outside-or-as-something-that-is-tacked-on-at-the-end
  
• fake-facts-in-covid-19-science-kentucky-vs-tennessee
  
• so-whats-with-that-claim-that-biden-has-a-96-chance-of-winning-some-thoughts-with-josh-miller
  
• as-a-forecaster-how-important-is-it-to-have-a-few-elections-under-your-belt
  
• shttin-brix-in-the-tail
  
• why-it-can-be-rational-to-vote-3
  
• post-election-post
  
• how-the-election-might-have-looked-in-a-world-without-polls
  
• dont-kid-yourself-the-polls-messed-up-and-that-would-be-the-case-even-wed-forecasted-biden-losing-florida-and-only-barely-winning-the-electoral-college
  
• heres-why-rot13-text-looks-so-cool
  
• i-like-this-way-of-mapping-electoral-college-votes
  
• is-there-a-middle-ground-in-communicating-uncertainty-in-election-forecasts
  
• Kaiser Fung on the-complexity-of-modeling-uncertainty, story-first-thinking-from-the-business-press-to-election-night, how-to-act-like-a-data-scientist-13-no-love-for-independence

Econometrics

• No Hesitations on russian-holidays-predict-troll-activity

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• the-digital-faustian-pact
  
• talking-about-the-future
  
• John West on review-china-bubble-never-pops

Vox Wonk

• deviations-covered-interest-parity-demand-matters
  
• enormous-potential-social-media-measure-human-culture
  
• political-polarisation-and-expected-economic-outcomes
  
• couple-formation-and-parental-wealth
  
• regulatory-arbitrage-teacher-hiring-and-retention
  
• globalisation-and-value-domestic-highway-infrastructure
  
• wage-curve-across-wealth-distribution
  
• lives-saved-during-economic-downturns
  
• impact-public-employment-evidence-west-germany
  
• tiger-mothers-and-standardised-tests-role-parental-influence-cross-country-gaps-human-capital
  
• deforestation-spreading-covid-19-brazils-indigenous-peoples
  
• improving-political-sustainability-next-generation-eu
  
• impact-travel-restrictions-trade-during-covid-19
  
• how-covid-19-making-us-rethink-safety-net-programmes
  
• covid-19-across-european-regions-role-border-controls
  
• spending-dynamics-and-panic-buying-during-covid-19-first-wave
  
• corruption-public-procurement
  
• resilience-time-crisis
  
• hospital-quality-and-deaths-covid-19-us-counties
  

What an election

 The Democrats really need to have a hard think about why they have not won in a landslide.

Trump is clearly incompetent as his reaction to the coronavirus has showed. Yet no huge surge in votes and no majority in the Senate despite the Republicans abysmal record there particularly on combatting the coronavirus recession.

One reason could be that there are far more morons allowed to vote than people realised.

For some considered views see 

Andrew Gelman

• post-election-post
  
• how-the-election-might-have-looked-in-a-world-without-polls
  
• dont-kid-yourself-the-polls-messed-up-and-that-would-be-the-case-even-wed-forecasted-biden-losing-florida-and-only-barely-winning-the-electoral-college
  

Kaiser Fung

• the-complexity-of-modeling-uncertainty
  
• story-first-thinking-from-the-business-press-to-election-night
  

Did not everyone really think Trump would declare victory on the night when he had no right too.

How about saying no new votes where he was leading but not in Arizona where he is not!

I should have added those so-called fantastic pollsters for both parties git it as wrong as the public polls. Charlie Cooke and friends got it as wrong as everyone else!

Oh dear someone has no idea of how the votes went in 2018

Sky after dark

 It is election day in the USA so why write about something important!

We get WIN on our TV here is Sydney so it is possible to watch Sky after dark.

My sons said to give it a go so I tried and was unsuccessful. Why you ask.

From about 7 p.m. when I switched there it was simply boring men who had gripes. I never saw a guest. There was little intellectual depth.

I can almost say this is always the case with people who call themselves conservatives.

They are not of course. All on Sky are trump lovers. They wouldn't know a rules based trading system if they fell over it. Attempting to destroy institutions. Nah they are blind.

I do feel sad for people who watch this guff. It is bad radio to hear a person rant and rant let alone television.

Tackling climate change is a must

 Deliotte economics produced a new report on Climate Change.

It is an interesting document.

I think I am right in saying it says if Australia does not adopt a zero carbon emissions by 2050 then GDP will be a lot smaller than it should be.

Will the ALP use this document properly.  I hope so.

Just how low can the Republicans go

 There are some who hold out hope the Republican party will go back to being a conservative party if Trump is defeated/

Do not count on it.

Remember Bill Clinton. He was impeached upon the findings of special prosecutor Ken Starr. ( He who examined issues way out of his brief but di not think Muller should.)

The impeachment was led amongst others one person who was indulging in adultery at the time and another who had had a child form a woman who was not his wife. He said this was an indiscretion of youth except he was over 30 at the time!

The republicans never accepted Bill Clinton winning. They thought it only occurred because of Ross Perot.  Unfortunately for them Bill Clinton was far superior in politics.

Come Obama and it was a similar thing except they had no specious reason for that. The worst thing the Republicans did was in the courts. They di not allow Obama to put many judges on the court below the Supreme court. ( yep that is stacking the courts).

They of course did not allow Obama to put a judge on the Supreme court when an  incumbent died on February.  They completely changed their position when one died this year.

Finally we have Republicans indulging in voter suppression. In Texas if you wish to vote beforehand you have to drive some 80k in some cases. They also wanted a lot of votes cast disallowed on very specious grounds.

Think of it a major party is so scared of losing they indulge in nothing less than voter suppression.

Just on absentee/ early voting some states allow votes of the military at least a week until they stop allowing votes to be counted.  How is it the Republicans believe this is allowed for the military but but private citizens?

The Republicans embraced Trump because that is the way they behave now'. Oh for a  modern day James Baker.

I hope there is a landslide just on this issue.