Why the riots occurred in the USA

As I write this just remember I did not take any psychology subjects at Uni.

To me it seems pretty obvious.
People have completely lost faith in the system. They believe the police will continue to kill unarmed blacks in the USA and nothing will happen. It is a severe indictment on the political class in the USA.

What makes the situation worse is the fact more politicians put more effort in criticisng the rioters than they ever do about the people who kill black people in the USA.

Around the Traps 29/5/20

It is time again for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Institutional Economics on are-external-rba-board-members-conflicted
• Adrian Esterman on is-it-time-to-reopen-our-borders-for-states-still-recording-new-cases-its-too-soon
• Croaking Cassandra on still-avoiding-scrutiny-and-accountability , financing-the-government ,just-how-little-interest-rates-have-fallen , a-mixed-bag , doing-more
• Ross Gittins on treasury-budget-wont-ruin-us-but-well-help-us , right-now-we-need-all-government-spending-we-can-get ,treasury-no-depression-but-no-big-bounce-either
• Greg Moran on high-speed-rail-on-australias-east-coast-would-increase-emissions-for-up-to-36-years
• renew economy on sun-cable-plans-darwin-big-battery-precursor-to-worlds-biggest-solar-and-storage-project ,the-australian-government-has-officially-given-up-on-climate-action , sun-cables-solar-and-battery-mega-project-may-be-first-of-many ,angus-taylor-says-higher-emissions-targets-not-necessarily-good-policy
• Greg Jericho on australias-buoyant-exports-are-good-news-for-gdp-but-less-so-for-households
• Michael Keating on why-the-coronavirus-shouldnt-stand-in-the-way-of-the-next-wage-increase
• Andre Lux on open-honest-and-effective-what-makes-jacinda-ardern-an-authentic-leader
• Bill Hare and Ursula Fuentes on a-single-mega-project-exposes-the-morrison-governments-gas-plan-as-staggering-folly
• Ray Merkey on morrison-wants-unions-and-business-to-put-down-the-weapons-on-ir-but-real-reform-will-not-be-easy
• Anthony Forsyth on morrison-government-invites-unions-to-dance-but-employer-groups-call-the-tune
• Amy Maguire on malka-leifer-has-been-ruled-fit-to-stand-trial-will-extradition-to-australia-follow
• David Bowman and Greg Lehman on australia-you-have-unfinished-business-its-time-to-let-our-fire-people-care-for-this-land 
• Adrian Esterman on has-australia-really-avoided-14-000-coronavirus-deaths
• Kristy Hess on another-savage-blow-to-regional-media-spells-disaster-for-the-communities-they-serve
• Richard Holden on vital-signs-morrisons-industrial-relations-peace-gambit-is-worth-a-shot-even-if-it-fails-its-shrewd-politics
• Paul Fritjers on how-can-the-university-of-queensland-recover-from-the-drew-pavlou-affair

Northern America

• Open Mind on urban-covid
• Menzie Chinn on how-many-people-are-being-killed-by-the-lockdown
• Sharan Gaffary on trump-executive-order-social-media-twitter-facebook-youtube-tweet-fact-check-section-230
• Emily Stewart on trump-executive-order-social-media-twitter-fact-check-coronavirus 
• Barkley Rosser on more-on-obamagate
• 538 on why-trumps-fight-with-obama-might-backfire
• David Anderson on cubic-fits-and-department-of-doh Thanks Brad
• Jeffrey Frankel on is-china-overtaking-the-us-as-a-financial-and-economic-power

Europe

• stumbling and mumbling on austerity-power-bbc-bias ,hoist-by-his-own-petard
• Maria Farrell on /fatherland
• Mainly Macro on a-government-without-common-sense-and-with-class-arrogance
• Coppolla comment on the-cummings-show

Asia

• Arif Rafiq on afghanistan-one-step-forward-peace-still-far-leap
• Rodger Shanahan on yazidi-genocide-trial-commences-hezbollah-ban-contemplated
• Hui Feng on china-is-taking-a-risk-by-getting-tough-on-hong-kong-now-the-us-must-decide-how-to-respond
• Holmes Chan on hong-kong-system-override

Wonk

• Jun Du on coronavirus-wont-kill-globalisation-but-a-shakeup-is-inevitable
• Anthony Zwi on the-whos-coronavirus-inquiry-will-be-more-diplomatic-than-decisive-but-australia-should-step-up-in-the-meantime
• Tyler Cowen on in-developing-countries-the-coronavirus-deaths-are-younger , stansbury-and-summers-respond-on-worker-bargaining-power-and-more-on-monopsony
• Uneasy Money on an-austrian-tragedy
• Australian Parliamentary Library on COVID-19_-_impacts_on_refugees_and_asylum_seekers
• the conversable economist on will-telecommuting-stick , fiscal-federalism-international-view , how-economists-and-sociologists-see-racial-discrimination-differently
• No Hesitations on covid-19-research-from-penn-econ
• Barry Eichengreen on managiing-coming-global-debt-crisis Thanks Brad
• Macro Musings on extensions-to-ngdp-gap
• Barkley Rosser on death-and-pandemic-economy
• Spencer England on bond-yields-and-monetary-velocity

General

• Shie-Wen Sue Wen on p-is-for-pandemic-kids-books-about-coronavirus
• Peter Dorman on conspiracy-theories-how-to-pick-out-the-plausible-ones

Climate

• David Appell on whats-dangerous-isnt

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• banishing-black-white-thinking-a-trio-of-teaching-tricks
• doubts-about-that-article-claiming-that-hydroxychloroquine-chloroquine-is-killing-people
• hydroxychloroquine-update
• be-careful-when-estimating-years-of-life-lost-quick-and-dirty-estimates-of-attributable-risk-are-well-quick-and-dirty
• this-controversial-hydroxychloroquine-paper-whats-lancet-gonna-do-about-it
• alexey-guzeys-sleep-deprivation-self-experiment
• age-period-cohort-analysis
• this-is-not-a-post-about-remdesivir
• blast-from-the-past
• an-open-letter-expressing-concerns-regarding-the-statistical-analysis-and-data-integrity-of-a-recently-published-and-publicized-paper
• the-moral-economy-of-science
• in-bayesian-priors-why-do-we-use-soft-rather-than-hard-constraints
• statschat on covid-treatments , covid-links
• Kaiser Fung on buzzkill-footnote-to-the-stanford-antibody-study , numbers-indeed-rule-our-world-10-years-out ,the-fda-looks-past-these-statistical-issues-but-maybe-you-shoudnt

Retired but still genial Dave Giles (econometrics)

• No Hesitations on new-sofie-online-seminar-series

Diann Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• top-down-and-bottom-up
• Tim Harford on books-of-the-week-20-the-next-fifty-things-that-made-the-modern-economy

vox wonk

• euro-area-age-covid-19
• trade-conflict-age-covid-19
• europe-time-covid-19-new-ebook
• basketball-s-hot-hand-myth-or-reality
• corporate-sector-vulnerabilities-during-covid-19-outbrea
• coronavirus-crisis-bailouts-won-t-work-politically
• covid-19-and-food-protectionism
• role-global-supply-chains-covid-19-pandemic-and-beyond
• millions-europeans-could-endure-two-months-without-income
• trade-and-travel-time-epidemics
• tracking-covid-19-consumption-shock-card-transactions
• europe-time-covid-19-new-crash-test-and-new-opportunity
• beyond-pandemic-eight-proposals-revive-banking-union
• memory-alberto-alesina
• alberto-alesina-free-spirited-economist
• product-innovation-and-firm-dynamics
• covid-19-mauritius-and-other-tourist-paradises
• booming-economies-foster-spread-communicable-disease
• sovereign-debt-standstills-update
• covid-hysteresis-and-future-work

The benefits of the Lockdown and a false argument

I thought I was like Nick Gruen (the nicest bloke in the blogosphere) who enjoyed the lockdown.
When I started talking about the lockdown to other people I found to my astonishment lots of people enjoyed the experience.

Why you say. Here are some of the reasons:

• More time for sex.  Instead of the husband or wife getting to bed at midnight and simply wanting to sleep there is time to enjoy sex again!
• Tradies loved the lack of traffic.They could leave home later and get home earlier. They could even do extra work sometimes.
• Families could have dinner together for the first time. Both parents were at home. They saw their children in the morning for breakfast and more importantly for dinner.
• When people walked the air seemed to be better.
• More time. One mother had heaps more time. She didn't have to drive her children to school and back ,nor to swimming or violin training.
• Associated with this is just how much time at work involves social interaction. working from home means that is gone. It means one can play golf, go to the supermarket (eek).
• You costs are a lot lower, Transportation, food ,coffee etc
• The social distance , health requirements and isolation warderd off the flu

Now to the false arguments.

There are some arguing the costs of the lockdown is greater than if there was no lockdown. this was fist promulgated by Gigi Foster on Q&A.  It is also endorsed by Paul Fitjers. Menzie Chinn has dome it for the USA It is a silly argument on both sides of the equation for Australia

Firstly the costs are vastly over-estimated. Why you say? Well primarily because of Massive government intervention. Whether it is Job Keeper, Job Seeker, mortgage relief or rental relief etc household income has held steady this time round. It did not in either the early 80s or 90s. Hence suicides for example have not increased.

Secondly the counterfactual is all over the place. Foster does have a lockdown for old people but that is all.

However this fails to take into account people were changing their behaviour well before anyone knew what a lockdown was.. They were wearing masks and buying what they thought were necessities in February. 

This means the choice was between a formal lockdown with massive increase in government payments and an informal lockdown  where it is possible the costs are greater in the informal; lockdown.
I won't even go into why Scott Morrison had to impose a formal lockdown because of politics. That is self evident

Some might say all this is a rookie mistake but I could not possibly comment.

Dominic Cummings

Not a lot I can say about the hapless Boris Johnson's Svengali except his excuses do not pass the pub test.  how can a so-called political genius be so stupid

Here is:

• Maria Farrell 
• Stumbling and Mumbling
• Coppolla comment

The Law can be an Ass

Celeste Barber did a wonderful on seeing the horrors of our bushfire season. She raised a humongous amount of money.
She said it would go to all states, the RFS, families that had lost properties, had lost people, helping out wildlfife and animals affected.
Thus the NSW Supreme court made a decsion on the funds which made no attempt to ensure the spirit of the giving was allowed.
no the law had to be upheld. Only the RFS got funds and then for specific purposes.

The law is an ASS!

A few thoughts on Australian Politics

Job Keeper
This monumental stuff up could have a positive effect if the government thinks this through correctly.
As was stated previously a person being on job keeper is much better off than on job seeker. They have a job! As was stated before sometimes unemployed people never get another job.
Thus Job keeper should be expanded.

China
Australia made a terrible mistake in asking for an independent inquiry into the coranavirus. We did this BEFORE making inquiries about support from any other country. It was not hard to see China seeing this inquiry from Australia as part of some US plot. Moreover the Foreign Service of China has gone distinctly downhill in recent times possibly due to the introduction of 'wolf warrior' diplomacy. These fears would be exacerbated.
If such calls for an inquiry had been made as part of an international effort we would not have attracted the ire of China.

Queensland
The murdoch press and now Peter Dutton are up in arms about Queensland keeping their barriers up against anyone from any other state. Funny I though  Why are they going on so much about Queensland and say nothing about Western Australia, South Australia, Tasmania and the northern Territory.  Gosh silly me there is an election due there in Spring

Energy
The hapless Angus Taylor released a new paper on future energy needs. Besides getting wrong what is actually in the paper we find it heavily reliant on gas. you know gas it lead to SA having the highest wholesales prices in Australia. No mention anywhere of new coal fired power stations however.
I know the solution. Put a price on carbon and let the market do its work. hint the solution is renewables. they are much lower in cost and more reliable

Around the Traps 22/5/20

It is time again for Around the Traps

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Gary Sacks et al on supermarkets-claim-to-have-our-health-at-heart-but-their-marketing-tactics-push-junk-foods
• Richard Holden and Bruce Preston on the-costs-of-the-shutdown-are-overestimated-theyre-outweighed-by-its-1-trillion-benefit
• Ross Gittins on obsession-with-jobless-is-morrisons-best-chance-of-survival , joblessness-hasnt-been-worse-in-our-lifetimes-nor-as-hidden ,women-part-timers-and-young-hardest-hit-by-the-jobs-crisis
• Greg Jericho on despite-the-horror-of-australias-unemployment-numbers-we-havent-reached-the-bottom-yet
• Institutional economics on rbas-bond-taper-underscores-its-lack-of-ambition
• Graham Readfearn on victoria-should-expect-one-or-two-more-megafires-before-end-of-decade-study-finds
• Croaking Cassandra on lsap-scepticism ,debt-jubilees-revisited, a-practical-suggestion-for-the-governor , losing-128-billion
• Paul Fritjers on the-corona-cost-benefit-analyses-of-richard-holden-bruce-preston-and-neil-bailey-ooops
• renew economy on huge-2gw-of-wind-solar-and-storage-to-deliver-green-future-for-queensland-industrial-hub , morrison-to-redirect-climate-funds-to-carbon-capture-and-big-emitters , massive-1000mw-baseload-wind-solar-and-hydrogen-plant-pitched-for-nsw , taylor-puts-gas-and-ccs-at-centre-of-technology-roadmap-coal-and-nuclear-not-excluded ,gas-lobby-seizes-covid-moment-and-declares-war-on-australias-future
• Chris McGrath on be-worried-when-fossil-fuel-lobbyists-support-current-environmental-laws-
• Keiran Hardy on australia-doesnt-need-more-anti-terror-laws-that-arent-necessary-or-even-used
• Simon Lacey on china-used-anti-dumping-rules-against-us-because-what-goes-around-comes-around
• Ketan Joshi on angus-taylors-tech-not-taxes-approach-is-likely-to-create-more-problems-than-it-solves
• Frank Jotszo on morrison-government-dangles-new-carrots-for-industry-but-fails-to-fix-bigger-climate-policy-problem
• Peter Whiteford on when-the-coronavirus-supplement-stops-jobseeker-needs-to-increase-by-185-a-week
• Bruce Mountain and Mark Littermans on nsw-has-approved-snowy-2-0-here-are-six-reasons-why-thats-a-bad-move
• Richard Holden on vital-signs-australian-barley-growers-are-the-victims-of-weaponised-trade-rules
• Quentin Grafton et al on australia-its-time-to-talk-about-our-water-emergency
• John Quiggin on a-pre-pandemic-energy-policy

Northern America

• Menzie Chinn on tracking-the-state-economies-during-the-pandemic
• Zeesham Aleem on trump-state-department-inspector-general-fired-steve-linick
• Barkley Rosser on obamagate ,maybe-this-is-not-technically-recession
• Ezra Klein on donald-trump-risk-coronavirus-2020-reelection-nuclear-china
• the conversable economist on the-bad-news-about-big-jump-in-average-hourly-earnings , a-wake-up-call-about-infections-in-long-term-care-facilities
• Calculated Risk on comments-on-april-housing-starts , comments-on-april-existing-home-sales
• David Cole on why-we-need-postal-democracy

Europe

• Alexandre Dayant on covid-19-exposes-need-european-constitution
• stumbling and mumbling on how-to-be-wrong , what-we-dont-see
• Mainly Macro on on-v-shaped-recoveries
• Helen Lewis on coronavirus-pandemic-opposition-politics-starmer-johnson

Asia

• Le Dinh Tinh on why-vietnam-embraces-multilateralism-uncertain-time
• Andre' Leslie on olympic-sized-challenge-japan-s-golden-chance-could-go-begging
• Biren Nanda on tangled-web-india-china-relations
• Johnny Blades on west-papua-looking-opening
• Rowan Callick on behind-chinas-newly-aggressive-diplomacy-wolf-warriors-ready-to-fight-back
• Jeffrey Robertson on south-korea-s-foreign-ministry-just-few-bad-eggs

Wonk

• Gordon Kang on covid-19-chaos-creates-fertile-ground-cyberattacks
• Tyler Cowen on will-covid-19-expose-the-ghost-firms
• and Then Theres Physics on the-imperial-college-code
• the conversable economist on is-revolution-in-biology-based-technology-on-the-way , reconsidering-washington-consensus
• Eric Lonergan on policy-needs-to-pivot-post-lockdown

General

• Christopher Wallace-Crab on a-thousand-yarns-and-snapshots-why-poetry-matters-during-a-pandemic
• Teresa Carvahlo on donald-trump-is-taking-hydroxychloroquine-to-ward-off-covid-19-is-that-wise

Climate 

• Michael Gross and Julie Arlabaster on just-how-hot-will-it-get-this-century-latest-climate-models-suggest-it-could-be-worse-than-we-thought
• Cassandra's Legacy on the-great-eroei-scam
• Peter Sinclair on bengal-superstorm-evidence-climate-fueled-superstorms

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• what-a-difference-a-month-makes-polynomial-extrapolation-edition
• are-informative-priors-incompatible-with-standards-of-research-integrity-click-to-find-out
• no-average-statistical-power-is-not-as-high-as-you-think-tracing-a-statistical-error-as-it-spreads-through-the-literature
• hey-i-think-somethings-wrong-with-this-graph
• this-ones-important-designing-clinical-trials-for-coronavirus-treatments-and-vaccines
• covidcp-org-a-covid-19-collaboration-platform
• ok-heres-a-hierarchical-bayesian-analysis-for-the-santa-clara-study-and-other-prevalence-studies-in-the-presence-of-uncertainty-in-the-specificity-and-sensitivity-of-the-test
• some-thoughts-on-another-failed-replication-in-psychology
• but-the-top-graph-looked-like-such-strong-evidence
• new-report-on-coronavirus-trends-the-epidemic-is-not-under-control-in-much-of-the-us-factors-modulating-transmission-such-as-rapid-testing-contact-tracing-and-behavioural-precautions-are-cr
• statschat on premature-publicity
• Kaiser Fung on can-men-get-pregnant-yes-according-to-a-predictive-model , prediction-versus-explanation-simple-to-state-yet-hard-to-grasp, buzzkill-footnote-to-the-stanford-antibody-study

Retired but still genial Dave Giles ( econometrics)

• nuttin

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• wolves-on-the-trading-floor
• Tim Harford on book-of-the-week-19-humankind-by-rutger-bregman
• Books and Books on the-boer-war-1899-1902

Vox Wonk

• the-need-to-issue-long-dated-gilts
• culture-and-lockdown-exit-strategies
• moving-goalposts-lockdown-end-dates-can-affect-compliance
• effect-unequal-voting-rights-policies
• democratic-tipping-points
• covid-19-restrictions-hit-sea-transportation
• inequality-and-us-household-debt-modigliani-meets-minsky
• talent-distressed-firms-best-go-first
• excess-mortality-england-european-outlier-covid-19-pandemic
• resettlement-location-significantly-affects-integration-outcomes-forced-migrant
• designing-central-bank-digital-currencies
• gauging-impact-covid-19-market-based-inflation-expectations
• covid-19-italy-analysis-death-registry-data-part-ii
• accounting-global-covid-19-diffusion-patterns
• fact-checking-reduces-propagation-false-news
• discrimination-work-conditions-case-sexual-harassment
• solutions-deal-emerging-economies-dependence-external-funding
• real-time-economic-analysis-covid-19-crisis-lessons-finland

Will we have a depression but not a recession

A depression is defined by most but not all as a drop in output of 10% or more. A recession is defined by some but not all ( including me) as two consecutive quarters of negative growth.

It appears at this stage the march quarter may be positive, just. We cannot be too certain as yet because there is more partial data to come in.

The June quarter will be bad, Very bad. the September quarter will be affected by whether the government cuts Job Keeper and Job Seeker and by how much.

Thus it is possible Australia , like a few other countries, might be in the unique situation of being in a depression but not a recession.

how will consumers, producers etc react.

I have no idea

China's use of anti-dumping measures

Australia is all up in arms about the decision by China to use anti-dumping measures against some of our products.
not so fast kemosahbee
First is  Simon Lacey
Next is Stephen Kirchner.

Those in glass houses!

Large renewable farms are going to be built.

Via renew economy we find out huge-2gw-of-wind-solar-and-storage-to-deliver-green-future-for-queensland-industrial-hub.
Together with solar-wind-battery-microgrid-completed-and-powering-remote-w-a-gold-mine.
Add to this the-future-of-solar-power-from-unbelievably-cheap-to-insanely-cheap.

We see how renewables are the future of electricity.
It is about to power places previous where mining is large. We are watching energy transition before our eyes.

Why is this occurring?
firstly given the private sector now owns these assets they will naturally gravitate to assets that are reliable and cheap. We know coal fired power stations are unreliable because of their units breaking down all the time ( once every three days) they take at least 8 years to build and even then their costs are over twice that of renewables.
Moeover they are only good for base load power not dispatchable power.

It also confirms an anecdote i picked up from pre-coronavirus. Selling solar and batteries to companies for their offices, plants etc was one of the fasted sellers around.

Around the Traps 15/5/20

It is time again for Around the Traps

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Peter Martin on the-reserve-bank-thinks-the-recovery-will-look-v-shaped-there-are-reasons-to-doubt-it
• Tony Blakley on the-stepped-approach-out-of-lockdown-is-the-only-way-forward-but-how-much-well-allow-the-curve-to-rise-is-still-an-unknown
• Tony Wood et al on australians-want-industry-and-theyd-like-it-green-steel-is-the-place-to-start
• Ross Gittins on how-morrison-can-give-us-bright-economic-future , lets-not-go-back-to-politics-as-usual- it-doesn't-work , theres-lot-of-economic-worry-about-but-heres-what-matters
• Institutional economics on philip-lowes-ever-receding-north-star
• Greg Jericho on a-rise-in-retail-sales-is-normally-good-news-but-this-is-not-normal-and-clearly-not-sustainable , we-have-a-long-way-to-go-to-get-australias-economy-back-on-track , coronavirus-has-destroyed-wage-rise-predictions-but-it-has-also-given-the-government-an-easy-excuse
• Croaking Cassandra on helping-achieve-a-robust-economic-recovery , my-remarks-to-the-epidemic-response-committee
• Adam Morton on global-carbon-emissions-to-slump-but-australias-electricity-grid-flatlines , eserve-bank-fuels-call-for-post-pandemic-renewables-push
• Michaeel Belgrave on the-ghosts-of-budgets-past-haunt-new-zealands-shot-at-economic-recovery
• Mathew Currell et al on australia-listened-to-the-science-on-coronavirus-imagine-if-we-did-the-same-for-coal-mining
• James Pittock on its-official-expert-review-rejects-nsw-plan-to-let-seawater-flow-into-the-murray-river
• Norman Gemmell on the-pandemic-budget-moving-new-zealand-from-critical-care-to-long-term-recovery
• Dennis Muller on the-times-suited-him-then-passed-him-by-the-alan-jones-radio-era-comes-to-an-end
• Derren Lim and Victor Ferguson on barney-over-beef-chinese-economic-coercion-cuts-against-grain
• Daniel Flitton on for-Australia-testing-friendship
• renew economy on angus-taylors-stalled-ungi-program-placed-on-audit-hit-list , bp-looks-to-add-1-5gw-wind-and-solar-for-huge-renewable-hydrogen-project-in-w-a , aemc-seeks-input-on-proposed-delay-to-five-minute-settlement-rule-change
• Stephen Hamilton on how-to-tweak-jobkeeper-if-we-must
• Institutional Economics on now-is-no-time-to-turn-our-backs-on-globalisation , birmingham-on-thin-ice-challenging-China-to-bring-Australia-to-the-WTO
• Pauline Wright on australians-personal-freedoms-could-be-under-serious-threat-with-the-new-asio-bill
• Richard Holden on vital-signs-rules-are-also-signals-which-is-why-easing-social-distancing-is-such-a-problem
• Frank Jotzo and Mousana Prasad on yes-carbon-emissions-fell-during-covid-19-but-its-the-shift-away-from-coal-that-really-matters
• Jeff Borland on were-it-not-for-jobkeeper-unemployment-would-be-11-7-up-from-5-2-in-one-month-heres-how-the-numbers-pan-out

Northern America

• Menzie Chinn on guest-contribution-trade-policy-uncertainty-and-stock-returns, who-is-predicting-a-v-shaped-recovery
• Barkley Rosser on what-is-shape-of-this-cycle 
• Calculated Risk on cleveland-fed-key-measures-show-inflation-decreased-in-april
• Heather Boushey on its-not-too-late-to-put-the-american-economy-on-a-path-to-recovery Thanks Brad
• New Deal democrat on testing-and-the-52-petri-dishes-of-democracy
• Arzan Tarapore on breaking-intelligence-trump-and-case-pandemic-blame
• David Appell on when-might-new-cases-begin-to-change-with-reopening
• Nathaniel Rakich on what-to-make-of-those-new-senate-polls-that-have-democrats-way-ahead
• Lawyers guns money on another-brow-furrower Thanks Brad 
• Erin Hurley on america-s-rudderless-covid-response
• Jeremy Stahl on trump-tweet-obamagate-rand-paul-richard-grenell
• Peter Dorman on reopening-isnt-reopeningits-cutting-off-unemployment
• the conversable economist on evolving-choices-about-easing-shutdown , a-century-of-suffrage-for-american-women
• David Frum on trump-has-lost-plot
• David Cole on trump-is-not-exempt
• Zach Beachamp on obamagate-trump-birtherism-obama-racism

Europe

• Eister Haggaitai on swedens-covid-19-experiment-didnt-work-out-so-well
• stumbling and mumbling on technocrats-class
• Mainly Macro on the-government-is-responding-to-pressure
• Lawrence Freedman on muddled-messages-britain-seeks-stay-alert

Asia

• Chin-Huat Wong on malaysia-needs-shadow-cabinet-check-amateurish-government 
• Nic Bisley on us-china-relations-were-already-heated-then-coronavirus-threw-fuel-on-the-flames
• Helen Clark on vietnam
• Mahmoud Pargoo on denials-delays-and-conspiracy-theories-iran-s-covid-mismanagement
• Susanne Smeidl on taliban-s-empty-promises-peace

Wonk

• Noah Yim and Natasha Yassam on prospects-climate-change-action-post-covid-19-world
• Tim Harford on why-we-fail-to-prepare-for-disasters
• Spencer England on fauci-no-scientific-evidence-the-coronavirus-was-made-in-a-chinese-lab
• Alice Richardson et al on the-healing-power-of-data-florence-nightingales-true-legacy
• Judith Godden on which-florence-nightingale-will-we-remember-today-the-lady-with-the-lamp-or-the-influential-writer-and-activist 
• the conversable economist on some-economics-of-world-war-ii, florence-nightingale-innovator-in-statistics-and-data-presentation
• Henry Farrell on public-choice
• stumbling and mumbling on how-to-be-wrong
• Paul Fritjers on on-corona-covid-19-herd-immunity-and-wellby-tradeoffs-key-predictions-and-numbers
• Roger Farmer on monetary-finance-in-the-age-of-corona-virus
• Menzie Chinn on guest-contribution-global-bond-market-contagion-in-times-of-covid-19
• Open Mind on covid-19-a-tale-of-two-countries

General

• Rebecca Sheehan on a-lop-bam-boom-little-richards-saucy-style-underpins-todays-hits

Climate

• James Renwick on climate-explained-what-caused-major-climate-change-in-the-past
• Peter Sinclair on michael-me-just-went-boom
• Moyhu on giss-april-global-down-by-003-from-march
• Tim Harford on to-combat-climate-change-release-the-brake

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• uncertainty-and-variation-as-distinct-concepts
• coronavirus-grab-bag-deaths-vs-qalys-safety-vs-safety-theater-all-in-this-together-and-more
• 1919-vs-2020
• stay-at-home-behavior-a-pretty-graph-but-i-have-some-questions
• perspectives-on-the-relevance-of-social-science-to-our-current-predicament-1-social-scientists-should-back-off-or-2-social-science-has-a-lot-to-offer
• get-your-research-project-reviewed-by-the-red-team-this-seems-like-a-good-idea
• is-jama-potentially-guilty-of-manslaughter
• heres-what-academic-social-behavioral-and-economic-scientists-should-be-working-on-right-now
• update-on-ohdsi-covid19-activities
• years-of-life-lost-due-to-coronavirus
• so-much-of-academia-is-about-connections-and-reputation-laundering
• baby-alligators-adorable-deadly-or-endangered-you-decide
• Kaiser Fung on their-real-enemy-is-not-bad-data-but-data-period
• statschat on test-accuracy

Retired but still genial Dave Giles ( econometrics)

• econometric sense on the-value-of-business-experiments-part 3
• freakometrics on covid 10 pandemic control

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• frank-ramsey
• my journey through the best presidential biographies on the-best-biographies-of-andrew-johnson Thanks Jim Rose
• Andrew Gelman on young-lions-how-jewish-authors-reinvented-the-american-war-novel
• Docs books on countdown-to-pearl-harbor-the-twelve-days-to-the-attack-by-steve-twomey Thanks Jim Rose

Vox Wonk

• covid-19-lockdown-and-eu-labour-markets
• impact-covid-19-european-household-expectations
• unintended-consequences-birth-right-citizenship-immigrant-girls
• how-covid-19-transforming-world-economy
• how-allocate-covid-19-tests-across-regions
• case-permanent-stimulus
• growth-shadow-covid-19-debt
• political-beliefs-and-compliance-social-distancing-orders
• working-home-estimating-worldwide-potential
• three-scenarios-impact-coronavirus-uk-economy
• announcement-covid-economics-and-subsequent-submission-journals
• bank-resolution-frameworks-systemic-crises
• cost-covid-19-crisis
• covid-19-crisis-euro-area-recession-or-double-peak-expansion
• staying-home-mobility-effects-covid-19
• fiscal-costs-lockdown-three-scenarios-uk
• autonomy-not-rules-may-be-government-s-best-weapon-fight-against-corruption
• government-interventions-covid-19-and-economy
• modern-health-crises-recession-and-recovery
• how-pay-pandemic-war
• eu-response-coronavirus-crisis-how-get-more-bang-buck
• machine-learning-against-accounting-fraud
• venture-capital-backed-innovation-and-recessions
• covid-19-and-industrial-production-turkey
• funding-pandemic-relief-monetise-now
• persistence-covid-induced-global-recession
• using-perpetual-bonds-finance-european-recovery-fund
• corona-policy-according-hank
• consumer-responses-covid-19-crisis
• labour-market-policy-response-covid-19-must-leverage-power-age
• covid-social-distancing-driven-mostly-voluntary-demobilisation
• health-and-economic-objectives-are-not-mutually-exclusive

Job Keeper should be broadened and expanded

Yes I know it is expensive however the Government brought on the depression.

If the Job Keeper scheme is not broadened and expanded then more people will go on unemployment benefits.
This means it will take a long time to get unemployment down and some will never get a job again.
This does not occur to people on job keeper as they stay with their current employer.

A leader who was a christian would do such a thing!

an article on how to tweak jobkeeper is HERE

Australia, the USA and China

A few very interesting articles from the Lowy Institute, the number one blog for foreign Affairs.

• breaking-intelligence-trump-and-case-pandemic-blame
• for-Australia-testing-friendship
• barney-over-beef-chinese-economic-coercion-cuts-against-grain

Let me make a few points.

Firstly no-one but no-one believes the coronavirus started in a  lab.

Secondly it is very easy to see this as merely Trump attempting to change the blame on this from his woeful response to China 

Thirdly Australia's request for an independent review is too easily seen as Australia being the USA's lapdog.

Fourthly it would be in the USA's interests for Australia to be the trailblazer on this as the USA no loner commands respect or authority on the world stage.

Florence Nightingale

Via the conversation we have two articles on this remarkable woman.

• which-florence-nightingale-will-we-remember-today-the-lady-with-the-lamp-or-the-influential-writer-and-activist
• the-healing-power-of-data-florence-nightingales-true-legacy

enjoy

Post script.
HERE is the conversable economist

Green Steel is the future

Following Ross Garnaut and his thoughts Australia could become an energy superpower through renewables Tony Wood and his colleagues at the Grattan Institute  have written about australians-want-industry-and-theyd-like-it-green-steel-is-the-place-to-start.

This will show us whether Morrison is a leader or not.

Around the Traps 8/5/20

It is time again for Around the Traps

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Croaking Cassandra on two-recent-contributions , the-douglas-macculloch-plan , negative-interest-rates, reserve-bank-on-the-economic-impact
• Neil Warren and Richard Highfield on guest-contribution-market-volatility-and-the-length-of-the-covid-19-recession
• Ian Overton on arent-we-in-a-drought-the-australian-black-coal-industry-uses-enough-water-for-over-5-million-people
• Ross Gittins on first-economy-needs-cpr-well-worry-about-reform-later , hard-lessons-on-how-recessions-work-and-why-we-hate-them , economic-managers-bank-on-us-being-smarter-then-the-average-bear
• renew economy on major-contractor-quits-australia-solar-market-after-huge-losses-on-projects ,its-time-coalition-listened-to-experts-on-climate-and-energy-and-plotted-a-green-new-deal , massive-pilbara-wind-and-solar-export-hub-gets-environmental-green-light , australias-largest-solar-farm-set-for-construction-after-neoen-wins-deal-with-cleanco , tangled-wires-are-transmission-lines-the-new-battle-front-for-renewables , switching-to-renewables-could-cut-industry-energy-costs-by-almost-a-quarter
• Greg Jericho on removing-the-addition-to-jobseeker-will-not-help-australia-out-of-the-recession-on-the-contrary
• Gabriela D'Souza on is-slowing-australias-population-growth-really-the-best-way-out-of-this-crisis
• Lisa Cox on compelling-evidence-logging-native-forests-has-worsened-australian-bushfires-scientists-warn
• Caroline fisher et al on  coronavirus-news-fatigue-starts-to-bite-for-australians-in-lockdown
• Elizabeth Mossop on the-pm-wants-to-fast-track-mega-projects-for-pandemic-recovery-heres-why-thats-a-bad-idea
• Kevin Bonham on eden-monaro-by-election-2020-how
• Kevin Davis on bank-dividends-are-bare-heres-why-some-shareholders-hate-it-more-than-they-should
• John Quiggin on in-print-today
• Anna Skarbeck on why-it-doesnt-make-economic-sense-to-ignore-climate-change-in-our-recovery-from-the-pandemic
• Neil Bailey on the-calculus-of-death-shows-the-covid-lock-down-is-clearly-worth-the-cost
• Ben Scott et al on /wuhan-lab-claims-australia-questioning-china-or-us-both

Northern America

• Menzie Chinn on guest-contribution-history-warns-us-how-to-avoid-a-w
• Zach Beachamp on coronavirus-covid-19-united-states-canada-trump-trudeau
• Brad De Long on worst-coronavirus-response-in-the-world-by-the-most-incompetent-ignorant-and-undisciplined-president-imaginable-donald-trump , well-played-calculated-risk-well-played
• run 75441 on cannot-remember-a-single-international-crisis-in-which-the-united-states-had-no-global-presence-at-all
• John Cassidy on the-white-houses-push-to-reopen-the-economy-this-early-is-a-dangerous-gamble
• Institutional economics on real-time-measures-of-us-economy
• Mathew Yglesias on coronavirus-mitigation-suppression-flatten-the-curve
• Laura McGann on tara-reade-joe-biden-sexual-assault-accusation
• David Appell on excluding-ny-city-us-cases-are-increasing
• Tyler Cowen on americas-reopening-will-depend-on-trust
• the conversable economist on the-one-trillion-trees-project

Europe

• Mainly Macro on why-media-in-uk-and-us-has-moved-beyond-manufacturing-consent
• stumbling and mumbling on technocrats-class

Asia

• Adnan Aaamir on gwadar-port-new-dubai-or-pie-sky
• the conversable economist on chinas-vanishing-trade-surplus
• Rowen Callick on prospects-china-s-post-covid-19-economy
• Marc Bellamare on how coronavirus is disrupting India's transformed food chains 
• Elliot Zaagman on who-would-beijing-prefer-wins-november
• Biren Nanda on beyond-covid-might-china-overreach

Wonk

• Menzie Chinn on guest-contribution-market-volatility-and-the-length-of-the-covid-19-recession
• Barkley Rosser on donald-trump-goes-absolutely-bonkers-over-china , a-very-grey-swan
• Robert Waldmann on evidence-based-medicine
• Nick Gruen on altruism-comes-from-a-model-the-virtues-from-life
• Progrowth Liberal on potential-pricing-for-remdesivir
• the conversable economist on a-new-real-time-journal-covid-economics , a-hard-eyed-look-at-mass-transit
• Roger Farmer on the-peters-paradox
• Adrian Eastman on we-may-well-be-able-to-eliminate-coronavirus-but-well-probably-never-eradicate-it-heres-the-difference
• Uneasy Money on a-tale-of-two-syntheses

General

• Olivia Murphy on guide-to-the-classics-mary-shelleys-the-last-man-is-a-prophecy-of-life-in-a-global-pandemic
• Libby Zander and Oliver Bauman on 5-reasons-why-zoom-meetings-are-so-exhausting

Climate

• David Appell on fauci-and-temperatures
• moyhu on ncepncar-reanalysis-surface-temperature-up-in-april
• alexandre McMillan and Jono Drew on climate-explained-how-the-climate-impact-of-beef-compares-with-plant-based-alternatives
• David Appell on key-west-sea-level-rise-38-yearsinch

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• nprs-gonna-npr-special-coronavirus-junk-science-edition
• curing-coronavirus-isnt-a-job-for-social-scientists
• bayesian-analysis-of-santa-clara-study-run-it-yourself-in-google-collab-play-around-with-the-model-etc
• imperial-college-report-on-italy-is-now-up
• calibration-and-recalibration-and-more-recalibration-ihme-forecasts-by-publication-date
• university-of-washington-biostatistician-unhappy-with-ever-changing-university-of-washington-coronavirus-projections
• theyre-not-looking-for-a-needle-in-a-haystack-theyre-looking-for-a-needle-in-a-pile-of-needles
• we-need-better-default-plots-for-regression
• make-andrew-happy-ggplot-trick-axis-at-zero
• so-the-real-scandal-is-why-did-anyone-ever-listen-to-this-guy
• its-a-single-arena-based-heap-allocation-whatever-that-is
• standard-deviation-standard-error-whatever
• they-want-open-peer-review-for-their-paper-and-they-want-it-now-any-suggestions
• statschat on what-will-covid-vaccine-trials-look-like , at-risk , prediction-is-hard-2
• Kaiser Fung on it-begins-with-the-data , tell-me-what-makes-you-mad

Retired but still Genial Dave Giles ( econometrics)

• freakometrics on predict the death toll continued , what limits for learning algorithms

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• lockdown-reading
• increasing-returns-in-time-and-space
• Tim Harford on book-of-the-week-17-rhialto-the-marvelous-by-jack-vance

Vox wonk

• mandated-targeted-social-isolation-can-flatten-covid-19-curve-and-mitigate-employment-losses
• who-doing-new-research-time-covid-19-not-female-economists
• leaders-speech-and-risky-behaviour-during-pandemic
• demand-ai-skills-labour-market
• heterogeneous-employment-vulnerability-and-inequality-japan
• pandemics-and-persecution-minorities
• covid-19-infection-externalities-herd-immunity-versus-containment-strategies
• debt-restructuring-time-covid-19
• economics-second-world-war-seventy-five-years-new-ebook
• case-new-marshall-plan
• accounting-individual-actions-could-change-way-lockdowns-are-designed
• trade-bargain-secure-supplies-medical-goods
• china-s-overseas-lending-and-looming-developing-country-debt-crisis
• eu-trade-policies-carrot-and-stick-mechanisms-pursuit-non-trade-policy-objectives
• pandemic-adds-momentum-deglobalisation-trend
• covid-19-skewness-shock
• invisible-business-risk-covid-19-pandemic
• central-bankers-should-not-be-forward-looking-times-crisis
• covid-19-immigrant-workers-europe
• towards-european-reconstruction-fund
• real-time-consumer-spending-responses-lockdown
• stratified-periodic-testing-covid-19
• lack-demand-during-coronavirus-crisis
• take-innovation-economists-covid-19-crisis
• real-time-labour-market-estimates-during-2020-coronavirus-outbreak
• take-innovation-economists-covid-19-crisis
• growth-recurring-preindustrial-economy
• pay-transparency-and-gender-pay-gap
• economic-policy-responses-pandemic-covid-19-economic-stimulus-index
• seller-reputation-and-price-gouging
• rallying-effect-lockdowns
• value-social-distancing-not-equally-distributed
• voxeu-readership-covid-19-crisis
• political-participation-populism-and-covid-19-crisis
• swedish-experience-negative-central-bank-rates
• potential-impact-covid-19-child-abuse-and-neglect
• china-climate-and-covid-19
• covid-19-will-raise-inequality-if-past-pandemics-are-guide
• cultural-and-economic-discrimination-great-leveller

The Eden-Monaro by-election

As usual Kevin Bonham has given us almost we need to know about this.
As an added bonus Peter Brent , alas no longer mumble, gives us a further update on the electorate.

A few comments if I may.
The previous member was highly thought of.  Mike Kelly was both a lawyer and held a PhD. He has an admirable military  career. He followed Harry Callahan's maxim of knowing his limitations. ( He had few) He usually only talked or wrote on subjects he knew quite a lot about.

The ALP candidate is well credentialed. She is a former Bega mayor ( who gained a profile in the bushfires. and  local solicitor.

John Barilaro, the NSW deputy Premier, showed why he would have been a woeful candidate, It was all about him. He was foulmouthed to boot. He has not remembered his party lost seats, safe seats , in the last state election.
Andrew Constance showed he doesn't think about his present job of being Minister for Cost Overruns. He was right if he continued he would have been hounded about Barilo's description of him.

My guess is the by-election will be fought about how we proceed after the worst of the Coronavirus.
One of the large themes will be how to pay for the debt. Will people believe tax cuts help? I doubt it.