Around the Traps 1/11/19

It is time again for Around the Traps

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Julian Bolleter on you-cant-boost-australias-north-to-5-million-people-without-a-proper-plan
• Ross Gittins on morrison-hasnt-noticed-that-economic-times-have-changed, health-insurance-paying-to-boost-specialists-incomes, it-may-upset-you-to-think-about-climate-change-and-the-economy
• Kevin Bonham on mps-who-do-not-have-citizesnhip-of-new-zealand, migrants-voting-for-one-nation-and-uap
• renew economy on propping-up-coal-not-the-answer-for-grid-turning-to-wind-and-solar-says-origin, nsw-canberra-finally-wake-up-to-grid-needs-ahead-of-liddell-coal-closure, agl-signs-huge-battery-storage-deal-hails-dawn-of-battery-age, electric-vehicles-will-drive-20-fold-lift-in-battery-storage-capacity-by-2030-says-agl
• Greg Jericho on coalitions-rewriting-of-economic-history-is-a-masterclass-in-obfuscation, negative-interest-rates-mad-economic-science-or-the-logical-next-step, still-no-inflation-to-speak-of-in-a-stagnant-australian-economy
• Jeremy Simmonds et al on most-native-bird-species-are-losing-their-homes-even-the-ones-you-see-every-day
• Katherine Kemp on the-accc-is-suing-google-over-tracking-users-heres-why-it-matters
• Owain Emslie and Danielle Wood on 5-charts-on-what-a-newstart-recipient-really-looks-like
• Croaking Cassandra on two-years-on, monetary-policy-communications-and-the-lack-of-transparency, credit-conditions
• Institutional Economics on us-federal-reserve-hands-the-rba

Northern America

• Alex Wards on trump-isis-baghdadi-remarks-pelosi-intelligence, impeachment-tim-morrison-ukraine
• Benjamin Wittes on collapse-of-presidents-defense Thanks Brad
• Tyler Cowen on the-economics-of-california-power-blackouts
• Menzie Chinn on guest-contribution-weaponization-of-the-dollar-may-backfire, deceleration
• the conversable economist on remembering-cadillac-tax
• Catherine Rampell on the-white-house-touts-trumps-deregulation-its-actually-been-a-bust Thanks Tyler
• Amelia Thomson-Deveaux on why-democrats-are-moving-quickly-with-impeachment
• Kruggers on us-budget-deficit,  manufacturing-trump Thanks Mark
• Tim Duy on fed-attempts-to-conclude-their-mid-cycle-adjustment Thanks Mark
• Brad De Long on eg-i-have-some-disagreements-with-this-by-the-smart-sufi-mishkin-and-hooper-the-evidence-for-significant-nonlinearity, us-inflation-flat-phillips-curve

Europe

• Rebecca Barber on worrying-precedent-turkey-s-safe-zone
• Lucreazia Reichlin on crisis-of-central-bank-fed-ecb-governance Thanks Mark
• Chris Stafford on uk-general-election-is-on-how-it-happened-and-what-to-expect-now
• stumbling and mumbling on mechanisms-not-numbers
• Simon Tormey on boris-johnson-sends-uk-voters-to-the-polls-hoping-for-the-right-kind-of-brexit-but-it-just-might-backfire

Asia

• Cassandra's Legacy on report-from-iran-country-moves-onward
• David Barber on soft-power-hard-weather-japanese-resilience
• Ooi Kok Hin on messy-new-order-succession-time-malaysia
• Chin Tong Liew on towards-peaceful-and-inclusive-asia
• John West on china-low-productivity-superpower
• Adam Entous on whatsapp-sues-an-israeli-tech-firm-whose-spyware-targeted-human-rights-activists-and-journalists
• Barkley Rosser on the-death-of-abu-bakr-al-baghdadi-and-related-matters

Wonk

• Alex Ward on isis-baghdadi-trump-leiter-interview
• John Quiggin on arrogance-destroyed-the-world-trade-organisation
• Croaking Cassandra on rygbi, falling-population-shares-a-highly-productive-big-city
• Tim Harford on beware-of-simple-ideas-that-become-serious-pains
• stumbling and mumbling on narrative-economics-a-review, on-constraints-in-politics, trust-cycles-in-politics
• Menzie Chinn on mmt-in-relatively-plain-english
• Natasha Lindstaedt on al-baghdadis-death-the-rise-and-fall-of-the-leader-of-islamic-state
• Greg Barton on baghdadis-death-is-a-huge-blow-to-islamic-state-but-history-suggests-it-wont-guarantee-a-safer-world
• Lydia Khalil on vulnerable-state-islamic-state-without-abu-bakr-al-baghdadi
• Roger Farmer on why-we-need-more-economists Thanks Mark
• the everyday economist on wronglessons Thanks Mark
• FRBSF on october/yield-curve-responses-introducing-negative-policy-rates Thanks Mark
• Dani Rodrik on why-liberal-democracy-is-both-rare-and-fragile Thanks Mark
• Mainly Macro on journalists-own-pact-with-devil
• the conversable economist on the-hearing-aid-example-why-technology-does-not-reduce-trade , fall-2019-journal-of-economic-perspectives-available-online
• Martyn McLaggan on we-made-a-flammable-cladding-database-to-help-boost-fire-safety-in-our-buildings
• Tim Stephens on see-you-court-rising-tide-international-climate-litigation
• Noah Smith on globalization-has-cut-inequality-between-rich-and-poor-countries Thanks Brad
• Elizabeth Buchanan on what-russia-wants-multipolar-world

General

• Kita Ashman on the-blinky-bill-effect-when-gum-trees-are-cut-down-where-do-the-koalas-go
• Louise Hall and Dee McCormack on miscarriages-affect-1-in-6-pregnancies-we-need-better-investigations-and-treatments
• Rosemary Stanton and Claire Collins on does-eating-dairy-foods-increase-your-risk-of-prostate-cancer

Climate

• David Appell on annual-increases-in-co2-emissions
• and Then Theres Physics on societal-tipping-points, estimates-of-the-economic-impact-of-climate-change
• Open Mind on western-wildfire-climate-change-is-serious-business, where-theres-smoke-theres-fire
• Peter Sinclair on new-sea-level-impacts-estimate-is-dire
• Stoat on dice-damage-functions
• Ben Henley et al on the-science-of-drought-is-complex-but-the-message-on-climate-change-is-clear

Andrew Gelman (mainly stats)

• any-research-object-with-a-strong-and-obvious-series-of-inconsistencies-may-be-deemed-too-inaccurate-to-trust-irrespective-of-their-source-in-other-words-the-description-of-inconsistency-makes-no
• many-ways-to-lasso
• what-happens-to-your-metabolism-when-you-eat-ultra-processed-foods
• is-statistics-good-for-democracy
• kool-aid-dogfood-and-certainty-is-no-substitute-for-knowledge
• non-random-missing-data-weights-generative-model
• the-5000-retractions-of-dr-t
• when-did-by-become-after
• im-no-expert
• the-environmental-economics-echo-chamber-gremlins-and-the-people-including-a-nobel-prize-winner-who-support-them
• statschat on burgers-or-air, opinion-poll-reporting, briefly

Genial Dave Giles ( econometrics)

• reporting-r-squared-measure-for-count-data-models
• No Hesitations on machine-learning-for-financial-crises

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• the-gorilla-problem

Vox wonk

• objectives-and-boundaries-monetary-policy
• mafia-infiltrations-firm-performance-and-local-economic-growth
• corporate-ownership-and-antitrust-violations
• trade-effects-3d-printing
• why-better-measurement-needed-deliver-financial-stability
• rise-populism
• two-faces-populism
• many-forms-populism
• what-randomisation-can-and-cannot-do-2019-nobel-prize
• moderator-s-introduction-vox-debate-populism
• risk-mitigating-technologies
• exorcising-phantom-fdi
• asymmetric-speed-bumps-response-high-frequency-trading
• mobile-internet-government-confidence-and-populism

We stil have no idea of what occurred in the ;last election

In the last election we had a massive polling failure.
As Kevin Bonham explained in the article I wrote a few days ago only ONE polling organisation has tried to come to terms with this failure.
Take Newspoll we have had a number of them which indicates the government is narrowly in front. Why should we believe these polls are anymore accurate than the newspolls in the election campaign.

In other words they have their heads in the sand and pretending it did not happen.

We therefore do not have a clue of WHY people changed their votes. We do know WHO changed their votes and this makes things even more confusing. Low income and low educated voters switched to the coalition whilst the opposite occurred for the ALP.

Thus we do not know why the coalition won nor why the ALP lost. please note most politicians and commentators apparently do not understand this.

It is a mess

Populism

vox wonk as I call it has a number of posts all about Populism by several eminent authors.
all the articles are linked.

Well worth a read in these times.

polling roundup of sorts

Kevin Bonham gives us something to think about again with regards to polling and more importantly how the ALP went with regards to migrants.

I also should add as Kevin talks about I am totally livid with vitally no repose from pollsters on their massive failure on the last election.

Always worth reading

Angus Taylor is a goose part 2

Angus Taylor has gotten himself in a large problem. I will let Ann Davies do a summary of proceedings.

So what we have is either Angus or part of his staff have downloaded an annual report and could not understand it. There is NO evidence the City of Sydney council has changed its annual report at all.
Indeed there is a possibility either Taylor or his staff or both deliberately feed false information to a gullible daily telegraph.

I doubt this very much. Why you ask.

Taylor thinks dispatchable power is the same as base load power. It is not.to make an obvious point baseload power takes time to 'switch on' whether it be coal fired power or gas ( or even nuclear. dispatchable power is needed straight away. If baseload power is on then it is all been used up.

He also believes the blackouts in /Melbourne that occurred was because of renewables. Err no. It was because several units in coal fired power stations broke down ( and one was being serviced.

He also wants like for like investment. That's right do not take cost into consideration at all!

Taylor is increasingly an error prone Minister. He also appears prone whose ideology overpowers facts.

Gittins on the Drought

Ross Gittins does himself proud with some excellent writing on the drought.

Naturally I totally agree with him.

Around the Traps 25/10/19

It it time again for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Hal Pawson on growing-numbers-of-renters-are-trapped-for-years-in-homes-they-cant-afford
• Kate Fenner and Michelle Lenore Hyde on whos-responsible-for-the-slaughtered-ex-racehorses-and-what-can-be-done
• Croaking Cassandra on new-zealand-and-australia, productivity-lack-of-it-and-other-things
• Ross Gittins on morrisons-hang-ups-make-him-bad-economic-managerl, insincere-misguided-displays-of-concern-make-the-drought-worse
• Kevin Bonham on the-chisholm-and-kooyong-signs-challenges
• Greg Jericho on this-government-has-abandoned-economic-logic-and-no-one-seems-willing-to-call-them-on-it, dont-scare-the-horses-but-the-economy-is-already-in-downturn, low-interest-rates-are-part-of-a-vicious-circle-keeping-older-australians-at-work
• Peter Miller on how-big-alcohol-is-trying-to-fool-us-into-thinking-drinking-is-safer-than-it-really-is
• Tony Arnold on to-bolster-our-fragile-road-and-rail-system-we-need-to-add-a-micro-mobility-network
• Samantha Hepburn on australia-has-plenty-of-gas-but-our-bills-are-ridiculous-the-market-is-broken
• Rebecca Annian-Welsh on australia-needs-a-media-freedom-act-heres-how-it-could-work 
• Sara Dehem on the-evidence-is-clear-the-medevac-law-saves-lives-but-even-this-isnt-enough-to-alleviate-refugee-suffering
• Peter Newman on trackless-trams-v-light-rail-its-not-a-contest-both-can-improve-our-cities
• Anthony Asher on postcode-by-postcode-a-clever-way-to-include-homes-in-the-age-pension-assets-test
• Dennis Muller on australian-governments-have-long-been-hostile-to-media-freedom-thats-unlikely-to-change-any-time-soon
• renew economy on aemo-hints-at-staged-transition-as-it-seeks-to-define-limits-of-wind-and-solar
• Vanessa Bowden on water-may-soon-lap-at-the-door-but-still-some-homeowners-dont-want-to-rock-the-boat
• Peter Martin on if-you-want-to-boost-the-economy-big-infrastructure-projects-wont-cut-it-new-treasury-boss
• Andrew Blakers and Mathew Stocks on some-good-news-for-a-change-australias-greenhouse-gas-emissions-are-set-to-fall
• Ann Davies on angus-taylor-the-doctored-documents-mystery-will-weaken-trust-in-politicians-and-journalism

Northern America

• Robert Barro on is politics getting to the fed Thanks Brad
• Brendan O'Connor on the-trump-presidency-should-not-be-shocking-its-a-symptom-of-our-cultural-malaise
• Calculated Risk on real-gdp-annual-and-quarterly, comments-on-september-existing-home-sales
• Menzie Chinn on presentation-the-economic-consequences-of-trumps-war-on-multilateralism
• Jeremy Wildeman on justin-trudeaus-political-setback-a-surprise-to-the-world-but-not-to-canada
• Ajay Parasram on justin-trudeaus-job-just-got-a-lot-more-complicated
• Alex Ward on taylor-impeachment-testimony-ukraine-quid-trump, trymp-syria-turkey-doctrine
• Scepticlawyer on montesquieu-and-the-us-explaining-the-uss-presidential-aberration
• Russell Berman on whistleblowers-ukraine-scandal
• John Cassidy on why-ambassador-william-taylors-testimony-was-so-damaging-to-trump
• New Deal Democrat on the-divergent-nowcast-and-one-models-forecast-at-seeking-alpha
• Richard Holden on vital-signs-talk-of-a-us-wealth-tax-is-about-symbolism-as-much-as-it-is-about-economics
• Roberta Ryan on 80%-of-household-water-goes-to-waste-we-need-to-get-it-back
• Peter Gunn on no-mr-dutton-dna-testing-isis-brides-wont-tell-you-whos-an-australian-citizen

Europe

• Simon Usherwood on boris-johnsons-brexit-deal-whats-in-it-and-how-is-it-different-to-theresa-mays-version
• Mainly Macro on is-this-good-for-johnson-whether-he-wins-or-loses, brexit-is-denial-of-economics-as-knowledge
• Amelia Hadfield on boris-johnsons-three-letters-to-brussels-what-do-they-mean-for-brexit
• stumbling and mumbling on detoxifying-brexit

Asia

• Lauren Williams on temperatures-rise-lebanon-s-streets
• Mehmet Azalp on the-ceasefire-in-syria-is-ending-heres-whats-likely-to-happen-now
• Elliot Zaagman on china-s-own-great-delusion
• JJ Rose on hong-kong-protesters-need-narrative-now
• Greg Barton on us-retreat-from-syria-could-see-islamic-state-roar-back-to-life
• Barkley Rwhither-lebanonosser on 

Wonk

• Brad De Long on no-we-dont-need-a-recession
• Menzie Chinn on what-does-it-mean-to-say-futures-contracts-forecast
• Tim Harford on why-were-thinking-about-worst-case-scenarios-in-the-wrong-way
• Croaking Cassandra on disagreeing-with-lord-king, productivity-growth-or-lack-of-it
• Roland Rajah et al on ocean-debt-belt-and-road-and-debt-diplomacy-pacific
• New Deal Democrat on the-rise-and-fall-of-the-roman-republic-part-1-of-4-structure-and-background, the-rise-and-fall-of-the-roman-republic-part-2-of-4-the-first-hammer-blows, the-rise-and-fall-of-the-roman-republic-part-3-of-4-the-final-hammer-blows
• the conversable economist on the-rise-of-global-trade-in-services, fentanyl-and-synthetic-opioids
• Alex Tabarrok on summers-on-the-wealth-tax
• Tyler Cowen on marriage-is-underrated-for-its-social-and-political-benefits
• Lydia Khalil and Daniel Flitton on trump-s-troop-withdrawal-and-what-s-next-islamic-state
• the grumpy economist on economics-and-cognitive-dissonance
• Peter Dorman on the-famous-baseball-watching-equality
• stumbling and mumbling on politics-as-natural-selection

General

• Michael Petterson on climate-explained-how-volcanoes-influence-climate-and-how-their-emissions-compare-to-what-we-produce
• Ian Johnson on the-eastern-jesus

Climate

• Open Mind on sea-level-acceleration-since-the-1960s, aligning-tide-gauge-stations, sea-level-rise-regional
• Renew Economy on distributed-solar-to-lead-global-renewables-surge-as-costs-fall-another-third, why-the-nuclear-lobby-makes-stuff-up-about-cost-of-wind-and-solar
• Stoat on economists-greatly-underestimate-price

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• the-status-reversal-heuristic
• heres-an-interesting-story-right-in-your-sweet-spot
• the-real-lesson-learned-from-those-academic-hoaxes-a-key-part-of-getting-a-paper-published-in-a-scholarly-journal-is-to-be-able-to-follow-the-conventions-of-the-journal-and-some-people-happen-to-b
• social-science-plaig-update
• hes-looking-for-a-bayesian-book
• starting-at-the-beginning-again-can-be-exhausting-and-stressful-but-opportunities-are-finally-coming-into-focus
• bayesian-analysis-of-data-collected-sequentially-its-easy-just-include-as-predictors-in-the-model-any-variables-that-go-into-the-stopping-rule
• the-role-of-nature-versus-nurture-in-wealth-and-other-economic-outcomes-and-behaviors
• bullshitters-who-are-they-and-what-do-we-know-about-their-lives
• causal-processes-in-psychology-are-heterogeneous
• the-devils-in-the-details-and-also-in-the-broad-strokes-is-this-study-ridiculous-or-am-i-badly-misjudging-it
• Statschat on publicise-it-while-it-still-works
• Kaiser Fung on statistical-significance-explained-using-a-recent-political-polling-experiment

Genial Dave Giles ( econometrics)

• No Hesitations on missing-data-in-factor-models, volatility-and-risk-institute
• Freakometrics on principal component analysis

Dianne Coyle (quirky + book reviews)

• Doc's books on menachem-begin-a-life-by-avi-shilon, a-state-at-any-cost-the-life-of-david-ben-gurion-by-tom-segev

vox wonk

• housing-policies-combat-affordability-crisis
• tariffs-and-monetary-policy-toxic-mix
• right-here-right-now-quest-more-balanced-policy-mix
• inversions-us-presidential-elections-1836-2016
• working-hours-and-overweight
• trade-and-negotiations-fisheries-subsidies
• alleviating-poverty-experimental-research-2019-nobel-laureates
• losses-failed-negotiations
• private-equity-buyouts-and-their-effects
• electricity-adoption-technological-change-and-social-conflict
• phillips-curve-dead-or-alive
• middle-management-geographic-frictions-and-firm-establishments

Denialists do not understand climate change

This is my take on an article from Real Climate entitled:

• more-than-500-people-misunderstand-climate-change

Can I say the criticism of climate change is taken seriously. They do not impute 'impure political' motives but rather take on their criticisms and shoe how poor they are.

Is Morrison going to copy Fraser?

I thought about this after reading Ross Gittins.
He essentially says Morrison is playing politics and is not good at economics and it may well catch up with him.
See also Greg Jericho on the economics.

For those of you who were not around Malcolm Fraser and his Treasurer John Howard were saying the same things this present mob are however a severe recession caught up with them and their last budget resulted in a spending spree to avert the recession. It was too late and people were perplexed why the government were doing the very thing they said should not be done i.e spending a lot of money.

Morrison is running into bad headwinds and is betting on a turnaround to ensure things get better. His big selling point is an actual surplus ( in reality a balanced budget). Even here the latest Niemeyer statements by the Department of Fiance show the budget running BEHIND projections because of the slowing economy. Thus Morrison is hoping high iron ore prices overcomes a weak domestic economy for the budget to get 'into surplus'.

Will Morrison copy Fraser and have to adopt expansionary economic policies as Ross Gittins alludes to. It is possible. There are all sorts of scenarios that could lead to this. My guess is they are unlikely at this stage HOWEVER they should NOT be discounted.

Some of these include:

• A slowing Chinese economy
• The USA/China trade dispute impacting the world economy
• A hard Brexit eventuates and the Bank of England cannot obviate it
• The weak wages growth is because of weak employee power and will continue to be weak into the medium term

It would be both ironic and appropriate for a so called very good politician fail because he was too good at politics!!

Around the Traps 18/10/19

It is time for Around the Traps

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Croaking Cassandra on reopening-parent-visas, culture-and-conduct-in-question, holding-the-bank-to-account-oia-requests, dear-board-members, what-was-and-what-might-have-been
• John Quiggin and Robin Smit on we-thought-australian-cars-were-using-less-fuel-new-research-shows-we-were-wrong
• Regina Jeffries and Daniel Jeffriews and Daniel Gazalbeasch on theres-no-airport-border-crisis-only-management-failure-of-the-home-affairs-department
• Ross Gittins on barring-another-financial-crisis-it-wil-be-a-long-wait-for-QE, politicians-too-poor-at-their-jobs-to-fix-poverty
• renew economy on aemc-proposes-complex-new-market-signals-for-wind-and-solar-networks
• Jonathan Pollack et al on australia-could-see-fewer-cyclones-but-more-heat-and-fire-risk-in-coming-months
• Bruce Mountain on snowy-2-0-will-not-produce-nearly-as-much-electricity-as-claimed-we-must-hit-the-pause-button
• Mark Humprey-Jenner on four-questions-about-mortgages-the-accc-inquiry-should-put-to-the-big-four-banks
• Chyi Lin Li et al on rail-works-lift-property-prices-pointing-to-value-captures-potential-to-fund-city-infrastructure
• Nic Macellan on accepting-science-rejecting-action
• Maryanne Slattery on the-only-thing-as-certain-as-drought-in-australia-is-the-stupid-calls-to-build-new-dams
• Frank Jotzo et al on double-counting-of-emissions-cuts-may-undermine-paris-climate-deal
• Emma Katherine-White on we-cant-drought-proof-australia-and-trying-is-a-fools-errand
• Kevin Bonham on psephology-and-total-control-episode-one
• renew economy on national-parks-association-calls-on-governments-to-scrap-snowy-2-0, aemo-provides-glimpse-of-future-grid-not-much-fossil-fuel-even-less-base-load, why-network-operators-will-take-thousands-of-customers-off-the-grid
• Lenore Taylor on australia-wasted-decades-in-climate-denial-and-must-break-free-of-the-mire-of-misinformation
• Richard Dennis on scott-morrison-is-good-at-shifting-responsibility-but-even-god-cant-help-him-now
• Richard Holden on vital-signs-our-compulsory-super-system-is-broken-we-ought-to-axe-it-or-completely-reform-it

Northern America

• Menzie Chinn on capital-goods-imports-and-equipment-investment, more-signs-of-contraction-when-will-the-gdp-turn-negative
• Institutional Economics on trumps-fake-trade-deal-comes-at-a-high-price-for-global-economy
• Calculated Risk on comments-on-september-housing-starts
• the conversable economist on some-income-tax-data-on-top-incomes

Europe

• Mainly Macro on if-uk-and-eu-can-do-deal-is-everything-ok, a-peoples-vote-or-general-election-how-does-boris-johnson's-new-deal-change-things
• Coppolla comment on quo-vadis
• Xiaoli Guo on turkey-s-safe-zone-may-prove-costly

Asia

• Randy Mulyanto on china-national-reunification-remains-dream
• Nathan Attrill on china-and-problem-liberal-values-corporate-world
• Jon Norling on iraq-protests-cost-corruption-and-failed-reforms
• Lauri Millyvirta and Fergus Green on china-s-carbon-emissions-trading-scheme-not-where-action

Wonk

• Tim Harford on steve-levitt-plays-poker-with-the-ft
• the conversable economist on when-hayek-opposed-nobel-prize-in-economics
• Peter Dorman on a-nobel-for-randomistas
• Alex Tabarrok on the-nobel-prize-in-economic-science-goes-to-banerjee-duflo-and-kremer
• Macro Musings on allan-meltzers-life-work
• stumbling and mumbling on why-we-are-wrong
• Tyler Cowen on what-is-the-incidence-of-the-corporate-income-tax

General

• John Quiggin on no-true-war-is-bad
• the conversable economist on opinions-about-semicolons

Climate

• Stoat on a-review-of-review-of-stern-review-on-the-economics-of-climate-changel
• and Then Theres Physics on 2025
• Skeptical Science on brief overview of latest IPCC report on oceans and ice risks
• arctic sea ice on piomas-october-2019
• Open Mind on sea-level-acceleration-denial
• Moyhu on new-femloess-method-of-integrating-temperature-anomalies, giss-september-global-unchanged-from-august, methods-of-integrating-temperature-anomalies
• Real Climate on more-than-500-people-misunderstand-climate-change

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• the-best-is-the-enemy-of-the-good-it-is-also-the-enemy-of-the-not-so-good
• when-presenting-a-new-method-talk-about-its-failure-modes
• think-scientifically-scientists-proposals-fixing-science-2
• a-heart-full-of-hatred-8-schools-edition
• the-status-reversal-heuristic
• heres-an-interesting-story-right-in-your-sweet-spot
• Keith O'Rourke on the-virtue-of-fake-universes-a-purposeful-and-safe-way-to-explain-empirical-inference
• Kaiser Fung on statistical-significance-explained-using-a-recent-political-polling-experiment

Genial Dave Giles ( econometrics)

• No Hesitations on interval-prediction
• Supply Side Liberal ob adding-a-variable-measured-with-error-to-a-regression-only-partially-controls-for-that-variable Thanks Brad

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• productivity-machines

Vox Wonk

• social-suppression-labour-supply
• recessions-and-size-middle-class
• rethinking-fiscal-policy-choices-euro-area
• how-domestic-fiscal-frameworks-can-contribute-sound-fiscal-policy
• sailing-uncharted-demographic-waters
• increasing-diversity-uk-economics
• monetary-policy-should-prevent-deflation-and-avoid-bad-equilibrium
• cash-hoarding-puzzle-and-rising-global-demand-cash
• price-effects-trade
• inflation-puzzle-euro-area
• link-between-declining-middle-wage-jobs-rising-wage-inequality-and-worker-welfare
• impacts-private-provision-medicaid

Why we are wrong

stumbling and mumbling has a wonderful post on why we are so loathe to change beliefs even after they have been repeatedly falsified. It follows from a Eric Loergan question on this topic.

Very stimulating

We cannot drought proof Australia

That is the title of an article by Emma Kathryn-White

Worth reading

What is so hard about bringing back people from Syria

Our Home Affairs Minister does not want to bring back Australian citizens from Syria.
Apparently some citizens are more  important than others.
Why should we do it?
Well they are Australian citizens.
What about the risk? The only risk is some would perform terrorist acts in Australia.
There is either evidence for this or there isn't.
Evidence means they are put in prison like anyone else who might perpetrate crimes.
If there isn't either the Minister is lying or he only has information they MIGHT perform terrorist acts.
If he is lying and merely saying this for political effect we have no worries.
If he is not and he has only information they might perform terrorist acts then the police would follow them like they do with any other criminal suspects. I suspect ( pun intended) it would not take too long before they are arrested indeed they possibly could well be arrested now for going to an area not allowed for Australian citizens.

Peter Dutton has a very peculiar understanding of what it means to be an Australian citizen

Angus Taylor is a goose

I could ramble on but someone else has done it for me!

Around the Traps 11/10/19

It is time for Around the Traps again.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Chris Barrie on climate-change-poses-a-direct-threat-to-australias-national-security-it-must-be-a-political-priority
• Guy Dundas on governments-took-the-hard-road-on-clean-energy-and-consumers-are-feeling-the-bumps
• Croaking Cassandra on a-day-for-celebration, expecting-low-inflation-and-interest-rates, rents-should-have-been-falling, fiscal-thoughts
• Greg Jericho on if-the-pm-thought-money-for-farmers-was-welfare-theyd-be-getting-robodebt-notices
• Stephen Kirchner on rba-interest-rates-approach-zero-quantitative-easing
• Renew Economy on australia-could-aim-for-700-per-cent-renewables-arena-boss, us-energy-giant-says-renewables-and-batteries-beat-coal-gas-and-nukes, is-angus-taylor-on-a-one-man-mission-to-stop-wind-and-solar
• Anthony Forsyth on louts-thugs-bullies-the-myth-thats-driving-morrisons-anti-union-push
• Chris Lucas and Sarah Harris on its-only-october-so-whats-with-all-these-bushfires-new-research-explains-it 
• Linda Botterill on a-national-drought-policy-should-be-an-easy-bipartisan-fix-so-why-has-it-taken-so-long-to-enact-a-new-one
• Owen Douglas and Kieren Harrahill on coal-mines-can-be-closed-without-destroying-livelihoods-heres-how
• Kevin Davis on our-leaders-ought-to-know-better-failing-to-pass-on-the-full-rate-cut-neednt-mean-banks-are-profiteering

Northern America

• Jen Kirby on trump-syria-turkey-erdogan-invasion-kurds
• Maggie Koerth-Baker on media-bubbles-arent-the-biggest-reason-were-partisans 
• Peter Dorman on medicare-for-all
• Barkley Rosser on the-repo-ruckus
• New Deal Democrat on have-we-finally-reached-full-employment
• the conversable economist on waste-and-worse-in-us-health-care
• calculated risk on cleveland-fed-key-measures-show-key-inflation-measures-above-2%-in-august

Europe

• Mainly Macro on should-second-referendum-happen, the-liberal-democrats-in-next-general-may-win-a-few-seats-at-the-expense-of-Johnson
• Ross Gittins on why-are-viking-economies-so-successful
• Yascha Mounk on poland-could-lose-its-democracy
• Mehmet Ozalp on as-turkish-troops-move-in-to-syria-the-risks-are-great-including-for-turkey-itself

Asia

• Barkley Rosser on why-is-iraq-blowing-up-now
• Tony Walker on trump-decision-to-withdraw-troops-from-syria-opens-way-for-dangerous-middle-east-power-play
• Andre Leslie on the-interpreter/qatar-blockade-ruining-country-s-sporting-goals
• the conversable economist on the-jobs-problem-in-india
• Brigid O'Farrell on sharp-shift-syria
• Ruth Marglit on letter-from-jerusalem/the-precarious-position-of-benjamin-netanyahu
• Khang Vu on why-does-north-korea-keep-dragging-its-feet

Wonk

• Henry Gao and Weihoun Zhou on myth-busted-chinas-status-as-a-developing-country-gives-it-few-benefits-in-the-world-trade-organisation
• Marcus Colla on certain-boredom-taking-stock-democracy-2019
• Martina Lawless on economic-and-social-review-autumn-2019
• Macro Musings on new-policy-brief-on-ngdplt
• stumbling and mumbling on on-commodification
• Menzie Chinn on probability-of-the-u-s-or-world-entering-a-recession-in-2020, is-world-trade-volume-a-leading-indicator
• Davis Uren on rare-earths-is-there-a-case-for-government-intervention Thanks Stephen Kirchner
• stumbling and mumbling on financialization-as-symptom
• Roger Farmer on how-economics-can-help-to-improve-peoples-lives
• the conversable economist on oreign-exchange-markets-66-trillion-per-day, the-economics-nobel-who-might-have-won

General

• Rebecca Allen on red-planet-rumbles-nasas-recordings-of-marsquakes-let-us-listen-to-the-martian-heartbeat
• Lucyna Kedziora- Chudczer on saturn-has-more-moons-than-jupiter-but-why-are-we-only-finding-out-about-them-now

Climate

• Hotwhopper on a-short-primer-on-global-energy-flows
• and Then Theres Physics on extinction-rebellion-2
• Moyhu on september-global-surface-templs-down-from-august
• Open Mind on sea-level-rise-2, global-temperature-evolution-1950-to-2018, sea-level-acceleration-3
• David Hall on climate-explained-why-some-people-still-think-climate-change-isnt-real
• Greg Jericho on if-you-are-under-34-youve-experienced-just-one-month-of-below-average-temperatures
• Stoat on institute-of-economic-affairs-in-shocker

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• kaiser-fung-suggests-20-paper-ideas-pre-approved-for-prestigious-journals
• more-on-that-4-20-road-rage-dude
• carol-nickerson
• are-statistical-nitpickers-e-g-kaiser-fung-and-me-getting-the-way-of-progress-or-even-serving-the-forces-of-evil
• bizstat-modeling-performance-indicators-for-deals
• glenn-shafer-the-language-of-betting-as-a-strategy-for-statistical-and-scientific-communication
• automation-and-judgment-from-the-rational-animal-to-the-irrational-machine
• elsevier-association-for-psychological-science
• whats-the-p-value-good-for-i-answer-some-questions
• dans-paper-corner-yes-it-does-work

Genial Dave Giles ( econometrics)

• october-reading
• No Hesitations on large-dimensional-factor-analysis-with-missing-data
• Econometric Sense on wicked-problems-and-role-of-expertise-and-AI-in-data-science

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• complexity-across-boundaries
• Tyler Cowen on the-two-must-read-books-on-pakistan

Vox Wonk

• clean-water-rule-and-economic-research-us-water-pollution-regulation
• converging-military-spending-and-its-fiscal-consequences
• political-bias-and-economic-impact-chinese-aid
• gender-discrimination-small-business-lending
• changing-business-cycles-role-women-s-employment
• global-banks-and-synthetic-funding
• effect-trade-policy-shocks-multinational-enterprise-activities
• herd-behaviour-asset-markets-role-monetary-policy
• effectiveness-export-promotion-measures
• chinese-urban-elite-transformation-between-1988-and-2013
• how-different-technologies-affect-different-workers
• strong-economy-strong-currency
• e-cigarette-taxation-pre-pregnancy-and-pre-natal-smoking-and-birth-outcomes

Bushfires. Why so early explained

Chris Lucas and Sarah Harris do a public service on showing us their long research on this topic.

Australia could achieve 700% renewables

I knew that would get you.
Australia is in a fantastic place to become a renewable powerhouse.

China Is it a developing or developed country. No big deal

A provocative article on whether China is a developing or developed country.

A really good read!

Around the Traps 4/10/19

It is time again for Around the Traps

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Croaking Cassandra on how-unusual-is-australia-record-without-recessions, a-rather-well-paid-governor, not-doing-very-well-at-all, on-the-anniversary-of-the-ccp-seizing-power, reserve-bank-annual-reports-2, big-policy-choices-should-be-for-politicians-that-is-their-job, orr-on-bank-capital
• Peter Martin on the-dirty-secret-at-the-heart-of-the-projected-budget-surplus-much-higher-tax-bills, five-questions-about-superannuation-the-governments-new-inquiry-will-need-to-ask, 0-75-is-a-record-low-but-dont-think-for-a-second-the-reserve-bank-has-finished-cutting-the-cash-rate
• Nicolla McGarrity and Jessie blackbourn on australia-has-enacted-82-anti-terror-laws-since-2001-but-tough-laws-alone-wont-make-us-safer
• renew economy on aemo-warns-of-added-costs-and-delays-to-new-solar-projects-in-victoria-nsw, red-flags-across-the-grid-new-technologies-hobbled-by-old-thinking
• Tony Walker on developing-rift-points-to-growing-divisions-between-coalition-and-labor-on-china
• Nick Gruen on some-thoughts-from-on-high
• Keiran Hardy on australias-quest-for-national-security-is-undermining-the-courts-and-could-lead-to-secretive-trials
• Lin Crase on just-because-both-sides-support-drought-relief-doesnt-mean-its-right
• Sarah Ann Wheeler on scarcity-drives-water-prices-not-government-water-recovery-new-research
• Greg Barton on australia-isnt-taking-the-national-security-threat-from-far-right-extremism-seriously-enough
• Richard Holden on vital-signs-yes-house-prices-will-rise-with-lower-interest-rates-but-thats-not-the-only-effect
• Greg Jericho on rba-is-cutting-rates-because-the-government-has-abandoned-responsibility-for-economic-growth

Northern America

• No more Mister on we-might-have-impeachment-now-because-they-found-a-way-to-make-it-centrist
• Menzie Chinn on the-economic-consequences-of-trumps-war-on-multilateralism
• Barkley Rosser on the-new-us-japan-trade-agreement
• the conversable economist on employment-patterns-for-older-americans
• Alex Ward on trump-barr-ukraine-australia-italy-uk-conspiracy
• Drumil Mehata on on-fox-trump-is-not-at-the-center-of-the-ukraine-story
• Daniel Flitton on donald-trumps-bizarre-logic-damages-us-allies-trust-in-intelligence-sharing, jumping-shadows-great-aussie-conspiracy-bring-down-donald
• James Hamilton on john-williams-on-monetary-policy-and-the-current-economic-outlook
• Robert E Kelly on impeachment-will-stabilise-us-foreign-policy
• David Remnick on the-floodgates-open-on-trump
• David Graham on trump-wants-raise-cost-holding-him-account
• Menzie Chinn on james-hamilton-at-uw-madison-predicting-the-next-recession
• Erin Hurley on democrats-and-impeachment-leap-faith
• Maggie Keorth-Baker on why-partisans-look-at-the-same-evidence-on-ukraine-and-see-wildly-different-things

Europe

• Lisa Semchuk on in-ukraine-donald-trump-impeachment-controversy-is-an-unwanted-distraction-for-volodymyr-zelensky
• Mainly Macro on this-is-most-dangerous-uk-government-we-have-known-in-our-lifetimes, how-brexiters-have-controlled-narrative-about-brexit
• long and variable on monetary-policy-delegation-rebounded-and-an-odd-trade-off
• Jim Butler on boris-johnsons-brexit-plan-what-his-party-conference-speech-revealed
• Menzie Chinn on guest-contribution-its-finally-time-for-german-fiscal-expansion

Asia

• Amanda Tattersal on with-no-end-in-sight-and-the-world-losing-interest-the-hong-kong-protesters-need-a-new-script
• Natasha Bhagsar on indias-rcep-reticence
• Taylor Dibbert on sri-lanka-election-bumps-ahead
• Emma Palmer on can-icc-bring-justice-myanmar

Wonk

• Tim Harford on the-curious-economics-of-being-ripped-off-on-holiday
• the conversable economist on trade-perils-of-overstating-benefits, are-clos-new-cdos, the-dispersion-of-high-and-low-productivity-firms-within-an-industry, challenges-facing-arab-development-model
• Tyler Cowen on economists-have-not-exactly-screwed-things-up
• Peter Robertson on chinas-military-might-is-much-closer-to-the-us-than-you-probably-think
• Andrea Carson and Kate Farhall on the-real-news-on-fake-news-politicians-use-it-to-discredit-media-and-journalists-need-to-fight-back
• Darren Acemoglu et al on The consequences of radical reform: The French Revolution Thanks Peter Whiteford
• Paul Fritjers on is-trump-a-blessing-in-disguise-for-world-peace
• Lorenzo on giving-something-away-for-free-is-not-a-sign-of-it-having-value
• Uneasy Money on jack-schwartz-on-the-weaknesses-of-the-mathematical-mind

General

• Jenny Graves on curious-kids-how-do-scientists-know-evolution-is-real

Climate

• and Then Theres Physics on should-climate-scientists-admit-failure
• Open Mind on greenland-melt, climate-deniers-deny-temperature-itself, climate-change-in-vino-veritas, climate-deniers-long-term-annoyance
• Stoat on new-ipcc-report-considered-dull
• Amelie Meyer on winter-storms-are-speeding-up-the-loss-of-arctic-sea-ice
• Georgia Grant and Timothy Naish on if-warming-exceeds-2-c-antarcticas-melting-ice-sheets-could-raise-seas-20-metres-in-coming-centuries
• Moyhu on september-ncepncar-global-surface-anomaly-up-in-august

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• controversies-in-the-theory-of-measurement-in-mathematical-psychology
• heres-a-supercool-controversy-for-ya
• convergence-diagnostics-for-markov-chain-simulation
• troubling-trends-in-machine-learning-scholarship
• many-perspectives-on-deborah-mayos-statistical-inference-as-severe-testing-how-to-get-beyond-the-statistics-wars
• that-study-about-the-health-risks-of-red-meat-an-excellent-news-report
• less-wow-and-more-how-in-social-psychology
• the-map-is-not-the-territory
• schoolmarms-and-lightning-bolts-data-faker-meets-edge-foundation-in-an-unintentional-reveal-of-problems-with-the-great-man-model-of-science
• jeff-leek-data-science-education-as-an-economic-and-public-health-intervention-how-statisticians-can-lead-change-in-the-world
• p-value-of-10-74-disappears
• golf-example-now-a-stan-case-study

Genial Dave Giles ( econometrics)

• No Hestiations on krusell-on-economics-of-climate

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• Erin Hurley on educated-idealist-still-believer
• Andreas Ortmann on review-katy-barnetts-the-earth-below

Vox wonk

• financial-development-london-17th-century-revisited
• cannabis-prices-dark-web
• managing-shocks-worker-productivity
• comparing-non-performing-asset-measures-across-countrie
• technology-adoption-machine-imports
• monetary-policy-bubbly-world
• upside-unconventional-monetary-policy-central-bank-balance-sheet-risks
• optimal-inflation-target-face-lower-r-star
• post-referendum-rise-import-costs-has-hurt-uk-workers
• it-revolution-and-southern-europes-two-lost-decades
• why-japan-lost-its-comparative-advantage-producing-electronic-parts-and-components
• how-firms-should-apologise
• we-cannot-build-our-way-out-inequality
• political-and-economic-drivers-pogroms
• euro-area-monetary-policy-event-study-database
• world-wide-currency
• regulating-doom-loop
• deep-recessions-large-immigration-waves-and-rise-populism
• efficiency-job-separations
• dimensions-ecb-policy-communication-and-their-financial-market-effects
• emergence-big-tech-financial-intermediation