Trump cutting Regulations

Timothy Taylor examines the Trump Administration's plan to cut regulations.
He finds good and bad points.
You need to read it all to find his conclusion. Soony definitely needs to read it!

Global sea levels

A lot has been written about sea levels and climate change. Tamino comes to the rescue to show us not only the actual levels but also how climate sceptics ( please note Steve how it is spelled) misuse the data.

Double entry book-keeping

I think double entry book-keeping was one of the greatest concepts ever thought of. Indeed it could well have provided one of the main boosts to capitalism becoming the overwhelming force it has been.
Tim Harford has both a short but highly informative article on who was responsible for double entry n book-keeping.

With politics being so depressive both domestically and internationally an article on something completely different is required.

Around the Traps 27/10/17

It is time for Around the Traps

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Robert Merkel on ive-always-wondered-why-do-our-computing-devices-seem-to-slow-down
• Ross Guest on financial-literacy-is-a-public-policy-problem
• Stephen Duckett on assisted-dying-is-one-thing-but-governments-must-ensure-palliative-care-is-available-to-all-who-need-it
• Andrew Leigh on choosing-openness-andrew-leigh-responds
• Peter Layton on north-korea-letter-reading-between-lines
• Croaking Cassandra on the-1987-crash-experience-and-reflection , wishful-australian-thinking , the-new-governments-immigration-policy, reflecting-on-foreign-ownership , a-possible-new-policy-targets-agreement
• Michael Woods on why-reforming-health-care-is-integral-for-our-economy
• Jim Minifie on five-ways-to-kickstart-the-economy-without-cutting-company-taxes
• Tooran Alizadeh on turnbulls-government-must-accept-responsibility-for-delivering-an-equitable-nbn-for-all-australians
• Simon Holmes a Court on back-to-square-one-in-energy-policy-we-now-have-a-plan-to-produce-a-plan
• Rod Tucker on 5g-will-be-a-convenient-but-expensive-alternative-to-the-nbn
• Peter Newton on becoming-more-urban-attitudes-to-medium-density-living-are-changing-in-sydney-and-melbourne
• Zoran Ritzoski and Nic Surawski on australia-still-lags-behind-in-vehicle-emissions-testing
• The Kouk on employment-the-odd-one-out-or-is-the-economy-booming
• Yee Fui Ng on the-case-of-michaelia-cash-and-her-leaking-adviser-illustrates-a-failure-of-ministerial-responsibility
• Gabrielle Appleby on reflecting-on-foreign-ownership
• Greg Jericho on why-this-government-cant-put-good-economic-advice-to-productive-use

Northern America

• Macro Musings on financial-regulatory-laffer-curve
• The Conversable economist on after-incarceration-how-and-male-labor-participation,almost-10-billion-hours-of-government
• Noah Smith on taylor-and-his-rule-are-not-what-the-fed-needs
• Larry Summers on one-last-time-on-who-benefits-from-corporate-tax-cuts, what-i-do-support-in-a-new-tax-plan Thanks Mark
• Tim Duy on in-defense-of-the-conventional-wisdom
• Ann Maria Barry-Jester on a-state-by-state-guide-to-those-wonky-obamacare-payments-you-keep-hearing-about
• Dylan Mathews on gold-star-widow-trump-la-david-johnson
• Jared Bernstein on when-econ-models-potentially-mislead-econ-profs-should-say-so Thanks Brad
• James A Roberts on is-realdonaldtrump-addicted-to-twitter
• Robert Waldmann on corporate-profit-tax-cuts-and-wages-silly-theory
• Mark Thoma gives us Kruggers on the-doctrine-of-trumpal-infallibility
• Calculated Risk on a-few-comments-on-september-new-home
• Carola Binder on is-taylor-hawk-or-not
• Perry Bacon on the-last-hurrah-caucus-in-the-senate-now-has-the-power-to-kill-trumps-agenda
• Kruggers on trumps-700-billion-foreign-aid-program, the-simple-and-misleading-analytics-of-a-corporate-tax-cut-more-wonkery
• Growth economics on Investment
• Regulatory Review on pierce-energy-tariff-disastrous

Europe

• Tim Harford on fatal-attraction-of-fake-facts-sours-political-debate
• stumbling and mumbling on why-conservatives-should-be-corbynistas , brexit-risk-attitudes
• Thomas Piketty on budget-2018-french-youth-sacrified Thanks Mark
• long and variable on stopping-brexit-wont-take-the-economy-back-onto-its-pre-referendum-path
• Progrowth liberal on corporate-profit-tax-cuts-and-wages-uk
• Mainly Macro on a-european-monetary-fund, why-is-uk-making-such-mess-of-a50
• Daniel Woker on populism-nationalism-separatism-eu-new-and-old-challenge

Asia

• RB Myerson on on-the-problem-of-commitment-in-korea Thanks Mark
• Albert Palazzo on war-korean-peninsula-targeting-better-peace
• Michael Leach on timor-leste-return-belligerent-democracy
• Nicole F Freiner on japans-vote-for-abe-could-worsen-prospects-for-peace-with-north-korea-china
• Lydia Khalil on kurdistan-s-history-political-infighting
• Michael Clarker on belt and road a sprawling agenda with a core purpose
• Barkely Rosser on marxism-leninism-in-china-update
• Rodger Shanahan  on kurds-aren-t-always-good-guys
• Simone Van Neiuwnhuizen on xi-jinping-orwell-china-politics
• Susan Hutchinson and Nikki Marczak on ongoing-plight-yazidis

Wonk

• Barkley Rosser on remembering-black-monday
• The Conversable economist on cicero-on-grazing-money-lending-and-murder, mysteries-of-modern-inflation , increasing-womens-labor-force-participation
• Bank Underground on a-loopy-model-of-inflation,  does-domestic-uncertainty-really-matter-for-the-economy , do-investors-amplify-or-cushion-corporate-bond-market-sell-offsThanks Mark
• Uneasy Money on the-standard-narrative-on-the-history-of-macroeconomics-an-exercise-in-self-serving-apologetics
• Jim Rose on peak-hour-traffic-congestion-is-inevitable-and-efficient
• Mike Callaghan on future-role-international-financial-institutions
• stumbling and mumbling on capitalist-triumphalism-a-brief-history
• Brad De Long on basic-econ-1-level-tax-incidence-primer-owen-zidar-requests-moar-tax-incidence-model-blogging
• Robert Waldmann on top-marginal-tax-rates-and-economic-growth
• Nick Rowe on the-differences-between-a-governments-budget-and-a-households-budget 

General

• Jamie Walvisch on fingerprinting-to-solve-crimes-not-as-robust-as-you-think
• Tim Harford on was-luca-pacioli-overrated
• Understanding Society on intergenerational-social-mobility
• Joan Acocella on how-martin-luther-changed-the-world

Climate

• Cassandra's Legacy on linking-hurricanes-to-climate-change
• and Then Theres Physics on infrared-absorption-of-atmospheric-carbon-dioxide , watt-about-breaking-the-pal-review-glass-ceiling
• Tamino on what-is-sea-level-up-to-lately
• the conversable economist on the-immediate-global-costs-of-pollution
• Ari Jokimaki on f13_reflist_other
• John Quiggin on the-end-of-fossil-fuels-some-data-and-quick-calculations

Andrew Gelman (mainly stats)

• discuss-research-findings-without-getting-hypothesis-testing
• traffic-congestion-make-men-beat-wives
• network-models-bayesian-workflow
• publicity-factory-even-serious-research-gets-exaggerated-process-scientific-publication-publicity
• I-think-it-is-great-to-have-work-criticized-strangers-online
• open-source-software-world-bug-reports-welcome-science-publication-world-bug-reports-resisted-opposed-buried
• want-know-basketball-ya-gonna-trust-irene-blecker-rosenfeld-professor-psychology-cornell-university-author-wisest-one-room-can-benefit
• science-funding-political-ideology
• an-alternative-to-the-superplot
• favorite-definition-statistical-significance
• advice-for-science-writers
• Moyhu on averaging-and-error-propagation-random-walk-math
• Kaiser Fung on the-whole-foods-pricing-trick
• statschat on bogus-poll-headlines, questions-to-ask , not-science-yet-2
• Junkcharts on three-pies-and-a-bar-serving-visual-goodness
• John Cook on differential-equations-and-recurrence-relations
• Rick Wicklin on should-you-use-principal-component-regression
• Kaiser Fung on the-whole-foods-pricing-trick , another-day-another-fake-data-scandal-this-time-its-twitter

Genial Dave Giles (econometrics)

• another-shout-out-for-replication-network
• No Hesitations on pockets-of-predictability
• Marc Bellamare on generated regressors

Dianne Coyle (quirky + book readings)

• economics-for-good
• what-do-software-developers-really-do
• Mainly Macro on dani-rodrik-talks-straight-on-trade
• econjeff on book-k-blows-top-by-peter-carlson

Vox Wonk

• impact-religious-values-economic-growth-and-productivity
• taxes-and-market-hours-role-gender-and-skill
• business-cycle-stabilisation-eurozone
• measuring-racial-segregation-urban-consumption
• interpreting-ecb-s-definition-price-stability
• economic-factors-1896-presidential-election
• elusive-inflation-and-great-recession
• understanding-destination-based-approach-business-taxation
• improving-patient-care-using-clinical-guidelines-and-judgement
• screening-patent-quality
• employment-and-output-effects-short-time-work-germany
• tyranny-benchmarks
• corruption-uncertainty-and-corporate-practices

The Michaelia Cash Imbroglio

Late yesterday Michaelia Cash announced one of her staffers had told the media of the AFP raid on the AWU premises. ( This is a good synopsis).
Her staffer , whom Coalition MPs says us a very good staffer has resigned. the said MPS say he has paid the ultimate price for poor judgement.
This 'Very good' staffer had the opportunity to tell his Minister what he had did all day ( some Opposition MPs say at least 5 times) yet did not until the end of the day. This staff member did not tell his minister nor the PM on the day.

The government is relying on we are hopeless excuse. If you are John Howard and lead a competent government you can get away with it. I very much doubt if this present government can get away from it. It seems every time they try to do Bill Shorten it blows up in their face.

I would say too many times the media are alerted to police raids  both at State and Federal level. It is a bad look.

Update:
no explanation how the media advisor knew of the raids when her office was only notified 15 minutes before they occurred. Either the AFP or ROC leaked this to the advisor. Not hard to bet on whom it was.
I just learnt Albo spurted out most of this on morning radio in SA around 9 a.m. there. Chrisdtopher Pyne who was also on the radio never thought to investigate this!!
Interesting perspective on Ministerial responsibility

Croaking Cassandra skewers Nick Cater.

Croaking Cassandra has another article today which shows Nick Cater of the Menzies Institute in a very bad light.

It is like the Kouk giving Sloan or Davidson a black eye when they attempt to examine budgetary policy or understand the National Accounts.
The Australian plainly had no qualitative check nor asks the simplest of questions.

Why is it people who claim to to conservatives in Australia are either so lazy not to do much research or completely ignorant on the topic on which they are writing?
I note the CIS which was quite competent in the 80s has gone downhill badly as well.

The NBN

Ttoday I will pen a small piece on the NBN and tomorrow on the politics of the energy market.

When the NBN first started it occurred because the major telco companies thought they had the Government in a corner. If they did not bid then The government would have to come to them for building the wholesale market and it would be on their terms.

The government then said no they would build it via a corporate structure called the NBN which would be privatised at some time in the future.  This was always an absurd proposition. Telstra had shown it was incapable of developing the wholesale market.
It is ironic some conservative critics such as Ergas a or Sloan criticised the NBN as a monopoly without EVER talking about the past and Telstra's position. ( Ergas who worked for Telstra then criticised the NBN on grounds he defended Telstra for in the past!)

The government decided to have fibre to the premises. This was almost future proof as there was almost unlimited speeds you could have when using  fibre optic cable. Thus Australians could gain speeds never dreamed of if they were willing to pay for it.

The other major reason much forgotten for choosing this was to boost decentralisation. If companies in the regions had equal access to the internet it would mean they were no longer at a disadvantage compared to city businesses.
A change of government meant change the NBN. Thus fibre to the node was born. The very last bit of the process could be copper or other technologies used. The government was warned the further from the node customers were , be they families or businesses, the slower the speeds.

This has occurred.

The government is now being hoisted on their own petard. The major problems of the NBN were easily foreseen and well known before they started to proceed. They went ahead because of political reasons.

The internet in Australia was in the stone age before the NBN. Mobile internet via 4G or the forthcoming 5G is not a competitor in that if all Australians had monthly mobile internet it would be as slow as old get up. ( See Rod Tucker) something Sinclair Davidson patently does not understand.  Try using it at a major sporting event.

What should the Governments had done. It was always going to be a long set up period. Accept that and more importantly tell the public that.
The areas that got the ORIGINAL NBN should have been selected on economic not political reasons. How ironic selecting them on political reasons blew up in their face anyway.

Brilliant exposition on the ABC. HERE

The Protestant work ethic

Surely one of the more controversial theories was that by Max Weber when he associated the rise of capitalism with the Protestant work ethic. Richard Tawney further consolidated this later.

Now in Vox wonk as I call it there is a small article that examines Cistercian catholic order in the early 11th Century.

This completely wipes out Weber's thesis you say. not at all. They say  That the Cistercians, a Catholic order, had this effect does not at all detract from the point that Weber made, and in fact our analysis leads us to expect that Protestant teachings resulted in a similar process of growth through cultural change.

Read it and enjoy.

A Few Things

Junior Representative Season ( it is U/10 to U/16) is here so I am very busy on the weekends. One good thing is I get to go to Evening Church with my oldest. They have some good musos  playing!

In no particular order of importance at all.

1) Steve from Brisbane sums up Trumps latest embarrassing lie quite well.see Dylan Mathews as well. Trump simply has no shamev at all.

2) Katesy proves he should have never been let into this country. She wants to improve it not get rid of it. Strong hint. Was nationalisation  writ large in their policy platform for the election?

3) What idiot at the World Health Organisation nominated Robert Mugabe as their goodwill ambassador. Take a look at what this tyrant has done to his country's health system for a start!

4) Sydney derby was another top notch effort. Good refereeing, good play and a good crowd but it should have been a sell-out. no happy Sydney FC!

5) The Lisa Wilkinson imbroglio is interesting. Equal pay. I think not. Karl does a lot more at the Station than she. I have said previously it was good unattractive women gets gigs on TV and not just bathing beauties. I must say Wilkinson shows no personality at all.What should have been the story is both get way overpaid and they do not even win the ratings!

6) Moyhu wonders why climate denialists do not understand simple stats

7) Just read this provocative piece by Chris Dillow on why-conservatives-should-be-corbynistas

Around the Traps 20/10/17

It is time again for Around the Traps

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Stephen Duckett on changes-to-lure-young-people-into-private-health-insurance-wont-slow-increase-in-premiums
• Phil Lewis on middle-income-earners-probably-wont-be-paying-as-much-tax-as-the-government-expects
• Croaking Cassandra on debate-debased , ocr-cuts-as-plausible-as-increases , the-tech-sector-and-ongoing-economic-underperformance,reforming-the-reserve-bank-some-challenges-for-the-new-government , oia-unexpected-bouquets-and-brickbats
• David Blowers on how-the-national-energy-guarantee-could-work-better-than-a-clean-energy-target
• The Kouk on what-bubble-the-financial-sector-is-fighting-fit
• Nick Gruen on things-worth-doing-tackling-child-poverty-edition , vale-the-car-industry
• John Quiggin on the-governments-energy-policy-hinges-on-some-tricky-wordplay-about-coals-role
• Alan Pears et al on federal-government-unveils-national-energy-guarantee-experts-react
• Michael Slezak on why-turnbulls-new-energy-plan-may-not-be-so-good-for-coal-explainer , national-energy-guarantee-is-innovative-says-bloomberg-analysis 
• Frank Jotzo and salim Mazouz on will-the-national-energy-guarantee-hit-pause-on-renewables
• Lorana Bartels on is-victorias-sentencing-regime-really-more-lenient
• Richard Holden on vital-signs-economics-cant-explain-why-unemployment-and-inflation-are-both-low
• Greg Jericho on cutting-company-tax-costs-money-and-middle-income-earners-will-pay
• Euan Graham on australia-navy-needs-mind-missile-gap
• Nick Gruen on public-organisations-and-political-advocacy

Northern America

• JB Silvers on why-trumps-executive-order-may-compound-the-health-insurance-industrys-problems
• Ben Rich on why-trumps-decertification-of-the-iran-nuclear-deal-may-prove-a-costly-mistake
• Rodger Shanahan on trump-iran-speaking-loudly-and-carrying-small-stick
• John Colarusso on all-the-lessons-donald-trump-has-taught-us
• Kumuda Simpson on in-trump-we-trust-why-continual-disasters-fail-to-shake-the-presidents-loyalists
• Kruggers on subsidies-spite-and-supply-chains , some-misleading-geometry-on-corporate-taxes-wonkish
• Barkely Rosser on trump-fails-to-certify-jcpoa-iran-deal
• Progrowth liberal on the-incidence-of-obamacare-subsidies
• Sandwichman on the-case-of-spitting-legionnaire
• Tim Duy on is-the-fed-setting-itself-up-to-fail-in-the-next-recession , incoming-data-supportive-of-december-rate-hike Thanks Mark
• Oliver Roeder on the-supreme-court-is-allergic-to-math
• Larry Summers on doubt-any-republican-economists-will-associate-with-hassetts-analysis Thanks Mark
• Yochi Dreazen on trump-lie-obama-call-dead-troops-military-tweets
• FRB on oil-price-pass-through-into-core-inflation Thanks Mark
• Robert Schiller on stock-market-crash-1987 Thanks Mark
• Macroblog on how-ill-a-wind-hurricanes-impacts-on-employment-and-earnings Thanks Mark
• Jared Bernstein on i-got-issues-with-the-new-cea-report Thanks Mark
• Justin Fox on applying-the-dow-36-000-discount-to-trump-s-tax-cuts Thanks Mark
• The Conversable economist on teacher-absenteeism-in-us
• Mark Thoma givers us Kruggers on /paul-krugman-trump-trade-and-tantrums

Europe

• Tim Harford on echoes-of-a-bygone-age-show-britain-losing-its-sense-of-direction
• long and variable on no-deal-spending-isnt-a-complete-waste-of-money-mr-hammond
• The Conversable economist on housing-markets-european-perspective

Asia

• Richard Hadarian on putting-duterte-s-popularity-perspective
• Rajni Gamage on myanmar-s-evolving-maritime-security-landscape
• Anthony Ricketts on iraq-kurds-mess-america-made
• Rodger Shanahan on  kurdistan-s-strategic-overreach
• Peter Layton on trumpian-track-our-next-middle-eastern-war
• Barkley Rosser on iraq-conquers-kirkuk , marxism-leninism-and-chinese-communist-party-congress
• Shashank Joshi on tillerson-doubles-down-us-india-partnership
• Sidney Jones on after-isnilon-hapilon-s-death-and-liberation-marawi
• Merriden Varrall on 19th-party-congress-xi-mid-term-appraisal

Wonk

• Jason Pallant on how-marketers-use-algorithms-to-try-to-read-your-mind 
• Mainly Macro on how-neoliberals-weaponise-the-concept-of-the-ideal-market, the-lesson-monetary-policy-needs-to-learn , forecast-errors-compared
• Jim Rose on room-for-honest-disagreement-on-tax-policy
• Croaking Cassandra on active-monetary-exists-because-unemployment-matters
• Quantitative Ease on rethinking-macroeconomic-policy
• Coppolla comment on aftershocks
• Noah Smith on fixing-macroeconomics-will-be-really-hard
• The Conversable economist on world-development-report-2018
• stumbling and mumbling on why-im-not-a-lefty
• FRBSF on has-wage-phillips-curve-gone-dormant Thanks Mark
• Brad Setser on three-items-of-note Thanks Mark
• stumbling and mumbling on on-cutting-house-prices
• Michael Heazle and John Kane on populism-globalisation-and-failure-elites
• The Everyday Economist on the-law-of-reflux-returns Thanks Mark
• Nick Gruen on what-have-wellbeing-frameworks-ever-done-for-us-part-one
• Ryan Advent on both-monetary-policy-and-fiscal-policy-answers-remain-contentious Thanks Brad

General

• Bianca Fileborn on what-the-harvey-weinstein-case-tells-us-about-sexual-assault-disclosure
• David Lindenmayer on more-sightings-of-an-endangered-species-dont-always-mean-its-recovering
• David Blair on at-last-weve-found-gravitational-waves-from-a-collapsing-pair-of-neutron-stars
• The Conversable economist on unline-dating-and-interracial-marriage
• Mike Kimel on race-is-a-social-construct
• Lorenzo on sex-and-gender

Climate

• Adam Morton on world-going-slow-coal-misinformation-distorting-facts
• and Then Theres Physics on bruno-latour
• Environmental economics on wither-coal-despite-all-attempts-to-the-contrary-whats-next
• Diana Schoder on how much is clean air worth Thanks Mark
• Moyhu on giss-september-down-004-from-august
• Peter Christoff on rising-dragon-chinas-carbon-market-exposes-australias-energy-paralysis
• John Abraham on clifi-new-way-talk-climate
• Ari Jokimati on  f13_content_analysis
• Stochastic Trend on barcelona-talk 

Andrew Gelman (mainly stats)

• mick-cooney-case-study-modeling-loss-curves-insurance-rstan
• bayesian-evidence-synthesis
• stan-case-studies-2
• freelance-orphans-33-comparisons-4-statistically-significant-much-1-65-expected-chance-alone-whats-problem
• beyond-forking-paths-interesting-project-using-multilevel-modeling-figure-can-learned-survey
• analyzing-new-zealand-fatal-traffic-crashes-stan-added-open-access-science
• perpetual-motion-machines-embodied-cognition-boundaries-pseudoscience-pushed-back-trivial
• no-tradeoff-regularization-discovery
• beyond-power-pose-using-replication-failures-better-understanding-data-collection-analysis-better-science
• think-top-batting-average-will-higher-311-pooling-point-predictions-bayesian-inference
• la-critique-est-la-vie-de-la-science-kinda-get-annoyed-people-set-voice-reason-dont-ever-get-around-explaining-whats-unreasonable-thing-dislike
• barry-gibb-came-fourth-barry-gibb-look-alike-contest
• Rick Wicklin on graphs-for-multiple-comparisons-of-means-the-lines-plot , the-diffogram-and-other-graphs-for-multiple-comparisons-of-means
• John Cook on weierstrass , common-words-that-have-a-technical-meaning-in-math

Genial Dave Giles (econometrics)

• nuttin not happy Dave!😢

• Dianne Coyle (quirky + book reviews)

• the-weaponization-of-trade
• economic-observation
• Nicholas Lemann on hating-on-herbert-hoover

Vox wonk

• international-value-added-linkages-development-accounting
• evidence-based-policy-boost-skills-latin-america-and-caribbean
• global-risks-rising-debt-and-asset-prices
• labour-market-based-knowledge-spillovers
• brexit-cry-financial-pain-not-influence-old
• making-globalisation-more-inclusive
• central-bank-evolution-and-innovation
• bail-ins-and-bailouts-incentives-connectivity-and-systemic-stability
• four-proposals-help-commodity-exporters-cope-price-volatility
• brexit-economics-international-disintegration
• city-size-and-economic-growth
• 323-years-uk-national-debt
• consumption-boosting-effects-tokyo-olympics-and-paralympics
• real-costs-free-university
• short-term-impact-brexit-uk-exports

Trump again

Trump again showing in essence no class at all.
so what do we know about him as President.

• He is old, fat and lazy. 
• He rarely understands his one page very generalised briefs  
• He loses his concentration very easily
• He gets into tantrums very easily
• He lies all the time ( see HERE and HERE in more detail) 
• He doubles down every time he is caught out.
• He does not possess empathy 
• He is a very poor speaker
• He is easily the most stupid person to be in the office in my living memory ( see transcript of talk with Our PM)
• He is a woeful negotiator ( see transcript of talk with Mexican President)
• He pays more attention to Fox and Friends and Breitbart than to his own advisors
• He is a sucker for fake news. (See above) 
• He hates the continual leaking within his Administration

Add to that what we knew before hand

• He trades in his wives for the new model
• He is ill informed and ignorant on most topics
• He has never grown up
• He has little understanding of social mores
• He regularly abuses people
• He hates criticism
• He hates being found out

Let us take but one example. He threatens North Korea with military force yet everyone knows he will not use force because of the deadly consequences for South Korea. Is he that stupid?

LUNATICS still support him though. Mind you they are as ignorant and ill informed as he.

The National Energy Target

The Government announced its National Energy Target yesterday.  We still have plenty of detail to come.

I agree with David Blowers who says how-the-national-energy-guarantee-could-work-better-than-a-clean-energy-target.

Has Turnbull and Frydenburg given us a clean energy target through other means.
 I totally agree when Blowers states  'The National Energy Guarantee is not the best policy solution. A carbon price imposed on electricity generators may have avoided the need for either of the two “guarantees” contained in the NEG. But the political reality is that a carbon price of any sort is not going to be adopted in Australia any time soon. '

A price of carbon is easily the best solution. This was recognised by John Howard way back in 2007.It means coal is no longer subsidised by consumers because their externalities are NOT internalised.
People who believe in markets would support such a solution. It is a great pity this no longer exists in the Liberal party. It has of course rarely existed in the National party.

update:

John Quiggin
Alan Pears et al
Frank Jotzo and Salim Mazouz

I should add please note that john shows how different dispatchable power is to base load power. Abbott will be furious.
Also note the ALP have NOT said they will oppose this. I doubt if they will. They will make much of no modelling at all but we might just might have a bi-partisan policy here. Thanks you Malcolm.

Further Update.

The benefits of cap and trade are  larger than once thought

Are 631 coal plants being built around the world?

I read this a while ago and thought this made little sense. The economics could not be that different to what it is in Australia.

Adam Morton examines this claim and finds it wanting.  There is a large difference between units and plants for example.

Related to this is why the war on coal is over and coal lost.

Also Environmental Economics on wither-coal-despite-all-attempts-to-the-contrary-whats-next

Greg Jericho absolutely flays Tony Abbott

Greg Jericho goes to town on Tony Abbott's speech.

I was wondering when someone would point out to this dunce and other deniers that a warming world has actually been examined and that it causes more problems than solutions. A warmer Europe might be okay for some but try telling those in South East Asia that a warmer world is good for everyone!

The more and more Tony Abbott seeks publicity the more and more sillier he gets hypocrisy aside. He was PM remember!

How come Abbott and his fellow travellers in the Government have no idea that new solar and wind generated power is lower coast power than a new coal power plant. Have they ever thought why no-one has put up an idea of putting together a new coal plant?

Around the Traps 13/10/17

It is time for Around the Traps again

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Janet Stanley on competitive-tendering-hasnt-delivered-for-public-transport-so-why-reward-poor-performance
• Euan Graham on modest-proposal-australian-engagement-north-korea
• Croaking Cassandra on exporting-to-a-large-communist-state, a-researcher-responds-to-reddell-on-emissions-and-immigration, australia-does-better-than-us , remoteness-occasionally-a-benefit , implications-of-a-new-government-for-monetary-policy , exchange-rate-volatility-the-new-zealand-story
• Nick Gruen on taking-competitive-neutrality-seriously-my-challenge-to-the-pc, which-bank-could-give-australians-a-better-bang-for-their-buck-the-rba
• Greg Jericho on scott-morrisons-next-trick-selling-a-gst-revenue-cut-to-every-state-bar-one
• Tony Wood on despite-the-charged-atmosphere-frydenberg-and-finkel-have-the-same-goal-for-electricity
• Sam Roggeveen on choosing-openness-misdiagnoses-problem
• Suzanna Fay-Rameriez and Emma Belgrove on oversimplifying-gun-control-issues-can-pose-a-real-threat-to-community-safety
• The Kouk on the-truth-about-our-debt
• John Quiggin on save-the-weekend , slashing-penalty-rates-a-misguided-response-to-problems-of-the-past, why-zero-multifactor-productivity-growth-is-ok-for-oz-very-wonkish
• Greg Jericho on imf-tackles-stalled-wages-growth-with-unusually-radical-thinking
• John Freebairn on three-areas-to-reform-federal-state-financial-relations
• Richard Holden on vital-signs-the-spooky-mortgage-risk-signs-our-bankers-are-ignoring
• Greg Cotton on australia-must-criticise-us-withdrawal-unesco

Northern America

• Olivia Shen on americans-not-so-love-america-first
• Ezra Klein on trump-pence-nfl-distraction
• Calculated Risk on the-record-job-streak-couple-of-comments
• Mark Thoma gives us Tim Duy on fed-watch-on-track-for-a-december-rate-hike , kevin-warsh-very-serious-person
• Macro Musings on from-floor-system-to-corridor-system
• New Deal Democrat on scenes-from-the-september-jobs-report
• Larry Summers on americas-tax-plan-is-not-worth-its-name Thanks Brad
• Menzie Chinn on a-curiously-non-quantitative-assessment-of-deregulation-effects-on-economic-growth
• Brian DeLay on how-the-us-government-created-and-coddled-the-gun-industry
• Calculated Risk on q3-review-ten-economic-questions-for-2017 , key-measures-show-inflation-mostly-below-2%-in-september
• Richard Revesz and Jack Lienke on environmental-protection-obama-pruitt Thanks Mark
• Amy Davidson Sorkin on scott-pruitt-and-donald-trump-further-endanger-the-planet
• Barry Eichengreen on trump-causing-demise-of-dollar-diplomacy Thanks Mark 
• Kruggers on puerto-rico-trump-and-taxes , lies-lies-lies-lies-lies-lies-lies-lies-lies-lies
• Progrowth liberal on puerto-rico-transfer-pricing-and-kevin-hassett
• Zac Beauchamp on trump-nukes-nbc-thousands
• Melina Abdulla on black-lives-matter-is-a-revolutionary-peace-movement
• Uri Friedman on donald-trump-dealbreaker
• Masha Gessen on how-trump-governs-by-tweet-start-with-outrage-then-escalate
• The conversable economist on the-lost-us-lead-in-education
• Dhrumil Mehta on the-media-really-started-paying-attention-to-puerto-rico-when-trump-did
• Nick Bunker on just-how-tight-is-the-u-s-labor-market Thanks Mark
• David Leonhardt on great-depression-recession Thanks Mark

Europe

• Kevin O'Rourke on what-if-it-was-the-europeans-picking-the-cherries
• Paul Fritjers on eu-plans-for-vat-taxation-are-doomed-to-fail-again, observations-lessons-and-predictions-for-the-catalan-situation
• Mainly Macro on the-myth-of-no-deal ,the-impact-of-austerity-in-uk
• Diarmaid Smith on the-irish-labour-market-and-wages
• Mariana Valverde on the-hypocrisy-of-the-european-union-on-the-catalan-referendum

Asia

• Rodger Shanahan on syria-five-stages-grief-part-2
• Anas Intait on palestinian-aid-dwindling-dollars-delivering-little-durable-development
• Graeme Smith on han-opticon-hazards-china-research-xi-era
• Ilan Goldenberg and Mara Karlin on nuclear-iran-deal-trump-jcpoa
• Diana Esfandiary on trump-s-high-risk-iran-strategy
• Bernt Berger on consequences-us-withdrawal-iran-deal
• Menzie Chinn on guest-contribution-10-lessons-for-china-10-years-after-the-subprime-financial-crisis

Wonk

• Mainly Macro on economics-too-much-ideology-too-little-craft
• Peter Dorman on social-justice-debt-solidarity-or-care
• Long and Variable on the-vicious-circle-impeding-the-entry-of-a-new-currency
• Coppolla comment on central-banks-credibility-problem
• The Conversable economist on richard-thaler-2017-nobel-prize-in-economics , formal-jobs-and-decent-work , snapshots-of-global-robotics-industry, independent-workers-and-policy-kruegers-moynihan- lecture
• Tim Harford on why-thalers-nobel-is-a-well-deserved-nudge-for-behavioural-economics
• Stumbling and Mumbling on capitalisms-bad-incentives , the-costs-of-suppression
• Kruggers on the-schlock-of-the-new , rationality-and-rabbit-holes
• Noahopinion on defending-thaler-from-guerrilla-resistance
• Dano Rodrik on poor-economies-growing-without-industrializing
• IMF Blog on inequality-fiscal-policy-can-make-the-difference Thanks Mark 
• Mark Thoma on rethinking-macroeconomic-policy

General

• Understnding society on social-consciousness-and-critical-realism
• Calculated risk on off-topic-art-of-negotiation

Climate

• Kate Sprogis on el-nino-in-the-pacific-has-an-impact-on-dolphins-over-in-western-australia
• Arctic sea ice on piomas-october-2017
• and Then Theres Physics on the-virial-theorem , economics-and-values
• moyhu on september-global-surface-temperature
• Ken Anthony et al on the-great-barrier-reef-can-repair-itself-with-a-little-help-from-science
• Graeme Readfearn on climate-scientists-attack-tony-abbott-misleading-speech-global-warming-policy-foundation

Andrew Gelman (mainly stats)

• respond-e-j-s-response-response-comment-paper-responding-paper
• sudden money
• house-stronger-foundations
• please-contribute-list-top-10-dos-donts-better-science
• splines-stan-spatial-models-stan
• partial-pooling-informative-priors-hierarchical-variance-parameters-next-frontier-multilevel-modeling
• racquetball-save-lives
• want-evidence-based-change-not-peer-review
• congratulations-article-published-ummm
• agree-entirely-way-go-build-model-attitudes-theyre-affected-recent-weather-fit-model-thick-data-rather-zip-try-grab-stat
• Rick Wicklin on order-correlations-by-magnitude , simulate-correlations-by-using-the-wishart-distribution
• Junkcharts on lets-not-mix-these-polarized-voters-as-the-medians-run-away-from-one-another
• Katherine Lee et al on randomised-control-trials-what-makes-them-the-gold-standard-in-medical-research
• Mayo on statistical-skepticism-how-to-use-significance-tests-effectively-7-challenges-how-to-respond-to-them
• Statschat on road-deaths-up

Genial Dave Giles (econometrics)

• november-reading
• No Hesitations on /long-memory-in-realized-volatility

Dianne Coyle (quirky + book reviews)

• urbanites-famers-and-barbarians
• an-arts-interlude
• the-slow-demise-of-a-company-town
• Tim Harford on behavioural-economics-books-to-enjoy

Vox wonk

• bismarck-s-health-insurance-and-its-impact-mortality
• pricing-revolution
• neymar-bubble
• employment-effects-minimum-wages-directions-research
• commodity-booms-and-busts-emerging-economies
• incidence-corporate-taxation-and-implications-tax-progressivity
• economic-effects-goods-and-factor-market-integration
• effective-rewards-whistleblowing
• industrial-robots-and-inclusive-growth
• quantifying-effect-bank-japan-s-equity-purchases
• trade-effects-deep-agreements
• richard-thaler-nobel-laureate
• ten-years-after-crisis-looking-back-looking-forward
• racial-segregation-and-southern-lynching
• spread-populism-western-countries

Keynesian economics without the Phillips curve

From last friday's Around the Traps.  Roger Farmer writes about keynesian-economics-without-the-phillips-curve.
He finds when you replace the phillips curve with his farmer monetary model  policy works a hellva lot better!

Very interesting

We nearly blew it

I kept on thinking last night we would lose.
We created plenty of chances as per usual but we kept on missing those chances as per usual. We gifted Syria an early goal and they took it.

As I have said preciously We have been very unimpressive since winning the Asia cup after which Ange in explicitly changed the system. Whilst we still create chance we are leaky at the back.

The other thing is his selections. Why does he like Brad Smith. He is getting little game time and is a poor player. He was lucky he got injured last night and Mooy replaced him. Mooy played very well. Indeed for the first time Mooy and Rogic clicked in the midfield.

You cannot have Leckie and Kruse in the same team.He is fortunate Leckie cannot play in the first leg. He needs to work out how to attack down the left hand side. He also  needs to get a defensive mid fielder in a hurry.

 Will we get to Russia.

Dunno

HERE is a take on last night

Xenophon goes back to south australia

Having had another Jury service come and go I find Nick Xenophon leaving the Senate to go back to south Australia to fight for a lower house seat.

Why is he doing this. Me thinks the worst that will occur is he will become kingmaker after the next South Australian election ( which is for a fixed term). At best he will become Premier!!

The odds favour the former. his party may win some 'marginal seats on preferences where both major parties preference his party so if they lose the other major party doesn't win. I suspect his party will win several 'safe' liberal seats on Labor party preferences. I doubt if his party will win many 'safe' Labor party seats though.

This makes the next SA election very interesting with no party likely to win a majority of seats so either a coalition will emerge , unlikely in my view, or a minority government will occur where Xenophon gives them support of a confidence motion but negotiates on most legislation.

Interesting times

Around the Traps 7/10/17

It is time again for Around the Traps.
Bugger I hit publish instead of save. Never mind I will just continually update!

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Croaking Cassandra on poor-returns-to-tertiary-education , reserve-bank-annual-reports , on-wages-expectations-and-reality , the-rennie-review-still-secret , the-kowtow, some-australia-perspectives-on-prc-influence-seeking
• Khalid Koser and Rachael Buckland on how-australia-can-help-get-global-compact-refugees-over-line
• Thomas the Think Engine on have-we-found-a-way-to-finally-get-australia-to-do-preventative-spending-on-health
• Ross Gittins on our-bulldust-detectors-are-on-blink
• Kevin Bonham on divergence-in-queensland-polls-is-by-preferences
• Andrew Lenton et al on how-to-work-out-which-coral-reefs-will-bleach-and-which-might-be-spared
• Mariopn Terrill  and Hugh Batrouney on stuck-in-traffic-we-need-a-smarter-approach-to-congestion-than-building-more-roads
• The Kouk on retailers-face-a-tough-christmas
• Bruce Mountain on australian-household-electricity-prices-may-be-25-higher-than-official-reports
• Brendan Gogarty on australias-1-billion-loan-to-adani-is-ripe-for-a-high-court-challenge
• Michael West on why-are-we-still-pursuing-the-adani-carmichael-mine
• David Glance on  when-it-comes-to-the-nbn-we-keep-having-the-same-conversations-over-and-over
• Saul Eslake on is-faster-profit-growth-essential-for-a-pick-up-in-wages-growth
• Greg Jericho on coalitions-economic-gains-mean-labor-must-hold-off-on-the-champagne
• Thomas the Think Engine on Money for Jams
• John Edwards on anti-migrant-sentiment-biggest-threat-openness
• John Quiggin on who-will-pay-for-adanis-infrastructure-we-will
• Liz Hanna on the-reality-of-living-with-50-temperatures-in-our-major-cities
• John Stanford on australia-future-submarine-response-christopher-pyne
• Ricardian Ambivalence on are-cuts-back-on-the-table

Northern  America

• Matt Yglesias on puerto-rico-trump
• Josh Barro on trump-gop-tax-plan-political-disaster Thanks Brad
• Tim Duy on fed-poised-to-downplay-weak-data , hurricanes-help-boost-data-while-powell-reportedly-rises-to-the-top-of-the-pack Thanks Mark
• The Conversable economist on chronic-conditions-and-health-care-costs , foreign-direct-investment-in-us-size-and-effects
• Noah Smith on debt-keeps-rising-and-nothing-bad-happens
• Jared Bernstein on real-gdps-still-growing-at-2-on-trend Thanks Mark 
• Kruggers on shifts-get-real-understanding-the-gops-policy-quagmire
• Growth economics on Taxing-GDP Thanks Mark
• Progrowth Liberal on trumps-inadequate-response-to-hurricane-maria
• Jared Bernstein on once-again-rather-than-write-a-decent-plan-the-administration-attacks-the-scorekeepers-and-this-time-their-attack-is-particularly-hypocritical Thanks Mark
• Laura Tysson and Lenny Mendonca on four-steps-to-strengthen-obamacare Thanks Mark
• Narayana Kocherlakota on who-trump-will-choose-to-lead-the-fed Thanks Mark
• Mark Thoma gives us Kruggers on will-trump-trumpify-the-fed
• Brad De Long on early-monday-john-cochrane-arithmetic-is-for-losers-resmackdown
• Menzie Chinn on two-pictures-from-the-september-employment-situation

Europe

• Kevin O'Rourke on europe-ireland-and-taxes
• stumbling and mumbling on the-lesson-of-the-70s , hammonds-weak-defence-of-markets
• Mainly Macro on the-obr-productivity-and-policy-failures

Asia

• Barkley Rosser on the-kurdish-independence-vote
• Rodger Shanahan on syria-five-stages-grief-part-1
• Robert E Kelly on five-lessons-weirdest-north-korea-crisis-yet
• Michael Hamel-Green on beyond-sanctions-a-diplomatic-path-to-peace-on-the-korean-peninsula
• Roger Myerson on game_theory_and_korea Thanks Mark 
• Richard Holden on vital-signs-the-data-is-mixed-but-worrying-signs-from-mortgagees
• Samantha Hepburn on the-governments-new-gas-deal-will-ease-the-squeeze-but-dodges-the-price-issue

Wonk

• Roger Farmer on keynesian-economics-without-the-phillips-curve
• Pseudoerasmus on labour repression and the Indo-Japanese divergance
• Promarket on mergers-bad-innovation Thanks Mark
• Economic Principals on Finding is easy writing is hard Thanks Mark
• Regulatory Review on usefulness-dangers-machine-learning Thanks Mark
• Mainly Macro on why-is-mmt-so-popular
• Long and Variable on do-monetary-policy-committees-present-an-insuperable-barrier-to-odyssian-forward-guidance , agreeing-a-central-bank-communication-strategy, larry-summers-on-the-passing-need-for-central-bank-independence
• Nick Rowe on the-devil-you-know-vs-the-market-for-lemons
• The Conversable economist on some-economics-of-immigration , the-gherkin-story-for-explaining-exchange-rate-risk
• Larry Summers on central-bank-independence Thanks Mark
• Stephen Grenville on global-macroeconomic-puzzles
• John Edwards on global-growth-choppy-forecasts-smooth-sailing
• Microeconomic insights on bargaining-asymmetric-information-empirical-study-plea-negotiations Thanks Mark
• Menzie Chinn on econofact-are-global-imbalances-a-source-of-concern
• Kruggers on the-transfer-problem-and-tax-incidence-insanely-wonkish
• Bank Underground on the-decline-of-solvency-contagion-risk Thanks Mark

General

• Tim Harford on when-doing-nothing-is-the-best-option
• Understanding Society on refinements-of-social-functionalism Thanks Mark
• Frederic Lemieux on six-things-to-know-about-mass-shootings-in-america
• Thomas the Think Engine on why-does-elon-musk-make-me-so-cross
• Lorenzo on black-lives-matter-and-the-destruction-of-social-capital
• Flowing Data on how-fake-data-goes-viral
• Damien Kingsbury on passion-and-pain-why-secessionist-movements-rarely-succeed
• Lochlan Morrisey on alternative-facts-do-exist-beliefs-lies-and-politics
• Chris Turney on revenge-served-cold-was-scott-of-the-antarctic-sabotaged-by-his-angry-deputy

Climate

• and Then Theres Physics on a-bit-more-about-committed-warming , a-harde-response
• Moyhu on september-ncepncar-global-anomaly-down-0.02-in-August
• Ed Hawkins on what-do-future-eruptions-mean-for-climate-projections , is-the-1-5c-target-still-reachable
• Skeptical Science on ClimateImpactsPossibleMtAgung
• Real Climate on 1-5oc-geophysically-impossible-or-not
• Stochastic Trend on more-on-millar et al

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• fish-mri-international-relations-studies
• next-causal-inference-machine-learning-intelligent-decision-making
• 5-minutes-really
• response-comments-abandon-statistical-significance
• statistical-methods-expiration-date-talk-university-texas-friday
• 2-quick-calls
• alan-sokals-comments-abandon-statistical-significance
• one-discussion-redefining-abandoning-statistical-significance
• worry-rigged-priors
• missing-will-paper-likely-lead-researchers-think
• biorxiv-cant-central-service
• Miles Kimball on lets-set-half-a-percent-as-the-standard-for-statistical-significance Thanks Brad
• Jodie Beggs on causal-friday-in-which-im-supposed-to-believe-that-kneeling-makes-one-worse-at-sport-ball Thanks Mark
• Rick Wicklin on create-and-interpret-a-weighted-histogram
• Eran Raviv on  r-tips-tricks-boxplots
• nicebread on meta-showdown-1

Genial Dave Giles (econometrics)

• how-good-is-that-random-number-generator
• recommended-reading-for-october

Dianne Coyle (quirky + book reviews)

• theyre-watching-you
• competitive-brains-and-centrally-planned-computers

Vox Wonk

• limits-digitisation
• ceo-s-cultural-heritage-affects-bank-performance-under-competition
• credit-growth-and-global-crisis-new-narrative
• demographic-drivers-americas-will-reduce-illegal-immigration-us
• understanding-strategic-thinking-children-and-adolescents
• new-survey-evidence-impact-brexit-uk-firms
• declining-japanese-long-term-interest-rates-and-implications-monetary-policy
• us-immigration-reform-and-mexican-migration-dynamics
• overcoming-eurozone-wage-inertia
• firearm-background-checks-and-suicide
• guns-and-votes