Around the Traps 28/11/25

 It is time again for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Milad Haghani et al on aircraft-noise-from-new-runways-will-hit-thousands-more-homes-australia-needs-fairer-solutions
• croaking cassandra on treasury-on-tax , trade-nz-vs-australia , scattered-mps-points
• Stephen Bartos and John Hawkins on inflation-jumps-in-october-adding-to-pressure-on-government-to-make-budget-savings
• Greg Jericho on the-latest-inflation-figures-offer-no-joy-except-to-the-gas-producers-whose-windfall-profits-remain-largely-untouched
• Zac Gross on apras-first-order Thanks Stephen Kirchner
• Justine Bell-James on long-sought-environmental-law-reform-is-finally-here-but-will-the-compromise-deal-actually-protect-nature
• Sarah Cameron and Ian McAlister on better-policies-better-leader-new-study-reveals-why-labor-won-the-2025-federal-election

OZ climate

• capacity-investment-scheme-will-be-a-failure-if-projects-arent-built-and-theres-a-problem-with-wind
• australias-most-powerful-battery-still-seeking-answers-for-transformer-failure-to-be-offline-for-maintenance
  
• big-solar-grabs-record-30-6-pct-share-of-australias-main-grid-before-being-shunted-aside-by-rooftop-pv
  
• australia-needs-a-new-wind-farm-every-month-to-meet-2030-target-cefc-boss-says
  
• wind-project-developers-propose-accelerated-payments-to-near-neighbours-but-theres-a-catch
  
• big-batteries-hit-world-leading-40-pct-share-of-evening-demand-in-stunning-new-record-for-south-australia
  
• a-completely-new-world-major-new-big-battery-deal-signals-a-new-energy-market-order
  
• rooftop-pv-is-eating-the-energy-industrys-lunch-now-big-solar-wants-to-hoe-into-coal-generators-dinner
  
• australia-doesnt-have-to-choose-between-energy-affordability-and-emission-reductions
  
• we-need-a-reality-check-on-the-future-of-fossil-gas-with-households-already-racing-for-the-exit
  
• off-grid-gold-miner-achieves-record-renewables-with-101-consecutive-hours-with-engines-off
  
• new-worlds-largest-sand-battery-to-double-the-size-of-current-record-holder
  
• Zoe Richards on we-knew-ningaloos-coral-bleaching-was-severe-but-what-we-found-6-months-later-was-still-a-shock

Northern America

• Astead Herndon and Cameron Peters on zohran-mamdani-donald-trump-oval-office-meeting-nyc-queens
• Jill Fillipovic on marjorie-taylor-greene-trump-epstein-maga-women-feminism
• John Quiggin on musks-last-grift
• Kruggers on vibecessions-part-ii , the-trump-trade-is-unraveling , doge-was-a-harbinger-of-trumps-assault-on-decency-and-privacy , warning-the-fed-cant-rescue-ai
• Bruce Wolpe on trumps-attacks-are-worsening-why-is-he-becoming-even-more-vengeful
• the conversable economist on are-the-entry-level-jobs-drying-up-for-young-adults , us-poverty-and-policy , origins-of-thanksgiving
• Cameron Peters on comey-james-cases-lindsey-halligan-us-attorney-kelly-investigation
• Mark Stern on comey-lindsey-halligan-tish-james-fake-prosecutor
• Dahlia Lithwick on doj-epstein-maxwell-interview-emails-fail-todd-blanche
• Daniel Flitton on america-in-the-age-of-envoy
• Joshua Keating on terrorism-maduro-venezuela-antifa
• Fred Kaplan on trump-28-point-plan-ukraine-russia-steve-witkoff-leak
• Missy Ryan et al on mark-kelly-military-justice-trump-hegseth
• Mick Ryan on kabul-kyiv-trump-s-pattern-clear-negotiate-enemies-sideline-allies
• noahpinion on bad-education-is-a-terrible-way-to-fight-inequality
• Russell Berman on indiana-redistricting-republican-trump
• Anette Gordon-Reed on jefferson-divided

Europe

• Georgi Engelbrecht on great-aspirations-examining-russia-s-role-southeast-asia
• Simon Goodman and Rahul Sambaraju on is-racism-becoming-more-acceptable-in-the-uk
• Elona Zhona on eu-processes-move-years-kosovo-also-needs-partners-who-move-months
• Mathew Sussex on how-the-trump-administration-tried-to-sell-ukraine-a-diplomatic-debacle
• Joshua Keating on ukraine-peace-deal-putin-russia
• Anna Hansen on how-russia-tried-manipulate-moldova-s-election-what-it-reveals
• Chris Dillow on the-fiscal-challenge
• Fred Kaplan on trump-ukraine-28-point-peace-plan-russia-rubio
• James Skinner and Jamie Hill on how-englands-premier-league-is-trying-to-stop-footballs-financial-arms-race-without-a-salary-cap
• Simon Shuster on ukraine-zelensky-russia-trump-peace-land-red-line
• Joshua Yaffa on what-are-putins-ultimate-demands-for-peace-in-ukraine

Asia

• Ausma Bernot on wechat-is-now-a-frontline-policing-tool-in-china-heres-what-my-research-found
• Lisa Singh on quiet-strength-regional-friends-pitch-issues-based-coalitions
• Shanthie D'Souza on modi-courts-putin-eye-trump-s-disapproval
• Apoorba Banerjee on southeast-asian-manufacturing-no-longer-immune-geopolitics
• Jane Hardy on what-i-learned-about-north-korea-s-nuclear-paranoia-pyongyang
• Sari Bashi on gaza-the-threat-of-partition

Wonk

• Ashley Crawley on are we not catholics too Thanks Nick
• Mark Dalton on regulations-compliance-cost-barriers-to-entry Thanks Nick
• Ari Adut on democracy-as-theatre Thanks Nick
• institutional economics on tariff-shocks-are-aggregate-demand-shock
• Awni Etaywe on violent-extremists-wield-words-as-weapons-new-study-reveals-6-tactics-they-use
• Tim Harford on taking-a-swipe-at-dating-apps
• RN Prasher on cheap-weapons-reshape-character-war
• Robert Walker and Georgia Hammersly on world-proves-thirstier-ever-energy
• Milad Haghani et al on the-hong-kong-high-rise-fire-shows-how-difficult-it-is-to-evacuate-in-an-emergency
• Katherine Teh on critical-minerals-why-fast-tracking-undermines-democratic-legitimacy
• Jed Rackoff on its-a-racket-cryptocurrency

General

• Jennifer Power on does-masturbating-really-help-menopause-symptoms-new-research-says-yes
• Tyler Cowen on what-is-opera
• Beth Driscoll on should-we-get-over-print-books-in-the-digital-age-or-are-they-more-precious-than-ever
• Luke Johnson on 100-years-on-t-s-eliots-the-hollow-men-is-a-poem-for-our-populist-moment

Climate

• Jacqueline Peel on this-years-climate-talks-saw-real-progress-just-not-on-fossil-fuels
• skeptical science on fact-brief-sun-2 , new_research
• essays concerning on climate-shaming-3-0
• renew ecconomy on brazils-cop-of-truth-fails-on-fossil-fuels-and-science-now-its-bowens-turn-to-take-centre-stage
• David Appell on berkeley-earths-october-and-crimes-against-humanity
• Shanai Sanai and Ambarish Karmalkar on sea-level-doesnt-rise-at-the-same-rate-everywhere-we-mapped-where-antarcticas-ice-melt-would-have-the-biggest-impact

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• who-wants-no-kid-vax-law
  
•  the-limits-of-ethical-ai
• the-signal-to-noise-ratio-in-statistics
  
• who-has-the-lowest-erdos-bacon-epstein-number
  
• some-thoughts-on-empirical-distributions-of-z-scores
  
• problems-with-the-so-called-gender-equality-paradox
  
• survey-statistics-quantity-vs-quality
  
• the-purpose-of-science-vs-the-purpose-of-scientists
  
• kroger-recall-update-full-list-of-product-warnings-across-18-states
  
• effective-sample-size
  
•  larry-summers-ken-starr-jeffrey-epstein-and-everyone-else
• freakometrics on insurers AI and systematic risk
• Kaiser Fung on light-entertainment-pi-orities

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• Maya Krisnan on what-we-call-progress Thanks Nick
• Tyler Cowen on best-non-fiction-books-of-2025 , the-age-of-disclosure
• Dennis Muller on airbrushing-and-exhortations-ita-buttrose-reflects-on-her-life-in-media-well-some-of-it
• Menzie Chinn on clifford-winston-market-corrections-not-government-interventions

Vox Wonk

• when-loss-strikes-twice-health-shocks-and-household-financial-distress 
  
• labour-market-institutions-ai-era-need-verified-employment-records
  
• financial-fragmentation-vulnerability-euro-area-bond-markets
  
• then-and-now-look-back-and-ahead-us-federal-budget
  
• unintended-consequences-export-restrictions
  
• how-financial-authorities-best-respond-ai-challenges
  
• granular-origins-inflation
  
• economic-value-nations-create-others-relative-domestic-gains
  

A Bad CPI

The CPI was released yesterday. It is the first fair dinkum monthly CPI.

It was bad. It rose stronger than expected. Thus the RBA will stay put on rates as they should.

HERE is some good commentary

HOWEVER it is a new series. It will take time to be broken in. The RBA has already said it will take more notice of the quarterly CPI.

I have to say both the last quarterly number and this number is at odds with business surveys which say inflation is okay.

This simply means you wait until you are sure where is inflation is and heading.

renewable energy

 Renew energy has some interesting articles.

• big-solar-grabs-record-30-6-pct-share-of-australias-main-grid-before-being-shunted-aside-by-rooftop-pv     Thus rooftop solar is even taking market share from big solar let alone coalstations! On the positive side more batteries get full
  
• australia-needs-a-new-wind-farm-every-month-to-meet-2030-target-cefc-boss-says   We need to get cracking od building new windfarms ( and solar farms.)
  
• australias-most-powerful-battery-still-seeking-answers-for-transformer-failure-to-be-offline-for-maintenance  We still do not know what occurred
  
• four-hour-big-battery-to-be-built-next-to-australias-biggest-wind-farm This makes obvious sense
  
• new-transmission-towers-are-crucial-for-renewables-but-contentious-heres-where-they-should-go wow I didn't know about this
  
• what-will-night-time-electricity-generation-look-like-in-2030  so interesting
  

All in all positive but work needs to be ddone

Is Trump a russian agent

 The US's 28 point peace plan is out and it looksl ike it was written by Russia.

See:

• Joshua Keating
• Fred Kaplan and again
• Mathew Sussex

Perhaps Witkoff has been a russian agent all along.

Why does a country that was invaded have to be limited in their defence force? Why do they have to give away territory they hold. Unbelievable

It is no wonder this garbage came from a property developer with NO foreign affairs experience who has no State department to assist him ( his choice).

Pardon the french but the world needs to come together and tell Trump to get stuffed!!!@

the 1st test was a disgrace

 I was soo looking forward to the 1st test and then I was let down.

On the first day we saw pathetic batting. The bowling was moderate to very good. The poms leant nothing from their woeful display in the first innings. It was no surprise the pommy bowlers could not bowl well again given they had little rest for both their physical and emotional wellbeing.

I have some coaching tips

When facing a left arm bowler who is not swinging the ball then do not drive. Wait for a short ball outside the offstump and then cut it. If it is on legstump then either play off the hip or glance it depending on the length.

If a right hand bowler is bowling 4th or 5th stump either leave the ball alone or take a guard on off stump. Even then remember to drive a ball your foot has to be at the ball and your head over it.

When bowling to a batsman who is suspect to a fast bouncer like Head is use the bouncer sparsely. To get a batsman out you have to get them wondering what ball is coming next.

Right. The Poms are gone. They wil lnot come back after that. They had the match on a platter and lost it badly by not learning.

The other thing is their fast bowlers do not back up. Archer is good for the first match but not after that as the India test series showed. The other bowlers are the same.

Their batsmen should thrive here. in the first innings they showed how to play Boland and then forgot all about it. It reminded me of Pope in India.

I am soooo dissapointed.

Around the Traps 21/11/25

 It is time for Around the Traps again.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Brian Oliver on asbestos-has-been-found-in-childrens-coloured-sand-whats-the-risk-to-kids
• Peter Breadon and Elizabeth Baldwin on hospitals-are-under-pressure-these-changes-could-save-1-2-billion-a-year-and-fund-160-000-extra-hospital-visits
• Aude Bernard et al on yes-migration-to-australia-is-up-but-new-figures-show-most-migrants-do-not-become-citizens
• Jenny Buchan on franchise-businesses-have-long-been-plagued-by-scandals-dominos-is-just-the-latest
• John Hawkins on years-in-the-making-the-first-complete-monthly-inflation-report-is-almost-here
• Roger Dargaville on which-policies-would-face-the-chopping-block-under-the-coalitions-retreat-from-net-zero
• croaking cassandra on an-mpc-speaking , the-new-governor-and-those-responsible-for-her
• Greg Jericho on wages-are-now-barely-growing-faster-than-inflation
• Janine Dixon on real-wages-have-grown-just-over-the-past-year-but-theyre-still-down-near-2011-levels

OZ climate

• Mark the Graph on labors-announcables-vs-architecture , electoral-calculus-coalitions-net-zero
• Adam Morton on coalition-net-zero-emissions-claims-factcheck-electricity-price-power-bill-cost
• Patrick Commins on are-australians-really-paying-more-for-electricity-than-other-countries
• Alison Reeve on yes-your-energy-bills-have-gone-up-turning-net-zero-into-a-culture-war-will-send-them-higher
• Lisa Cox on artificial-intelligence-data-centre-australia-solar-farm-possibly-unparalleled
• a-culture-of-fear-bushfire-survivor-tells-senate-inquiry-how-climate-misinformation-fuels-trauma-and-silences-voices
  
• australias-most-renewable-grid-sets-spectacular-new-wind-record-as-it-awaits-word-on-cop-hosting-bid
  
• local-networks-say-they-can-save-billions-slash-gas-use-and-create-breathing-room-in-dash-to-replace-coal
  
• over-my-dead-body-planning-minister-rejects-any-chance-of-approval-for-cancelled-wind-project
  
• a-perfect-failure-transmission-tower-collapses-in-the-name-of-stronger-renewable-grids
  
• every-component-of-my-life-was-attacked-how-wind-farm-misinformation-tore-community-apart
  
• are-renewable-zones-solving-solar-and-wind-grid-connection-problems-or-making-them-worse
  
• big-battery-told-not-to-charge-as-rooftop-solar-repeatedly-pushes-grid-demand-below-zero
  
• four-hour-big-battery-to-be-built-next-to-australias-biggest-wind-farm
  
• aemo-wants-five-years-warning-on-coal-plant-closures-to-fix-fundamental-mismatch-in-pace-of-energy-transition
  

Northern America

• institutional economics on gap-filling-us-inflation-and-employment
• Felix Martin on us-stablecoin-power-play-could-epically-backfire Thanks Nick
• Kruggers on vibecessions-part-i , the-plutocrats-who-cried-commie , reminder-crypto-is-a-trump-trade , the-vibecession-deepens 
• Tyler Cowen on why-are-us-clinical-trials-so-expensive , john-cochrane-understands-the-elasticity-of-supply
• Christian Paz on republican-latino-immigration-economy-support-trump-politics-deportation
• Alex Tabarrok on illegal-immigrants-didnt-break-the-housing-market-bad-policy-did
• Jordan Rubin on james-comey-grand-jury-disclosure-judge-trump
• Joshua Keating on gaza-hamas-fighters-tunnels-underground-ceasefire
• Andrew Prokop on jeffrey-epstein-files-scandal-explained-trump-giuffre
• noahpinion on housing-is-at-the-heart-of-americas-problem , the-economics-theory-that-could-have-saved-trump
• the conversable economist on us-tariff-revenues-in-perspective , do-exclusionary-preferences-explain-why-some-americans-happy-about-paying-for-tariffs
• Brad De long on just-what-do-trumps-trade-deals-consist-of? nothing , more-lies-about-trade-tariffs-from-the-chaos-monkeys
• Jeet Heer on trump-marjorie-taylor-greene-epstein
• Andrew Warren on lindsey-halligan-james-comey-prosecution-grand-jury
• Mark Stern on texas-gerrymander-judge-soros-trump-crazy

Europe

• Graham Quillette on a-journalism-of-deception-bbc-deborah-turness-tim-davie Thanks Nick
• Nicholas Bloom  et al on economic-impact-brexit Thanks Nick
• noahpinion on eurocope
• the conversable economist on the-eu-and-the-hard-lessons-of-neglecting-growth
• Tyler Cowen on was-brexit-worse-than-we-had-thought
• Alexander Korolev on by-delaying-a-decision-on-using-russias-frozen-assets-for-ukraine-europe-is-quietly-hedging-its-bets
• Rob Manwaring and Emily Foley on is-the-uk-headed-for-a-new-prime-minister
• Stefan Wolf and Tetyana Malyarenko on ukraine-and-europes-weakness-exposed-as-us-and-russia-again-negotiate-behind-kyivs-back
• Ferdinand Mount on flipping-britains-postwar-script-blue-jerusalem-kit-kowol
• Chris Bertram on core-protection
• Joshua Keating on trump-ukraine-peace-plan-zelenskyy
• Fred Kaplan on trump-28-point-ukraine-peace-plan-russia-putin

Asia

• noahpinion on chinas-people-are-on-a-treadmill
• Abhijnan Rej on terrorism-returns-delhi-troubling-new-profile
• Karryl Trajano on can-asean-secure-quantum-future
• Shahzad Uddin on bangladesh-signals-that-no-leader-is-above-the-law-by-sentencing-sheikh-hasina-to-death

Wonk

• Ian Montgomery on forget-davos-try-kilkenny Thanks Nick
• Nathan Pinkowski on postliberalisms-reluctant-godfather Thanks Nick
• cracks in post-modernity on the-rights-co-opting-of-post-liberalism Thanks Nick
• Tim Harford on the-silver-bullet-fallacy
• Daniel Byman on left-wing-terrorism-returning
• the conversable economist on dishwashers-and-the-24-7-time-constraint
• Shanie D'Souza on reality-check-brics-lofty-dedollarisation-agenda
• Henry Yep on delay-weapon-fighting-winning-clock
• noahpinion on the-future-of-war-is-the-future-of-society

General

• Danielle Le Lagadec and Catherine Hungerford on 5-health-benefits-of-line-dancing-according-to-science

Climate

• David Appell on jma-october25-was-3rd-warmest-oct
• Asma Aziz on this-widely-used-chart-makes-the-clean-energy-switch-seem-much-harder-than-it-actually-is
• ocean acidification on pathways-to-a-safer-planet
• skeptical science on ClimateAdam-why-the-climate-crisis-is-a-health-crisis , new_research
• Christian Downie on brazil-is-trying-to-stop-fossil-fuel-interests-derailing-cop30-with-one-simple-measure
• Andrew King and Aditya Sengupta on what-do-we-know-about-climate-change-how-do-we-know-it-and-where-are-we-headed
• Ryan Neelam on climate-change-compromise-progress-heart-amazon
• ocean acidification on carbon-rich-waters-are-becoming-even-more-acidic-as-atmospheric-co2-levels-rise

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• the-density-of-fraud
  
• sociology-of-science-what-does-it-take-for-erroneous-or-fraudulent-claims-to-take-hold
  
• a-borgesian-blog-idea-and-nothing-to-do-with-forking-paths
  
• the-aristocrats
  
• under-what-sort-of-systematic-reporting-errors-will-science-be-self-correcting-or-not-and-do-gardening-programs-reduce-obesity
  
• survey-statistics-sampling-the-sample
  
• this-guys-mad-about-fake-research-and-he-should-be-research-incompetence-research-fraud-and-the-promotion-of-fraudulent-or-incompetent-work-these-are-not-victimless-crimes
  
• three-meta-principles-of-statistics-the-information-principle-the-methodological-attribution-problem-and-different-applications-demand-different-philosophies
  
• what-do-you-think-is-the-ideal-number-of-children-for-a-family-to-have-two-different-statistical-measurement-challenges-arise-from-this-one-question-on-the-general-social-survey
  
• freakometric on the three pillars of fairness in pricing , decomposing direct and indirect biases in linear models under demographic parity constraint, insuring to achieve emancipation
• Kaiser Fung on avinashs-scoring-rubric-for-data-visualization , more-than-a-penny

Dianne Coyle (quirky + book reviews)

• reshuffle-or-how-productivity-happens
  
• Tyler Cowen on the-science-of-second-chances , best-fiction-of-2025
• Ingrid Robeyns on online-discussion-on-lisa-herzogs-the-democratic-marketplace
• Amy Sorkin on if-the-legal-campaigns-against-donald-trump-had-ended-differently

Vox Wonk

• european-unions-new-fiscal-rules-fine-line-between-brilliant-masterpiece-and-another
  
•  monetary-policy-transmission-through-cross-selling-banks 
• rewiring-trade-warming-world-how-cop30-can-turn-climate-goals-trade-rules 
  
• elvis-ghost-jordans-airness-and-new-economics-publicity-rights
  
• assessing-commissions-multiannual-financial-framework-proposal-first-order-principles 
  
• credit-and-product-innovation-emerging-markets-evidence-india
  
• public-money-private-innovation-how-government-funding-built-and-sustains-americas
  
• ai-financial-sector-supervision-new-evidence-emerging-market-and-developing-economies
  
• unbearable-lightness-sovereign-greenium
  
• beyond-military-sales-market-premium-dual-use-research-and-development
  
• european-defence-governance-and-financing 
  
• conflict-dismissals-evidence-separations-mutual-agreement-france
  
• continued-growth-despite-challenging-environment-commissions-autumn-2025-forecast 
  
• innovation-digital-economy-architecture-ensuring-regulatory-simplification-drives 
  
• tariff-avoidance-and-import-measurement-lessons-first-us-china-trade-war 
  
• pension-design-and-general-public-finances-beyond-baseline-actuarial-neutrality
  

The LNP's energy policy

 Okay we do not know but we can take an educated guess.

nuclear power

No Public ownership but bans are lifted. good so far but given nuclear power is much more expensive than coal and takes twice as long to build this becomes an academic argument.  Also very important baseload power in incompatible with rooftop solar.

coal powered power

 The government would provide support in financing thus  lowering borrowing costs. They would 'sweat' out exing assets.There is no intertest from the public sector in building coal fired power stations. They take 8 years to build , even new ones break s down on hot days ( ironic eh), they take too lomn ng to start and shut down, they need to be going 24 hours a day, they only make money at night ( solar duck curve) and are incompatible with rooftop solar.  I should also add units breaking down is what AEMO worries about every summer re blackouts.

Sweating out existing assets is mad. This is one of the reasons energy costs are so high. This would make it worse. Lowering borrowing costs is academic when no-one wants to build any plants.

gas

They want to flood the country with gas to ensure prices fall. Unless you legislate this it won't happen and what happens when this hits overseas contracts.compaines are put in an invidious position.

renewables

This sector will be put on hold

This is all mad and like under Dutton I very doubt this would ever be applied but it adds to uncertainty.