Around the Traps 20/12/24

 It is time again for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Ross Gittins on trade-deficits-dont-have-to-be-wicked-unless-you-believe-in-trump , oligopolists-gouge-power-and-gas-prices ,dont-worry-youll-have-enough-in-retirement-except for one thing
• John Quiggin on rba-policy-is-putting-all-our-futures-at-risk
• Mark the Ballot on polls-and-betting-market-update
• Dennis Muller on hugh-marks-is-the-new-managing-director-of-the-abc-is-he-the-right-person-for-the-job
• Greg Jericho on myefo-mid-year-budget-deficit-predicted-albanese-labor-government
• John Hawkins on if-treasury-forecasts-are-right-it-could-be-a-decade-before-australia-is-back-in-black

OZ Climate

• Nikki Hutley on the-coalitions-nuclear-costings-and-their-rubbery-assumptions-take-us-back-to-being-a-climate-pariah
• Thomas Longden on the-coalition-reveals-the-cost-of-its-nuclear-power-plan-but-the-devil-is-in-the-missing-detail
• John Woinarski and Jess Marsh on around-9-000-species-have-already-gone-extinct-in-australia-and-well-likely-lose-another-this-week-new-study
• John Quiggin on more-coal-and-gas-less-renewables-what-a-nuclear-power-plan-for-australia-would-really-mean
• Gabrielle Kuiper on how-rapid-implementation-flexible-exports-could-maximise-rooftop-solar , flexible-exports-smart-move-solar
• Amandine Dennis-Ryan on prioritising-methane-abatement-makes-economic-sense
• Shoklar Poddar and Merlinde Kay on heatwaves-and-bushfires-can-be-a-dangerous-mix-for-the-electricity-grid-heres-how-to-shore-up-your-supplies-this-summer
• biggest-losers-from-coalitions-nuclear-plan-will-be-australias-4-million-solar-households-industry-says
  
• you-cant-charge-your-battery-and-your-car-at-same-timedutton-does-not-have-a-clue-about-energy
  
• solar-switch-off-duttons-nuclear-plan-is-a-declaration-of-war-against-household-energy-systems
  
• audit-shows-renewables-driving-down-wholesale-power-prices-in-state-where-targets-to-be-scrapped
  
• wind-and-solar-output-records-tumble-as-grid-demand-hits-new-highs-in-midst-of-heatwave
  
• solar-switch-off-duttons-nuclear-plan-is-a-declaration-of-war-against-household-energy-systems
  
• flexible-exports-vital-to-the-value-of-rooftop-pv-and-could-help-avoid-the-big-solar-button
  
• eye-glasses-for-the-grid-new-rules-pave-way-for-consumer-energy-to-compete-with-coal-and-gas
  
• solar-swing-state-from-nearly-too-much-grid-demand-to-warnings-of-not-enough-in-less-than-a-day
  
• precipitous-builder-of-australias-biggest-battery-sees-big-cost-falls-compares-grid-to-pearl-necklace
  

Northern America

• Kruggers on the-fraudulence-of-waste-fraud-and-abuse ,will-trump-be-called-on-his-inflation-lieThanks Brad
• William Barber and jonathan wilson-Hartgrove on north-carolina-republicans-veto-cooper-stein
• Yascha Mounk on there-is-no-surplus-elite-in-america Thanks Nick
• Menzie Chinn on trump-tariffs-are-going-to-make-our-country-rich ,maciver-institute-does-international-trade-be-very-afraid
• noahopinion on why-are-so-many-americans-acting-like-a-pack-of-ghouls , america-is-losing-the-physical-technologies-of-the-future
• Joel Eissenberg on will-doge-be-an-exercise-in-futility
• Nardine Alnemr et al on donald-trump-crypto-capital-planet
• Nicole Narea on trump-business-truth-social-crypto-liv-hotel-conflicts
• Jeet Heer on politics/trump-authentic-american-berserk
• Norman Eisen on abc-trump-defamation-settlement-what-it-means
• Tyler Cowen on thetriumph-of-politics
• Ellen Ioannes on trump-media-lawsuits-abc-slapp-des-moines-register
• Phillip's newsletter on trump-and-abandoning-ukraine thanks Brad
• Alexandre Dayant on what-trump-second-term-holds-global-development

Europe

• Barry Eichengreen on german-economic-crisis-could-break-institutional-logjam thanks Brad
• Menzie Chinn on freezing-russian-assets-if-not-now-when
• Catherine Wilson on romania-s-presidential-election-triggers-uncertainty-europe-ukraine-its-allies

Asia

• Institutional economics on markets-grade-the-ccps-economic-work
• Mark O'Connell on israels-revenge-an-interview-with-rashid-khalidi Thanks Brad
• Menzie Chinn on guest-contribution-the-diminishing-impact-of-exchange-rates-on-chinas-exports , how-competitive-is-china
• Izzah Ibrahim on diplomacy-southeast-asian-way
• Avyshay Artsy and Noel King on syria-assad-civil-war-refugees
• Kirsten Han on southeast-asia-s-death-penalty-laws-ultimate-political-game
• Scott Lucas on who-is-syrias-new-prime-minister-and-what-will-he-do
• Joshua Keating on china-taiwan-conflict
• Aiman Saikal on a-bitter-rivalry-is-emerging-in-the-middle-east-between-two-old-adversaries-over-the-future-of-syria
• Ved Shinde on indians-are-streets-ahead-their-government-foreign-policy
• Roger Shanahan on telling-israel-the-killing-must-stop-in-gaza-is-not-antisemitic
• Rintaro Nishimura on opposition-party-could-hold-deciding-vote-japan-s-national-security-policy
• Ben Mathis-Lilley on 2024-election-why-did-harris-lose-democrats

Wonk

• Homo Sum on liberalism-is-a-plural-noun Thanks Brad
• Robin Hanson on conquest-and-liberation-of-academia Thanks Nick
• Ruth Taylor on the-big-thing-people-miss-when-thinking-about-values Thanks Nick
• lost tempo on metacrisis-what-metacrisis Thanks Nick
• Tim Harford on what-can-we-learn-from-fraud-and-folly
• Mick Ryan on taiwan-ukraine-learning-right-lessons
• Mainly Macro on after-neoliberalism-dynamics-of-transformation
• Sarah Ryding et al on shrinking-wings-bigger-beaks-birds-are-reshaping-themselves-in-a-warming-world
• Mark Pierce on what-makes-remarkable-political-oration
• noahopinion on macroeconomics-the-predator-of-foolish-regimes

General

• Brian Thornton on santa-claus-was-inspired-by-a-real-figure-who-fought-against-miscarriages-of-justice
• Will Jeffrey on fantasia-2000-celebrating-25-years-of-a-concertless-film-in-search-of-a-concert
• Laura Driessen on when-you-wish-upon-a-star-is-it-already-dead-an-astronomer-crunches-the-numbers
• Luke Barnes on astronomers-world-first-discovery-twin-stars-trapped-in-galactic-black-hole-orbit
• Tyler Cowen on is-indian-food-the-worlds-best

Climate

• David Appell on atmospheric-methane-level-accelerating , earths-albedo-is-decreasing-due-to-fewer-low-clouds
• renew economy on is-big-tech-going-all-in-on-nuclear-google-and-microsoft-have-pledged-45-billion-spend-on-renewables
• Andrew Freedman on climate-change-records-surprise-scientists
• skeptical science on how-much-worry-AMOC-collapse
• open mind on truth-about-sea-level-along-the-eastern-u-s-a

Andrew Gelman (mainly stats)

• the-most-interesting-part-of-the-story-is-that-the-publisher-went-through-all-these-steps-of-reviewing-and-revising-if-they-just-want-to-make-money-by-publishing-crap-why-bother-engaging-outside-re
  
• the-theory-and-practice-of-oligarchical-collectivism
  
• the-exceptions-nancy-hopkins-mit-and-the-fight-for-women-in-science
  
• iterative-imputation
  
• applications-of-bayesian-variational-inference
  
• are-they-gonna-make-him-pay-back-the-19-million
  
• how-did-the-press-do-on-that-black-spatula-story
  

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• Tyler Cowen on the-nvidia-way
• Jo Case on what-will-you-be-reading-this-summer-we-asked-6-avid-readers

vox wonk

• investigation-economic-slowdown-euro-area
  
• climate-change-causes-conflict-how-policy-can-respond
  
• why-population-ageing-demands-looking-beyond-chronological-age
  
• misperceptions-and-demand-democracy-under-authoritarianism
  
• high-moments-superstar-exporters
  
• social-mobility-and-inequality-new-evidence-imperial-china
  
• chinas-military-rise-comparative-military-spending-china-and-us
  
• climate-change-central-banks-and-monetary-policy-trade-offs
  
• chinese-plastic-waste-import-ban-lessons-eu-policy
  
• political-distrust-and-populist-alt-view-trap
  
• chinese-infrastructure-lending-and-africas-global-value-chain-participation
  

MYEFO

 It was released yesterday.

Here are two views

1. myefo-mid-year-budget-deficit-predicted-albanese-labor-government
   
2. if-treasury-forecasts-are-right-it-could-be-a-decade-before-australia-is-back-in-black
   

My only comment is neither party has responded to the permanent new high of government spending. We need more tax.although the Opposition talks a big game they never say what spending they would cut. Just remember in government they cut diddly squat.

The only way to get the budget back into balance is to do something with tax!

Rooftop Solar

 HERE  and HERE are two recent articles concerning rooftop solar.

The first shows up the incompatibility of rooftop solar with baseload power. IMHO it will kill Dutton's 'plan'.

The second examines why rooftop solar is not being used as much as it should afterall it is the cheapest power going around!

Enjoy

Late HERE

Ross Gittins on high electricity charges

 Ross Gittins has an interesting column on electricity pricing.

Its more price gouging than the Ukraine/Russian war

The Coalition's nuclear program

 I won't say much except to say the ALP is not promising public monies and the coalition is yet no-one is talking about this. Also rooftop solar would take a hit. There would be a dutton tax on rooftop solar because it is incompatible with base load power but not dispatchable power.

• Nikki Hutley
• Sophie Vorrath
• David Leitch
• Johanna Bowyer
• Peter Hannan
• Adam Morton 
• Adam Morton and Graham Readfearn
• Giles Parkinson   again
• Simon Holmes a' Court

I am wondering whether this is serious policy. This maybe cynical but I think a reason would be found why this could not go ahead. It would not be a reliance on gas ( the most costly after nuclear) before any nuclear stations came on board nor would it be units breaking even more regularly than they do now because all coal fired power statins are well past their use by date. It would be a reason that is blamed on the present government.

Around the Traps 13/12/24

 It is time again for Around the Traps

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Greg Barton on rates-of-youth-radicalisation-are-climbing-in-australia-and-abroad-heres-what-to-look-out-for
• Ross Gittins on the-australian-economy-is-behaving-strangely
• Kevin Bonham on media-fails-again-over-mrp-reporting
• Nichola Tyler and Troy McEwan on up-to-40-of-bushfires-in-parts-of-australia-are-deliberately-lit-but-were-not-doing-enough-to-prevent-them
• Fleur Johns on australia-out-lunch-disaster-diplomacy
• Greg Barton on the-melbourne-synagogue-fire-is-being-treated-as-a-terror-attack-heres-why-that-matters
• Robin Smit on australians-cars-are-typically-larger-heavier-and-less-efficient-than-in-europe-heres-why
• Brendan Coates and Joey Moloney on how-much-do-you-need-to-retire-its-probably-a-lot-less-than-you-think
• Henry Storey on china-s-ev-manufacturing-australia-s-connected-vehicles-conundrum
• Greg Jericho on politicians-love-talking-about-middle-australia-but-beware-of-this-misleading-metric
• Peter Hurley et al on labor-guarantees-3-days-of-childcare-and-160-new-centres-what-does-this-mean-for-families
• Rob Nicholls on big-tech-firms-like-meta-forced-to-pay-for-news-under-albanese-governments-news-bargaining-incentive-charge
• Rick Sarre and Ben Livings on moira-deemings-defamation-win-shows-nobody-can-play-fast-and-loose-with-language-not-even-politicians
• Annmaree O'Keefe on us-tariffs-are-nothing-new-history-should-be-our-guide

OZ Climate

• queensland-looks-to-gas-and-coal-hedges-bets-on-nuclear-as-new-cost-blowout-emerges-for-pumped-hydro
  
• gencost-falling-costs-of-solar-and-batteries-confirm-integrated-renewables-are-cheapest-option
  
• csiro-patiently-and-methodically-slaps-down-peter-duttons-nuclear-nonsense
  
• south-australia-has-the-most-wind-and-solar-and-no-baseload-so-why-is-it-the-only-state-not-fretting-about-a-vulnerable-grid
  
• nsw-gets-lion-share-as-19-solar-wind-and-hybrid-projects-win-australias-biggest-renewable-tender
  
• plunging-cost-of-big-batteries-latest-gigawatt-scale-project-may-set-new-price-benchmark
  
• epbc-green-tape-is-crippling-renewables-investment-as-timelines-double-report-says
  
• aemo-dials-back-forecasts-for-home-battery-uptake-vpp-participation-as-push-for-rebate-grows
• peter-duttons-nuclear-plan-mad-bad-and-extremely-dangerous
  
• the-coalitions-master-plan-bring-large-scale-wind-solar-and-battery-storage-installations-to-a-halt
  
• Adam Morton on csiro-refutes-coalition-case-nuclear-is-cheaper-than-renewable-energy-due-to-operating-life , never-mind-the-fact-the-coalitions-nuclear-proposal-is-a-fantasy-it-doesnt-even-claim-to-reduce-power-bills
• Adam Morton and Graham Readfearn on building-nuclear-power-plants-australia-cost-csiro-predictions
• Dani Alexander et al on these-3-simple-actions-can-save-you-money-and-help-make-the-most-of-your-rooftop-solar
• Peter Hannan on energy-generators-poke-holes-in-duttons-nuclear-plan-as-questions-over-costings-pile-up
• Johanna Bowyer on oppositions-nuclear-costings-are-unrealistic
• Amandine Denise-Ryan et al on billion-dollars-going-air

Northern America

• institutional economics on trade-policy-uncertainty-shocks-and-the-second-trump-administration
• Ian Millhiser on biden-trump-pardon-power-supreme-court-enemies
• noahopinion on democrats-need-to-loudly-reject-progressive-extremism , insurance-companies-arent-the-main-villian-of-the-US-health-industry
• newdealdemocrat on monthly-rebound-masks-deeper-declining-trends , the-case-for-accelerating-inflation-is-weak
• Abdallah Fayyad on public-housing-america-policy-failure-poverty , democrats-republicans-economic-performance-gdp-growth , hunter-biden-pardon-power-reform
• Joel Eissenberg on the-death-of-free-trade
• Charles Gaba on cbo-not-extending-ira-subsidies
• Keren Landman on maha-rfk-make-america-healthy-again-slippery
• Mark Stern on us-supreme-court-clarence-thomas-samuel-alito-guns-second-amendment
• Kevin Drum on the-elon-musk-slop-machine-is-in-overdrive
• calculated risk on cleveland-fed-median-cpi-increased-02
• Ellen Ioannes on trump-pardon-january-6-insurrection
• Beverly Gage on the-lede/kash-patel-vs-j-edgar-hoover
• Dahlia Lithwick and Mark Stern on trump-cabinet-christopher-wray-resignation-cost
• Kevin Drum on heres-the-simple-truth-about-the-fbi

Europe

• Tyler Cowen on how-is-the-russian-war-economy-doing
• Mainly Macro on the-politics-of-stupid
• Joel Eissenberg on russia-is-not-a-global-power
• Bill Haskell on putins-empire-imploding
• stumbling and mumbling on repairing-the-public-sphere
• Basil Germond on how-the-loss-of-its-mediterranean-naval-base-in-syria-would-weaken-russia-as-a-global-power

Asia

• Saqlain Risve on agartala-attack-strains-india-bangladesh-ties
• Ali Mamouri on bashar-al-assads-regime-has-fallen-in-syria-how-will-this-impact-an-already-fractured-region
• Aymann Ismail on israel-news-palestine-amnesty-international-report
• Marika Somoski on why-bashar-al-assads-security-state-collapsed-so-dramatically-in-syria
• Mehmet Ozalp on why-bashar-al-assads-security-state-collapsed-so-dramatically-in-syria
• Khang Vu on explaining-north-korea-s-silence-amid-south-korea-s-political-turmoil
• Joshua Keating on syria-bashar-assad-damascus-civil-war-refugee
• Sara Harmouch on abu-mohammed-al-golani-may-become-the-face-of-post-assad-syria-but-who-is-he-and-why-does-he-have-10m-us-bounty-on-his-head
• Selwyn Parker on peru-s-new-megaport-reveals-refined-belt-road
• Wendy Earlman on syrians-in-a-triumph-of-hope-turn-the-page-on-the-horrors-of-assad
• Kieran Thompson on trouble-australia-s-best-friends-asia
• Michiyo Miyamato and Sam Reynolds on clean-energy-transition-economic-imperative-japans-new-government

Wonk

• Ronald Dworkin on the-algorithm-and-the-hippocratic-oath Thanks Nick
• Milad Haghani on why-is-soccer-fandom-so-linked-to-violence
• Jiayue-Clara Jiang and Sonia Shah on the-genetic-risk-of-depression-is-a-stronger-predictor-of-heart-problems-in-women-than-men-new-research
• the conversable economist on some-patterns-of-long-run-asset-returns , argentinas-economic-challenge-in-context
• Tyler Cowen on science-and-religious-dogmatism
• Tom Worlik on global-economy-won-t-feel-much-pain-from-trump-agenda-in-2025
• Mathew Ricketson and Andrew Dodd on rupert-murdoch-loses-his-legal-battle-leaving-future-of-media-empire-in-the-balance
• noahopinion on how-paul-krugman-changed-the-public-face-of-economics
• David Heslop and Joel Keep on ignoring-real-biowarfare-threat

General

• Tim Harford on the-games-ill-be-playing-this-christmas
• Ranjodh Singh on are-tobacco-and-cannabis-economic-substitutes-or-complements-new-research-suggests-it-changes-with-age

Climate

• tamino on too-hot , let-it-snow
• real climate on nature-2023-part-ii
• Andrew Lenton and Kerryn Brent on plans-to-stabilise-earths-climate-rely-on-emerging-carbon-removal-technology-we-need-to-get-moving
• Alex Cruz on opportunity-wasted-advance-global-plastic-treaty
• renew economy on 2024-will-be-worlds-hottest-year-on-record-and-the-first-above-1-5c-target
• Peter Sinclair on 2024-arctic-report-card-is-here
• skeptical science on renewables-rise-world-turning-point
• Patricia Schouker on new-energy-shock-complacency-oil-markets-could-ignite-global-crisis
• Moyhu on november-global-surface-templs-same-as-otober
• Ian Sample on unprecedented-risk-to-life-on-earth-scientists-call-for-halt-on-mirror-life-microbe-research

Andrew Gelman (mainly stats)

• jpe
  
• i-work-in-a-biology-lab-my-pi-proposed-a-statistical-test-that-i-think-is-nonsense
  
• close-reading-archive
  
• bias-remaining-after-adjusting-for-pre-treatment-variables-also-the-challenges-of-learning-through-experimentation
  
• answering two questions
• harvard-lexicon-kerfuffle-is-what-you-call-it-when-you-completely-botched-your-data-but-you-dont-want-to-change-your-conclusions
  
• how-a-simple-math-error-sparked-a-panic-about-black-plastic-kitchen-utensils
  
• Freakometrics on post calibration techniques , insurance analytics , data augmentation with variational autencoderfor imbalalnced dataset
• Hassan Vally on if-correlation-doesnt-imply-causation-how-do-scientists-figure-out-why-things-happen

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• Laura Miller on best-books-2024-nonfiction-novels

vox wonk

• government-reform-and-innovation-performance-china
  
• bitcoin-valuation-transactional-demand-versus-speculative-bubble
  
• miracle-or-myth-assessing-macroeconomic-productivity-gains-artificial-intelligence
  
• hidden-dragon-chinas-spillovers-financial-markets-emerging-economies
  
• central-bank-business-surveys-version-20
  
• carbon-tax-reform-fair-efficient-and-budget-neutral
  
• increasing-cost-buying-american
  
• estimating-laffer-tax-rate-capital-income-cross-base-responses-matter
  
• unlocking-green-fdi-emerging-market-and-developing-economies
  

Noah on Kruggers

 Noah Smith talks about Kruggers as he (Kruggers) writes his last column for the NY Times. I did not even know about this!

Kruggers was possibly the most readable economist since the late Joan Robinson. When he wrote a blog it was essential reading. Apparently he is going to substack!

Whoopsy

I should add two things

1. Kruggers has not been wrong very often. I remember David Glasner getting the better of him on the gold standard but David is possibly the only person who understood the gold standard.I think it was Brad De Long who said something like if you think Kruggers is wrong then have a log think about it and then have another because it is likely you are wrong.
2. I do remember Tyler Cowen interviewing Kruggers ostensibly about a book he had written. He actually did not say a word about his book but on the origins of the GFC alah the USA. Greg Mankiw was so impressed he linked the whole thing!