Around the Traps 26/4/24

 It is time for Around the Traps again.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Stephen Duckett on why-the-pathology-bulk-billing-campaign-is-more-about-driving-industry-profits-than-saving-you-money
• Mark the Ballot on various-bayesian-models-for-modelling-voting-intention , the-polls-are-getting-close
• Mathew Crocker on what-if-the-reserve-bank-itself-has-been-feeding-inflation-an-economist-explains
• Anne Twomey on two-people-want-to-share-the-job-of-mp-for-higgins-is-it-constitutional
• Marina Zhang on ensuring-future-made-australia-act-doesn-t-add-global-subsidy-arms-race
• Olli Hellman on from-gallipoli-to-gaza-remembering-the-anzacs-not-as-a-coming-of-age-tale-but-as-a-lesson-for-the-future
• David Hayward on the-nsw-treasurer-says-a-slashed-share-of-gst-will-cost-his-state-11-9-billion-but-where-did-he-get-this-figure
• Mick Ryan on warfare-changes-so-does-australian-strategy
• Ross Gittins on buildings-as-batteries-for-net-zero
• John Hawkins on inflation-is-slowly-falling-while-student-debt-is-climbing-6-graphs-that-explain-todays-cpi
• Greg Jericho on australia-inflation-rate-cpi-figures-hecs-debt-help-student-loan-debts
• Stephen Grenville on australia-s-comparative-advantage-climate-transition

OZ Climate

• ev-fast-charger-pioneer-tritium-calls-in-administrators-after-declaring-itself-to-be-insolvent
  
• australias-biggest-wind-and-solar-auction-set-for-may-with-focus-on-coal-heavy-nsw
  
• record-wind-and-solar-push-down-prices-across-grid-except-for-most-coal-dependent-state
  
• poles-and-wires-is-there-a-better-way-to-get-consumers-to-pay-for-using-the-grid
  
• nationals-threaten-to-tear-up-wind-and-solar-contracts-as-nuclear-misinformation-swings-polls
• Rohan Fisher on vastly-bigger-than-the-black-summer-84-million-hectares-of-northern-australia-burned-in-2023

Northern America

• John Lennon on how-to-publish-a-magazine-in-a-maximum-security-prison Thanks Nick
• Tim Bakken and Karrin Anderson on how-trump-is-using-courtroom-machinations-to-his-political-advantage
• Molly Omstead on ukraine-russia-congress-johnson-republicans-marjorie-greene-putin-propaganda
• the conversable economist on the-imf-warns-about-us-budget-deficits, the-jones-act-consequences-of-a-destructive-industrial-policy
• Monoj Harjani on are-us-export-controls-making-china-s-chip-industry-more-innovative
• David Frum on trump-deflates
• Ian Millhiser on supreme-court-donald-trump-immunity-january-6-president , supreme-court-donald-trump-immunity-jack-smith
• Umair Irfan on energy-efficiency-appliances-stove-washing-machine-climate
• Amanda Lewellyn on canada-populism-justin-trudeau-budget-plan
• Phillip Lacovara and Dennis Aftergut on supreme-court-trump-immunity-jan-6-trial
• Ellen Ioannes and Nicole Narea on columbia-student-protests-gaza-nyu-divest-faculty
• Adam Serwer on columbia-national-guard-tom-cotton
• Robert Reich on israel-gaza-campus-protests
• Antonia Hitchens on the-political-scene/the-gops-election-integrity-trap
• Menzie Chinn on almost-landed
• Jeet Heer on biden-policy-israel-impunity-iran
• Dahlia Lithwick and Mark Stern on supreme-court-immunity-arguments-which-way-now

Europe

• Intigam Mamedov on russia-and-the-taliban-heres-why-putin-wants-to-get-closer-to-afghanistans-current-rulers
• Joseph Webster on kyrgyzstan-route-facilitating-russia-s-invasion-ukraine
• Timothy Snyder on the_west_needs_to_accept_that_regime_change_in_russia_will_look_odd_and_scary_but_we_cant_control_it
• Mainly Macro on the-bernanke-review-of-bank-of-england-forecasting

Asia

• James Horncastle on israel-hits-back-at-iran-how-domestic-politics-is-determining-israeli-actions
• Pria Chacko on with-democracy-under-threat-in-narendra-modis-india-how-free-and-fair-will-this-years-election-be
• Sanchita Bhattachayra on afghan-women-silent-victims-taliban-brutality
• Ellen Ioannes on israel-iran-conflict-middle-east-gaza-war-hamas
• Menzie Chinn on the-chinese-real-exchange-rate-down-15-since-2022m03 , chinese-gdp-in-q1
• Kunal Sen on how-indias-economy-has-fared-under-ten-years-of-narendra-modi
• Kashif Anwar on china-s-high-ambition-low-altitude-economy
• Tarik Solmaz on three-factors-hardening-china-s-stance-taiwan
• Omar al-Najjar on in-gazas-hospitals

Wonk

• Terry Eagleton on where-does-culture-come-from Thanks Nick
• Tim Harford on a-tiktok-ban-wont-solve-social-medias-collective-trap
• noahopinion on how-latin-america-started-to-beat-inequality , palestine-is-the-end-of-the-line-for-the-new-left
• John Quiggin on expertise-and-naval-power
• Kim Herriot-Darragh on fonops-send-message-they-don-t-speak-themselves
• the conversable economist on three-options-for-taxing-wealth
• John Quiggin on the-war-to-end-war-still-going-on
• Alex Tabarrok on the-prisoners-dilemma-of-non-competes

General

• Meg Walker et al on cave-diving-for-fossils
• Magdelena Bunbury and Guido Gnecchi-Ruscone on ancient-nomads-youve-probably-never-heard-of-disappeared-from-europe-1-000-years-ago-now-dna-analysis-reveals-how-they-lived
• Julien Cooper on new-rock-art-discoveries-in-eastern-sudan-tell-a-tale-of-ancient-cattle-the-green-sahara-and-climate-catastrophe

Climate

• stoat on there-is-no-human-right-to-safe-or-stable-climate
• Dan Lowry on west-antarcticas-ice-sheet-was-smaller-thousands-of-years-ago-heres-why-this-matters-today
• Sharon Robinson et al on longer-lasting-ozone-holes-over-antarctica-expose-seal-pups-and-penguin-chicks-to-much-more-uv
• Umair Irfan on climate-change-peak-greenhouse-gas-emissions-action

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• analogy-between-a-model-checking-in-bayesian-statistics-and-b-the-self-correcting-nature-of-science
  
• now-heres-a-tour-de-force-for-ya
  
• decorative-statistics-and-historical-records
  
• what-is-your-superpower
  
• for-that-price-he-couldve-had-54-jamaican-beef-patties-or-1-216-of-a-conference-featuring-gray-davis-grover-norquist-and-a-rabbi
  
• gist-gibbs-self-tuning-for-hmc
  
• population-forecasting-for-small-areas-an-example-of-learning-through-a-social-network
  
• Kaiser Fung on know-your-data-36-the-what-and-the-why, a-ceo-says-they-will-spend-money-to-lose-money

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• uber-goes-to-washington
  

vox wonk

• reforming-innovation-policy-help-eu-escape-middle-technology-trap
  
• exposure-soap-operas-featuring-lgbtq-characters-has-negative-short-term-impact
  
• international-trade-brown-shares-and-economic-development
  
• price-and-output-responses-supply-disruptions-times-high-uncertainty
  
• natural-rate-interest-after-pandemic
  
• nurturing-childhood-curiosity-enhance-learning-randomised-pedagogical-intervention
  
• co-authorship-economics-aftermath-metoo
  
• using-spatial-integrated-assessment-models-understand-local-and-global-economic
  
• impact-exchange-rates-japans-machinery-exports-1990
  

The CPI means rate cuts could be some way off

 The ABS released the quarterly CPI yesterday.

It surprised me and just about everyone else on the upside.

The good news is rate rises have very sharply cut the prices on goods  and anything influenced by the tradable sector.

The bad news is prices in the services sector and non-tradable sector appears to be gaining strength again.

Hence the more competition you have anywhere the more inflations drops and vica versa.

The other thing we have to be wary of is the number released yesterday could be an outlier. It has occurred previously . Just ask Glenn Stevens he got two of them.

The RBA has to examine the monthly CPI and other price series in surveys. ( Just one thing Institutional economics said the budget gave the ABS enough money so the monthly CPI would be the same as the quarterly CPI just like almost every other Western country. This was obviously wrong unfortunately.) If that information shows inflation is dropping then they will cut. My guess is they will wait until the quarterly CPI shows this.

If this happens then rate cuts will not occur until late this year at the earliest.

Here is something from the Guardian on this.

Just how stupid are we Aussies

 That title got you!

When the referendum failed we found out most Australians voted no because they did not understand what was proposed. They did not even take the time to find out what the referendum, was about and then make an educated decision. They preferred ignorance and blamed others for the decision they made.

It seems this is again occurring with regards to energy. They believe renewables are the highest cost provider of electricity. The only problem with this is they are the exact opposite. How could people believe this. There has been plenty of evidence to show renewables are EASILY the lowest cost provider of electricity. see HERE

What is going on in Australia. There is no use blaming politicians for this. Australians have to accept responsibility for educating themselves which means more intelligent policies going forward.

Israel should put up or shut up

 remember how Israel claimed they had documentary evidence that some employees of UNRWA had participated in the October 7 slaughter?

Well it seems their claims should be taken with a huge grain of salt. It is bit like their claims of Hamas having their underground headquarters under the largest hospital in Gaza.

I never believe anything coming out of hamas as they lie all the time. Their claims have to be verified.

It seems this should equally be applied to Israel.

On a completely different area an ABC journalist is being told to leave India because of her reporting. India copying China

I do not like Sub stack

 Back in the old days People wrote blogs and you read the best of them but most importantly you did not pay for the  pleasure of reading them.

Then we had substack where people tried to commercialise on their success on writing blogs. The only problem was you had to pay for the pleasure of reading them.

If I might just add academics and journalists were the people who had a competitive advantage in writing blogs. They were writing on stories and concepts they kept up to date with because of their jobs, noah smith, Brad De Long and John Quiggin quickly come to mind as examples. The late Mark Colvin was a magnificent example on twitter.

The problem of substacks is twofold as I see it.

1. If you subscribe to any it must reduce the avenues you have read on certain subject. None of us have so much money we can subscribe to all these substacks.
2. If you commercialise your blog it must have high quality articles ALL the time. Sorry but this just does not happen. I do like noah smith for example but sometimes the articles are simply articles which are boring. This happens because sometimes there is little happening, sometimes your inventive juices are not working. You get the picture

Bah humbug I say to substacks. Can you imagine someone putting up a Dickey Betts guitar wonderland as I di yesrday. Nope.  Anyone could look it up on youtube and so it cannot be commercialised.

Bring back the old blogs

The Allman Brothers

 I was saddened to hear the death of Dickey Betts the guitarist for the Allman Brothers. He was not as good as Duane Allman but he was good enough.

Here he is on one of his songs rambling man

Around the Traps 19/4/24

 It is time again for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Naoise McDonagh on australia-is-playing-catch-up-with-the-future-made-in-australia-act-will-it-be-enough
• Terry Goldsworthy on as-australia-reels-from-the-bondi-attack-such-mass-murder-incidents-remain-rare
• Peter Martin on scrap-the-west-australian-gst-deal-set-to-cost-40-billion-leading-economists
• Kevin Bonham on every-child-wins-prize-federal-seats
• Brendan Clift on judge-finds-bruce-lehrmann-raped-brittany-higgins-and-dismisses-network-10-defamation-case-how-did-it-play-out
• John Quiggin on duttons-decaying-nuclear-energy-plans-have-the-briefest-half-life
• Adam Loch et al on water-theft-laws-and-penalties-in-the-murray-darling-basin-are-a-dogs-breakfast-heres-how-we-can-fix-them
• Dennis Muller on how-the-lehrmann-v-channel-10-defamation-case-shone-an-unflattering-light-on-commercial-news-gathering
• Sam Bennett and Hannah Orban on choice-and-control-the-ndis-was-designed-to-give-participants-choice-but-mandatory-registration-could-threaten-this
• Greg Barton on why-is-the-sydney-church-stabbing-an-act-of-terrorism-but-the-bondi-tragedy-isnt
• Greg Jericho on funding-australias-renewable-transition-isnt-picking-winners-its-securing-our-future
• Sarah Dehm and Anthea Vogl on the-high-court-is-hearing-another-high-stakes-immigration-case-can-people-be-forced-to-assist-in-their-own-deportation
• Greg Earl on economic-diplomacy-made-australia-new-energy

OZ Climate

• Yuanyuan Huang on trillions-of-tonnes-of-carbon-locked-in-soil-has-been-left-out-of-environmental-models-and-its-on-the-move
• Joe Fontaine et al on the-big-dry-forests-and-shrublands-are-dying-in-parched-western-australia
• origin-snaps-up-australia-biggest-wind-project-and-big-battery-as-it-ramps-up-late-renewables-push
  
• Britta Schafflke et al on global-coral-bleaching-caused-by-global-warming-demands-a-global-response
• climate-authority-says-75-pct-cut-in-emissions-achievable-as-australia-mulls-2035-target
  
• unparalleledrooftop-solar-now-a-major-player-in-australias-grid-but-households-need-more-batteries
  
• renewables-drive-down-prices-in-first-quarter-but-heatwaves-and-outages-cause-spikes-in-coal-dominated-grids
  
• worst-week-for-wind-but-is-that-a-reason-to-panic-about-transition-to-renewables

Northern America

• Institutional Economics on disinflations-progress
• Shirin Ali on adeel-mangi-why-are-democrats-letting-islamophobia-sabotage-judicial-nomination
• new deal democrat on march-consumer-price-inflation-was-still-mainly-about-the-dynamics-of-shelter-and-gas-prices
• The liberal patriot on the-democrats-patriotism-problem Thanks Nick
• Mark Stern on stormy-daniels-prosecution-stronger-than-i-thought , january-6-donald-trump-prosecution-obstruction-supreme-court
• Mary Bock on trumps-new-york-felony-charges-are-going-to-trial-what-the-images-might-show-when-the-business-fraud-case-kicks-off
• Ian Millhiser on supreme-court-mckesson-doe-first-amendment-protest-black-lives-matter , supreme-court-january-6-insurrection-riot-fischer-united-states , supreme-court-homeless-grants-pass-martin-crime-grants-pass-johnson
• the conversable economist on why-so-many-shareholders-of-us-firms-are-untaxed
• institutional economics on trump-versus-the-impossible-trinity
• David Frum on joe-biden-donald-trump-presidential-debate
• Eric Loch on donald-trumps-trial-of-the-century
• Amy Sorkin on the-supreme-court-asks-what-enron-has-to-do-with-january-6th-and-trump
• Menzie Chinn on different-measures-of-consumer-prices
• noahopinion on five-things-to-be-optimistic-about-america-today

Europe

• Mick Ryan on ukraine-war-how-check-russia-s-momentum
• Temmuz Bezmez on erdogan-s-election-blow-will-shape-turkiye-s-foreign-policy
• Nikola Mikovic on russia-conundrum-caucasus-beyond

Asia

• Unherd on iran-is-winning-the-gaza-war Thanks Nick
• Menzie Chinn on guest-contribution-on-the-time-varying-impact-of-chinas-bilateral-political-relations-on-its-trading-partners-doux-commerce-or-trade-follows-the-flag
• Ran Porat on irans-unprecedented-attack-on-israel-was-a-strategic-miscalculation-can-all-out-war-now-be-averted
• Priya Chacko on with-democracy-under-threat-in-narendra-modis-india-how-free-and-fair-will-this-years-election-be
• Fred Kaplan on israel-iran-attack-war-missiles-drones-cyberattack
• Denny Roy on why-china-remains-unlikely-invade-taiwan
• Mixin Pei on an-interview-with-minxin-pei-about-the-sentinel-state-china-economy-surveillance-repression Thanks Brad
• Lydia Khalil on iran-israel-escalation-calculus
• Haleema Shah on israel-palestine-conflict-settler-colonialism-zionism-history-debate
• noahopinion on why-china-is-defeating-tesla

Wonk

• Tim Harford on cautionary-tales-the-rise-and-fall-of-a-megalomaniac
• noahopinion on twilight-of-the-economists , why-so-many-of-us-were-wrong-about-missile-defence
• stumbling and mumbling on some-defunct-economist
• Mainly Macro on could-governments-finance-deficits-by-creating-money
• John Authers et al on rate-cuts-covid-inflation-central-banks Thanks Brad
• Flavio Macau on will-global-oil-supply-be-at-risk-if-iran-and-israel-pull-the-middle-east-into-war
• the conversable economist on interview-with-david-dunning-of-dunning-kruger-fame
• Tyler Cowen on the-ludwig-von-mises-comeback
• Uneasy Money on my-new-paper-on-hawtrey-is-available-on-ssrn

General

•  Alessandro Toffoli on rogue-waves-in-the-ocean-are-much-more-common-than-anyone-suspected-says-new-study
• Diana Kuchinke on why-the-kookaburras-iconic-laugh-is-at-risk-of-being-silenced
• Mathew Stewart et al on first-evidence-of-ancient-human-occupation-found-in-giant-lava-tube-cave-in-saudi-arabia
• Bryan Walsh on bluey-kids-children-television-show-the-sign-disney-australia-joe-brumm-parenthood

Climate

• skeptical science on fact-brief-1998 , at-a-glance-is-the-science-settled , how-extreme-temperature-2023
• Nicholas Lubitz and David Schoeman on climate-change-is-causing-marine-coldwaves-too-killing-wildlife
• Moyhu on giss-march-global-temperature-down-from-february
• Graham Readfearn on great-barrier-reef-coral-bleaching-global-heating
• renew economy on technology-denial-columbia-law-school-debunks-33-biggest-myths-about-solar-wind-and-evs
• Met Office on antarctic-sea-ice-in-2023

Andrew Gelman (mainly stats)

• evidence-desire-support
  
• intelligence-is-whatever-machines-cannot-yet-do
  
• evidence-desire-support
  
• simulation-to-understand-measurement-error-in-regression
  
• no-its-not-statistically-implausible-when-results-differ-between-studies-or-between-different-groups-within-a-study
  
• n43-a-statistically-significant-226-improvement-what-could-possibly-go-wrong
  
• do-research-articles-have-to-be-so-one-sided
  
• close-but-no-cigar-unit-tests-and-bias-in-mcmc
  
• infovis-infographics-and-data-visualization-my-thoughts-12-years-later
  
• the-data-are-on-a-1-5-scale-the-mean-is-4-61-and-the-standard-deviation-is-1-64-whats-so-wrong-about-that
  
• the conversable economist on statistics-is-literally-statecraft

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• language-in-the-always-on-world
  
• who-counts
  

Vox Wonk

• managing-transition-central-bank-digital-currency
  
• intergenerational-income-mobility-france-comparative-and-geographic-analysis
  
• leader-spouses-and-informal-influence-foreign-aid
  
• peer-effects-field-study-choices
  
• understanding-diversity-and-discrimination-dynamics-classroom
  
• us-firms-have-little-financial-incentive-comply-minimum-wage
  
• corporate-debt-and-financial-crises
  
• religious-people-cope-better-crisis-evidence-uk-pandemic-lockdown
  
• behavioural-responses-wealth-taxation-evidence-colombia
  
• ukraines-reconstruction-policy-options-building-effective-financial-architecture
  
• populist-dynamic-experimental-evidence-effects-countering-populism
  
• cascades-tax-policy-through-production-networks-evidence-japan
  
• silence-golden-how-public-criticism-central-banks-can-backfire-leaders
  
• positioning-global-value-chains-new-dataset-available-global-value-chain-analyses