the Budget and other things

 Here are a few articles on the budget.

• tax-cuts-are-coming-but-not-soon-in-a-cautious-budget
  
• the-2025-budget-has-few-savings-and-surprises-but-it-also-ignores-climate-change
  
• the-government-is-timid-and-uninspired-the-budget-is-a-perfect-fit
  

My only comment is I think the BEST measure announced is that non-competitive clauses will be legislated against. It is fantastic.

Sorry my second is without the tax cuts the structural deficit would not increase.There was no need to do this. Just remember it is the change in the structural deficit that counts.

A bonus

• poll-roundup-coalition-support-slides
  

On the complete embarrassment in the USA

• why-is-the-us-group-chat-on-houthi-attack-plans-so-concerning-a-military-operations-expert-explains
  
• signal-group-chat-hegseth-vance-waltz-trump-administration
  

Always remember most of the trump administration are simply incompetent. This is merely another example. DOGE is another.

Just remember one of the group was in moscow at the time!

what does the rule of law mean?

Over in the failed state of the USA people are rightly accusing Trump of abusing the rule of law.

The main ingredient of the rule of law is due process. Due process is usually a trial. Proving a person is a criminal is as easy as proving voting fraud. It seems Trump can do neither.

Please note there were two problems in the jetting off of those 'illegal' immigrants. The first is whether the act they were sent was legal. The other was the utter failure for Trump to show evidence of the assertions he made which is necessary to deport them. There are problems.

Thus in any democracy a government must adhere to due process. A government that doesn't is veering to autocracy. It gets worse when people are denied entry to a country when officials demand to look at people's phones and deny entry if there is anything critical of trump!

Allman Brothers

 When dicky Betts died I said duanne allman was the superior guitarist.

Well the solo on you don't love me on the live at the filmore album might change people's minds! go to about 8.30 minute if you are impatient!

breath taking.  If Duane had not died who knows where they would have gone

Around the Traps 21/3/25

 It is time for Around the Traps again.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Alex Vassiley on after-30-years-on-the-outer-unions-could-soon-return-to-the-pilbara-heres-why-thats-a-big-deal
• John Blaxland on cooler-heads-must-prevail-with-trump-australia-shouldnt-give-up-on-the-special-friendship
• Charles Livingstone on whatever-happens-to-star-the-age-of-unfettered-gambling-revenue-for-casinos-may-have-ended
• Ross Gittins on argy-bargy-on-way-to-next-weeks-off-again-on-again-budget , trump-is-making-huge-blunder-heres-how-we-seize-the-moment
• Felicity Deane on the-next-round-in-the-us-trade-war-has-the-potential-to-be-more-damaging-for-australia
• Greg Jericho on expect-a-lot-of-talk-from-chalmers-about-the-deficit-but-remember-the-golden-rule-budgets-are-always-about-choices
• John Quiggin on the-australian-economy-has-changed-dramatically-since-2000-the-way-we-work-now-is-radically-different
• Luke Beck on peter-dutton-wants-to-deport-criminal-dual-citizens-we-already-have-laws-for-that
• Richard Dunley on australian-defence-nebulous-archipelago
• Hugh Piper on new-transactional-era-australia-s-us-alliance-needs-review
• Mark the Ballot on mid-march-2025-update
• Bonny Parkinson on australias-pbs-means-consumers-pay-less-for-expensive-medicines-heres-how-this-system-works
• Anthony Scott et al on will-the-us-trade-war-push-up-the-price-of-medicines-in-australia-will-there-be-drug-shortages

OZ Climate

• energy-ministers-push-for-rethink-on-how-regulator-sets-electricity-price-benchmark
  
• solar-battery-deal-for-giant-smelter-is-a-stunning-game-changer-for-australian-energy
  
• do-retail-electricity-prices-really-need-to-increase-from-july
  
• giant-eight-hour-battery-project-changes-hands-as-storage-costs-plunge-40-per-cent
  
• white-hot-rage-pv-industry-begs-governments-to-do-better-on-solar-switch-off
  
• dutton-blames-renewables-for-rising-power-prices-but-bills-would-be-much-higher-without-them
  
• gas-shortage-warnings-pushed-out-three-years-as-households-and-businesses-go-electric
  
• four-new-giant-batteries-to-be-built-in-w-a-as-worlds-biggest-isolated-grid-navigates-transition-from-coal
  
• 
  
• Timothy Weber and Andrew Blakers on why-build-nuclear-power-in-place-of-old-coal-when-you-could-have-pumped-hydropower-instead
• Albert Van Djik et al on rain-gave-australias-environment-a-fourth-year-of-reprieve-in-2024-but-this-masks-deepening-problems-report

Northern America

• institutional economics on putting-paid-to-the-trump-put
• Brad De Long on draft-yes-this-is-who-we-are-the-forthcoming-deportation of -Mahmoud-Khalil , blame-the-right-wing-noise-machine
• Jonathan Rauch on corruption-trump-administration Thanks Nick
• Kruggers on the-paranoid-style-in-maga-policy Thanks Nick
• the weekly dish on the-return-of-the-mccarthyite-chill Thanks Nick
• Richard Haniana on liberals-only-censor-musk-seeks-to-lobotomise Thanks Nick
• Jess Craig on foreign-aid-cuts-trump-charts-usaid-pepfar-who-hiv
• noahopinion on its-time-to-start-panicking-about-the-national-debt , dems-need-to-moderate-and-fight
• Andrew Prokop on trump-deportations-judge-boasberg-el-salvador
• Ian Millhiser on trump-defy-supreme-court-alawieh-deportation
• the conversable economist on snapshots-about-the-federal-workforce
• Ali Hoenig on is-trump-actively-defying-a-court-order-on-deportations
• Riley Duke on us-aid-cuts-are-soft-power-surrender-china
• Sussanna Patton on silencing-voice-america
• Menzie Chinn on jeffrey-frankel-where-next-for-u-s-economy
• Frank Figliuzzi on fbi-bongino-patel-politicization-trump-newsletter
• Joel Eissenberg on will-trumpism-drive-a-brain-drain-in-the-us
• Zack Beauchamp on trump-pro-israel-antisemitism-musk-columbia
• Christopher Eisgruber on columbia-academic-freedom
• Christopher Browning on trump-antisemitism-academia
• Nadia El Haj on mahmoud-khalil-is-not-safe
• Ruth Marcus on the-trump-administration-nears-open-defiance-of-the-courts
• David Cole on mahmoud-khalil-and-the-last-time-pro-palestinian-activists-faced-deportation
• David Smith on trump-is-ignoring-the-power-of-nationalism-at-his-own-peril
• Eric Levitz on ezra-klein-thompson-abundance-book-criticism
• Shirin ali and Mark Stern on immigration-trump-news-mass-deportations-tren-de-aragua
• Frank Bowman on trump-impeach-judges-constitution-threat

Europe

• unherd on europes-great-delusion Thanks Nick
• Menzie Chinn on the-russian-economy-under-more-pressure
• Galnya Piskorska on local-newspapers-are-a-lifeline-in-ukraine-but-usaid-cuts-may-force-many-to-close-or-become-biased-mouthpieces
• Mick Ryan on dispatch-ukraine-adaptation-battle-intensifies
• Eglantine Staunton on pivotal-moment-european-strategic-autonomy-courtesy-trump
• Celeste Wallander on key-ukraines-survival
• Jon Richardson on putin-made-trump-wait-then-strung-him-along-its-clear-his-war-aims-in-ukraine-have-not-changed

Asia

• Andrew Selth on russia-boost-myanmar-s-imagery-intelligence
• noahopinion on china-is-trying-to-kneecap-indian-manufacturing
• Selwyn Parker on suez-battles-forces-beyond-its-control
• Saqlain Rizve on battle-without-weapons-fuels-india-pakistan-nationalism
• Marika Sosnosnki on the-israel-hamas-ceasefire-didnt-resolve-any-deep-seated-issues-now-its-shattered , why-did-the-israel-hamas-ceasefire-fall-apart-it-was-never-going-to-solve-the-root-causes-of-the-conflict
• Gabriela Bernal on command-sovereignty-who-controls-south-korea-s-military-wartime
• Su Thant on china-s-tightrope-walk-mediating-myanmar
• Khang Vu on north-korea-tourist-trap

Wonk

• Josh Marshall on toward-a-theory-of-civic-sede-vacantism Thanks Nick
• unpopular front on gold-and-brown Thanks Nick
• Andrea Wong on duterte-s-icc-arrest-day-reckoning
• Tim Harford on what-elon-can-learn-from-the-original-doge
• stumbling and mumbling on constraints
• the conversable economist on mistaken-identities-the-international-trade-version , private-credit-replacing-banks-for-business-loans , interview-with-paul-krugman-trade-and-industrial-policy
• Henry Storey on will-trump-force-europe-china-s-arms
• mainly macro on falling-confidence-in-vaccination

General

• the ruffian on the-potency-of-jokes Thanks Nick
• Laura Driessen on saturn-now-has-274-moons-but-exactly-what-makes-something-a-moon-remains-unclear
• Randall Wayth on less-than-1-of-the-worlds-biggest-radio-telescope-is-complete-but-its-first-image-reveals-a-sky-dotted-with-ancient-galaxies
• Themiya Nannayakkara on youve-heard-of-the-big-bang-now-astronomers-have-discovered-the-big-wheel-heres-why-its-significant

Climate

• and Then Theres Physics on reaping-the-whirlwind
• real climate on climate-change-in-africa , andean-glaciers-have-shrunk-more-than-ever-before-in-the-holocene/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=andean-glaciers-have-shrunk-more-than-ever-before-in-the-holocene
• Andrew King and Luke Ashcroft on flooding-in-the-sahara-amazon-tributaries-drying-and-warming-tipping-over-1-5-c-2024-broke-all-the-wrong-records
• David Appell on is-ocean-heat-content-really-accelerating

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• debate-about-quantum-supremacy-whatever-that-is
  
• whats-the-best-artistic-literary-format-for-conveying-the-feel-of-the-slacker-lifestyle-two-slacker-stories-by-lucy-sante-and-matt-madden
  
• how-is-the-integrity-crisis-in-business-reporting-like-the-integrity-crisis-in-science
  
• why-isnt-the-cramer-rao-lower-bound-invoked-more-in-applied-research
  
• speaking-of-government-waste
  
• new-paper-on-conformal-prediction-and-human-decisions
  
• why-i-use-the-term-forking-paths
  
• how-is-an-american-research-university-funded
  
• you-can-learn-a-lot-from-a-simple-simulation-example-of-experimental-design-with-unequal-variances-for-treatment-and-control-data
  
• statschat on denominators , good-news-graph
• freakometrics on equipy
• Kaiser Fung on self-checkout-keeps-growing-despite-theft

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• catching-up
  
• noahopinion on book-review-abundance

Vox Wonk

• estimating-local-gdp-everywhere
  
• spooky-boundaries-distance-inductive-bias-dynamic-models-and-behavioural-macro
  
• happiness-reference-dependence-and-motivated-beliefs-us-presidential-elections
  
• impact-trumps-economic-policy-eu-economy
  
• government-multipliers-are-symmetric-positive-and-negative-spending-shocks-new
  
• effects-parental-leave-policy-reforms-fertility-and-gender-gaps
  
• income-wealth-and-environmental-inequality-us
  
• ai-automation-and-rise-female-employment-europe
  
• cybersecurity-vulnerabilities-and-their-financial-impact
  
• government-subsidies-large-manufacturing-firms-insights-oecd-magic-database
  
• technological-innovation-bank-supervision-how-suptech-disciplines-bank-risk-taking
  

Why has Tesla tanked

 The price of Tesla shares have fallen over 50% at the time of writing. Why has this occurred?

To my mind it is all about Elon Musk.

Firstly the time Musk is using doing 'doge' work is time he is not concentrating on restoring tesla's fortunes. This is very important.

Secondly there is Musk himself. Before twitter and the election we knew little of Musk. He was the genius behind Tesla  ( which always looked way overvalued. Have you ever looked at their P/E ratios?).

 His takeover of twitter showed he was not the genius at all. His cuts at twitter were poorly thought out if there was any thought put into the cuts.Then we had Musk championing conspiracy theories he reads on twitter. Lastly He lies, like trump , like there is no tomorrow. An example. He claims Democrats wants undocumented immigrants in the USA so they can get social security and then vote for them in elections.  Only problem is undocumented immigrants contribute to social security but cannot collect anything. It is for the same reason they cannot vote. They are undocumented. No documentation then no registering!!!

Put all that together and your view of Musk and therefore Tesla  is viewed in a very different light.

The world is in a bad place

 Trump and Putin had a telephone call to discuss 'peace' in the russian war against Ukraine. It was a joke. Putin for example demanded Ukraine get NO aid or intelligence from any nation. He does not want peace he wants Ukraine.I would not mind betting he thinks NATO is in such a disarray because of the US he could invade a NATO country and little would happen.

Israel commenced bombing in Gaza killing hundreds of people. Again it seems they do not care how many palestinians are killed if they kill some Hamas personnel. This act is as barbaric as was the Hams massacre. It is all about revenge and merely spreads hate. Hate begats more killing.

In the USA people are removed without due process. Authorities do not attempt to prove their acessations they act on them. There is no attempt to act within the rule of law. This is the worst example the USA could do with the rest of the world looking on. It is a lot of things democracy it is not.

The world is in a bad place

Just when you don't think they can't get any worse

 A common criminal breaks the law. I'm shocked.

See

• trump-defy-supreme-court-alawieh-deportation
  
• trump-deportations-judge-boasberg-el-salvador
  
• donald-trump-sister-mahmoud-khalil-abduction
• is-trump-actively-defying-a-court-order-on-deportations
  

Trump is now challenging the courts just as people said he would. Will the rule of law win out.

what mobsters like trump do not understand is capitalism only thrives when the rule of law is paramount. It does not thrive when it is who you know NOT what you know is in operation.

Low IQ common criminals do not understand this and it explains why the economy rarely thrives under dictators or wannabe dictators.

I should add two points

1. The only evidence prurred that the people were members of a criminal gang was the tattoos. I'm no expert og gangs but even I have heard of people getting tattoos to avoid violence by the said gangs!
2. Thus far the government have not even matched Biden in the number of illegal immigrants they have gotten and even then almost half of them are not even criminals. Indeed they have no asked congress for more money to implement the program,