Around the Traps 12/12/35

 It is time for Around the Traps again.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Adam Triggs on theres-a-lot-of-talk-about-regulatory-burden-activity Thanks Nick
• Felix Barbalet on the-strategy-shaped-object Thanks Nick
• Anthony Whealy on jobs-for-mates-review-damning-government-response-a-failure Thanks Nick
• the tally room on how would the one nation surge translate into seats
• Mark the Graph on building-toy-macro-model-for-australia , the-neutral-rate-debate-what-comes-after-15-years-of-emergency , november-jobs-market-caution-may-be-misplaced , the-case-for-rba-patience-is-getting-stronger
• croaking cassandra on productivity-growth-or-lack-of-it-3 , geoeconomics-fragmentation-the-future-of-globalisation , fiscal-failure-2 , and-that-is-that
• John Quiggin on illegal-tobacco-is-messing-up-economic-data-that-wont-stop-until-its-managed-like-alcohol
• Joel Scanlan on banning-kids-from-social-media-doesnt-make-online-platforms-safer-heres-what-will-do-that
• Stella Huangfu on the-rba-is-stuck-in-a-tug-of-war-as-it-holds-rates-steady
• Greg Jericho on no-wonder-michele-bullocks-dramatic-departure-from-the-rbas-interest-rate-script-left-markets-swinging-wildly
• Tarner Leaver on australias-social-media-ban-wont-stop-cyberbullying
• Anthony Scott and Terence Cheng on private-hospitals-are-in-trouble-heres-what-this-means-for-public-hospitals-and-taxpayer-dollars
• Lisa Denny on as-the-population-ages-the-rbas-interest-rate-policy-is-no-longer-fit-for-purpose
• Tony Wood on government-reveals-taxpayer-funded-deal-to-keep-australias-largest-aluminium-smelter-open-how-long-we-will-pay

OZ Climate

• agl-backed-offshore-wind-farm-pulls-out-of-contention-for-gippsland-zone
• biggest-battery-to-date-on-australias-main-grid-officially-opened-in-time-for-summer 
  
• dont-rush-to-raise-fixed-electricity-charges-we-need-to-reform-network-regulation-first
  
• how-more-wind-and-batteries-push-electricity-prices-down-even-while-gas-prices-stay-high
  
• big-batteries-hit-more-than-40-pct-of-early-morning-demand-before-rooftop-pv-floods-the-grid
  
• aemos-latest-isp-plots-a-steady-course-but-private-sector-is-running-out-of-excuses
  
• isp-warns-of-missed-targets-and-added-costs-from-delays-and-as-lnp-throws-coal-spanner-in-the-works
  
• whats-wrong-with-this-chart-a-short-case-study-in-graphical-misinformation
  
• energy-market-rule-maker-wants-to-kill-loyalty-tax-on-consumers-and-to-hike-fixed-network-charges
  
• households-to-pay-full-cost-for-new-gas-connections-as-rules-change-to-contain-network-death-spiral
  
• one-of-australias-biggest-solar-farms-in-heart-of-queensland-coal-country-reaches-full-commercial-operations
  
• queensland-lnp-dumps-renewable-targets-but-can-they-teach-their-coal-plants-to-dance-around-solar
  
• households-to-pay-full-cost-for-new-gas-connections-as-rules-change-to-contain-network-death-spiral
  
• the-gas-death-spiral-is-here-why-user-pays-could-create-a-zombie-network
  
• Peter Newman and Ray Wills on big-batteries-are-now-outcompeting-gas-in-the-grid-and-gas-rich-western-australia-is-at-the-forefront

Northern America

• Menzie Chinn on instantaneous-pce-core-inflation-at-2-9
• Ian Millhiser on supreme-court-texas-gerrymander-abbott-lulac , supreme-court-trump-slaughter-unitary-executive
• Dahlia Lithwick and Mark Stern on supreme-court-trump-2026-midterms-texas-disaster , judge-roasts-supreme-court-kavanaugh-stops
• noahpinion on they-need-to-make-you-hate-some-group, trump-says-that-you-are-the-problem
• Tyler Cowen on political-pressure-on-the-fed
• the conversable economist on medicaid-what-it-has-become
• Kruggers on affordability-part-ii , is-this-the-end-of-the-free-world , america-has-become-a-digital-narco ,donald-trump-security-threat
• Anne Applebaum on ukraine-fighting-corruption-trump
• Henry Farrell on america-has-identified-its-greatest-enemy-western-europe Thanks Brad
• Fred Kaplan  on trump-national-security-strategy-2025-analysis , trump-venezuela-oil-tanker-seizure
• home and away on special-edition-america-adrift
• Menzie Chinn on q-theory-in-a-time-of-ai
• David Daley on justice-roberts-voting-rights-act
• Christopher Bosso on want-in-the-midst-of-abundance
• Amy Sorkin on is-the-supreme-court-unsure-about-birthright-citizenship
• Lisa Rubin on alina-habba-and-lindsey-halligan-arent-the-only-ones
• Jeet Heer on donald-trump-sleepy-energy
• Hassan Vally on the-united-states-cdc-has-abandoned-science-in-its-new-advice-about-vaccines-and-autism
• Dylan Scott on health-insurance-marketplace-aca-tax-credits-expire
• Brad De Long on and-people-had-no-problem-saying-Joe- Biden-was-'cognitively'-challenged
• Christian Paz on trump-coalition-2024-maga-collapse-support-popular-affordability-young-latino

Europe

• Lilith Verstrynge on inside-the-rise-and-fall-of-podemos-we-believed-we-had-a-stake-in-the-future Thanks Nick
• Martin Mongan on cork-men-who-had-opposing-views-on-gay-marriage-to-feature-in-film-on-friendship-and-communication Thanks Nick
• Intigam Marnedov on impasse-at-the-kremlin-heres-what-we-know-after-the-latest-us-russia-talks
• Roman Birke on ukraine-peace-talks-reveal-a-world-slipping-back-into-an-acceptance-of-war
• Lisa Martin on trump-cast-shadow-over-coming-greenland-talks
• Menzie Chinn on guest-contribution-how-geopolitical-tensions-could-shape-frances-inflation-outlook
• noahpinion on europe-is-under-siege
• James Horncastle on donald-trumps-ukraine-peace-deal-would-leave-the-country-vulnerable-to-future-russian-attacks
• Nikola Mikovic on why-ukraine-war-works-china-s-favour

Asia

• institutional economics on bad-arguments-for-rmb-appreciation
• Srijan Shukla on fighting-china-s-subsidies-means-copying-china-s-economic-model
• Amin Saikal on with-a-deadline-looming-lebanon-is-under-pressure-to-disarm-hezbollah-or-risk-another-war
• David Vallance on solving-puzzle-china-s-defence-spending
• Sebastian Maslow on why-tensions-between-china-and-japan-are-unlikely-to-be-resolved-soon

Wonk

• Tim Harford on a-kidney-could-be-the-perfect-christmas-gift
• Brad De Long on reading-is-writing-dialoguing-grunt
• the interpreter on 2025-review-trump-substack-europe-fertility
• Andrew Gawthorpe on what-the-us-national-security-strategy-tells-us-about-how-trump-views-the-world
• Hannah Forsyth on bankers-not-money-make-the-world-go-around-towards-a-labour-tech-history-of-finance
• the conversable economist on antitrust-enforcement-around-the-world
• William Partlett and Alasdair McCullum on constitutional-dark-arts-spreading-russia-world
• noahpinion on should-robots-take-our-jobs

General

• Michael Oswald on frank-gehry-the-architect-of-the-unconventional-the-accidental-and-the-inspiring-has-died-at-96
• nick Scroxton et al on the-hobbits-mysteriously-disappeared-50-000-years-ago-our-new-study-reveals-what-happened-to-their-home

Climate

• Steven Siems and Zhaoyang Kong on storms-in-the-southern-ocean-are-producing-more-rain-and-the-consequences-could-be-global
• Steve Rintoul et al on what-our-missing-ocean-float-revealed-about-antarcticas-melting-glaciers
• skeptical science on comparing-models-with-observations , new_research
• ocean acidification on compound-changes-in-oceans-alarm-scientists
• Than Son Pham on hundreds-of-iceberg-earthquakes-detected-at-the-crumbling-end-of-antarcticas-doomsday-glacier
• David Appell on la-nina-to-end-soon-then-enso-neutral
• Moyhu on november-global-surface-templs-up-006

Andrew Gelman ( mainly stats)

• an-idea-for-getting-approximately-calibrated-50-subjective-probability-ranges 
  
• this-guy-hates-sociology 
  
• life of an artist
  
• my-new-class-this-spring-pols-4280-rationalizing-the-world-the-hopes-and-disappointments-of-american-social-science-from-1900-to-the-present
  
• more-on-school-reform-this-time-new-orleans 
  
• it-has-been-argued-that-current-chatbots-may-pose-a-risk-of-amplifying-delusional-thinking-in-vulnerable-users-due-to-their-tendency-to-sycophantic-and-overly-validating-behaviour
  
• survey-statistics-divine-probabilities
  
• is-there-a-through-line-from-b-s-numbers-in-junk-science-to-b-s-numbers-coming-from-the-government
  
• we-conclude-that-apparent-effects-of-growth-mindset-interventions-on-academic-achievement-are-likely-attributable-to-inadequate-study-design-reporting-flaws-and-bias
  
• a-slew-of-improvements-to-nuts
  
• seven-parameter-drift-diffusion-pdfs-and-cdfs-now-in-stan
  
• if-youre-interested-in-the-box-cox-power-transformation
  
• Kaiser Fung on mta-acknowledges-omny-defects , the-story-on-international-students-coming-to-the-u-s
• Freakometrics on actuarial pricing discrimination and fairness

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• Chris Bertram on letabli
• Tyler Cowen on classical-music-of-2025
• Bill Haskell on review-the-dictators-handbook

Vox Wonk

• brexits-slow-burn-hit-uk-economy 
  
• after-change-how-menopause-affects-womens-labour-and-health-outcomes 
  
• wealth-shocks-tilt-balance-toward-self-insurance-long-term-care
  
• capital-cities-lead-while-other-cities-lag-eu
  
• second-trump-administration-consequences-rest-us
  
• sentiment-channel-fiscal-policy
  
• narrowing-path-trade-and-development-new-era
  
• what-hiding-applicant-names-reveals-about-discrimination-evaluations
  
•  informality-and-effects-minimum-wage-policy-developing-countries
• us-worse-fiscal-shape-italy 
  
• euroclear-and-geopolitics-immobilised-russian-assets 
  
• how-brazils-indexed-minimum-wage-allows-inflation-grease-wheels-labour-market
  

The Fed fiercely disagree with the RBA

 Take two countries. Each have a trimmed mean inflation rate of over 3% with no falling trend as yet.

One country ,Australia, leaves rates on hold and waits on data.

The Other, USA, cuts rates again. This is very strange unless you are very confident the Supreme court will not allow trump to use tariffs!

This decision makes it easier for companies to raise prices when costs rise instead of becoming more efficient. It is sort of Burns lite

The RBA is not being conservative.

 Yesterday the RBA governor ruled out any interest rate cuts in 2026.  This is getting into Phillip Lowe territory. She might be right however she might be wrong. We are in unsure territory as I emphasised yesterday. The Latest quarterly CPI number might well be a rogue number. It may not. We won't know for a while. The new CPI series will have operating problems before it is smooth.

It makes sense to leave rates where they are given all the uncertainty. Ruling out any cuts next year only means you are very certain of the data. Given how wrong the RBA (and the rest of us) have been this year this is very courageous of the RBA. I might note most business surveys have inflation falling still.

Let us assume that the CPI numbers come back to what we thought pre-quarterly release. Then rates could fall but only to 3.25% which is the neutral rate.

Monetary policy is mildly contractionary whilst fiscal policy is mildly expansionary.

Data will be all  important next year and the RBA won't know more than anyone else.

It will be an interesting year.

Alas the market has no memory

 You know you are getting long in the tooth when you remember things that people in the market are to young to remember.

Prior to the last quarterly CPI number everyone was expecting further rate cuts. However that result was bad. One warning no-one saw it coming. suddenly people hopped onto the rare rises bandwagon.

The new expanded monthly CPI serries came out and seemingly confirmed bad inflation data. The full series does not go back very far and it is a new series.

In the  past we have had rogue CPI numbers. Just ask Glenn Stevens. He experienced not one but two!! New series always experience problems sometimes few sometimes more.

Either way we need to be quite wary and thus the RBA has to be conservative. Hence today the only responsible decisions is to leave rates where they are. Mildly restrictive.

The pint here is we do not know where rates are going yet. We do need more information. Rates may well rise but they could also fall

Sport

 the Ashes

The test went as I thought it would. Stokes is a very good captain but just not now. He should be opening the bowling not atkinson. Have the ball swing two different ways from two ends. Their batting which should be their strength is their weakness, Harry Brook personifies this. He is the best batsman on either side yey no bowler gets him out. He gets himself out.

Why is Archer bowling his highest speeds when the test is almost over? How can Carse bowl at 98 mph is NZ but can't get anywhere near 90 mph here is OZ? 

They take two quick wickets and have only the tial to go and then take the new ball yet Atkinson bowled faster than Archer huh?

If the Poms can't get fair dinkum they are looking at a 5-0 defeat!

Football

We are not in a group of death and can make the next stage IF we play well ( which we haven't in the last two games). Poppa id usually a good coach in a tournament and if our promising young players improve we are a chance. We shall see. We do  need a fit Harry Souter back however.

Around the Traps 5/12/25

 It is time for Around the Traps again.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Bernard Keane on labor-lie-robodebt-freedom-of-information Thanks Nick
• Adrian Lee on heres-what-new-debt-to-income-home-loan-caps-mean-for-banks-and-borrowers
• Alex Simpson on is-australia-in-a-youth-crime-crisis-heres-what-the-numbers-say
• Zane Goebel on australians-risk-becoming-strangers-our-own-region
• croaking cassandra on a-few-charts-updated
• Zoe Staines et al on with-a-sneaky-tweak-the-government-has-made-welfare-recipients-guilty-until-proven-innocent
• Michelle Grattan on albanese-government-shies-away-from-tougher-recommendations-from-jobs-for-mates-inquiry
• Imogen Richards on euphemisms-and-false-balance-how-the-media-is-helping-to-normalise-far-right-views
• Hangga Fathana on australian-universities-waning-soft-power
• Michael Shoebridge on want-fix-defence-start-cutting-bureaucratic-bloat
• Greg Jericho on australia-economic-growth-big-drivers-shape-matters-size
• Stella Huangfu on australian-economic-growth-is-solid-but-not-spectacular-rate-cuts-are-off-the-table
• Ian Gribble on australia-bets-old-laws-manage-new-ai-risks
• Ross Gittins on the-economy/the-economy-is-picking-up-pace-what-about-the-speed-limit

OZ climate

• massive-backtrack-from-australias-most-bullish-coal-miner-signals-shift-in-fossil-fuels-long-game
  
• tomago-and-beyond-why-australia-will-celebrate-snowy-2-0-someday
  
• australias-most-advanced-renewable-grid-is-its-most-secure-but-nsw-must-scramble-as-it-nears-no-coal-scenario
  
• australias-biggest-coal-generator-may-be-phased-out-unit-by-unit-rather-than-a-hard-exit
  
• we-have-the-best-site-contracts-for-australias-biggest-wind-project-put-out-to-tender
  
• australias-biggest-syncon-about-to-start-work-in-victoria
  
• we-wont-need-spinning-machines-will-big-batteries-be-allowed-to-provide-heartbeat-of-a-grid-with-engines-off
  
• rooftop-solar-back-on-a-roll-as-new-system-installs-ride-the-battery-boom-to-a-2025-high
  
• worlds-largest-ccs-project-hits-new-low-on-amount-of-carbon-captured-and-stored
• australias-first-six-gigawatt-hour-battery-to-be-built-as-part-of-massive-multi-tech-grid-resiliency-hub
  
• new-1-5-gigawatt-wind-project-backed-by-local-farmers-and-with-big-battery-in-tow-hits-epbc-queue
  
• data-centres-urged-to-bring-their-own-wind-solar-and-big-batteries-so-they-dont-trip-the-grid
  
• how-solar-and-big-batteries-are-shaping-a-new-global-gas-market-reality-and-what-it-means-for-australia
  
• memo-to-lnp-aemc-says-slowing-renewables-sweating-coal-a-recipe-for-20-pct-power-price-hike
  
• renewable-energy-czar-locks-onto-near-neighbour-insurance-fears-offers-national-fix
  
• developers-need-to-show-how-renewables-can-power-rural-ambition-co-ownership-is-one-option
  
• dont-rush-to-raise-fixed-electricity-charges-we-need-to-reform-network-regulation-first
  
• giant-50-kwh-systems-eat-up-cheaper-home-batteries-budget-as-changes-to-rebate-look-likely
  
• agl-backed-offshore-wind-farm-pulls-out-of-contention-for-gippsland-zone
  

• Justine Bell-James et al on long-sought-environmental-law-reform-is-finally-here-but-will-the-compromise-deal-actually-protect-nature
• Samantha Hepburn on will-the-governments-new-gas-reservation-plan-bring-down-prices-yes-if-it-works-properly

Northern America

• Geoff Shellenberger on the-death-of-the-conservative-prestige Thanks Nick
• noahpinion on the-140000-poverty-line-is-very-silly , americas-mayors-are-right-to-support-small-business
• Kruggers on affordability-part-i , trump-pro-crypto-or-pro-crime , trump-to-disaster-victims-drop-dead , eggs-gas-and-lies , magas-affordability-crisis-will-soon
• Menzie Chinn on guest-contribution-how-will-unsustainable-us-debt-end
• Ian Millhiser on supreme-court-trump-slaughter-unitary-executive
• angry bear on road-to-tyranny-is-paved-with-hate
• Jonathan Lemire on trump-white-house-travel-rallies-isolated
• unpopular front on yeah-what-is-post-liberalism-anyway thanks Brad
• Tom Nicholls on pete-hegseth-pentagon-department-defense
• Tyler Cowen on the-myth-of-the-140000-poverty-line
• Fred Kaplan on pete-hegseth-trump-war-crimes-boats-venezuela
• the conversable economist on how-much-are-us-firms-using-ai-tools , the-us-financial-services-industry
• Eric Levitz on trump-hegseth-strike-venezuela-drug-boats-war
• Shane Harris et al on hegseth-signalgate-trump-defense-pentagon
• Ruth Marcus on the-dishonorable-strikes-on-venezuelan-boats
• Brad De Long on how-has-us-manufacturing-been-going-over-the-past-generation ,  trump-promised-voters-lower-prices. He-lies-voters-are-angry
• Jeet Heer on donald-trump-war-crimes-hegseth , zohran-mamdani-trump-new-york-pragmatism
• Shirin Ali on comey-news-trump-prosecutor-fail

Europe

• Hillary Kelly on every-man-dies-alone-hans-fallada-novel
• Joshua Yaffa on what-are-putins-ultimate-demands-for-peace-in-ukraine
• Kristina Berdynskykh on ukraines-corruption-democracy-accountability
• Chris Dillow on the-country

Asia

• Jane Hardy on two-koreas-could-north-south-summit-be-works
• Nguyen Linh on vietnam-s-race-between-speed-stamina
• Alexander Arifianto and Virdika Utama on how-china-views-its-economic-relations-indonesia
• Michele Burgis-Kasthala on what-charges-does-benjamin-netanyahu-face-and-whats-at-stake-if-he-is-granted-a-pardon
• Steve Turton on death-and-devastation-why-a-rare-equatorial-cyclone-and-other-storms-have-hit-southern-asia-so-hard
• Dylan Motin on why-xenophobia-won-t-solve-south-korea-s-china-problem
• Ali Mirchi et al on irans-president-calls-for-moving-its-drought-stricken-capital-amid-a-worsening-water-crisis-how-tehran-got-into-water-bankruptcy
• Shanthie D'Sousa on high-stakes-india-s-refusal-send-former-bangladesh-pm-trial
• Dalia Alazza and Shahzad Uddin on gazas-once-growing-economy-is-nearing-total-collapse
• Charles Crabtree on japan-s-analog-bureaucracy-holds-back-digital-economy
• noahpinion on china-has-invented-a-whole-new-way

Wonk

• Jonathan Haidt on the-devils-plan-to-ruin-next-generation Thanks Nick
• John Long on how-societies-evolved-into-fear-dominated-goliaths-then-collapsed
• Tim Harford on our-devices-work-for-big-tech-not-for-us
• Abhindandan Kumar on g20-becoming-what-it-sought-replace
• noahpinion on i-love-ai-why-doesnt-everyone
• Fiona Panther on is-postmodernism-wrecking-science-in-a-provocative-book-scientists-weigh-the-evidence
• Natalia Beghin on markets-have-money-developing-countries-need-projects-what-s-stopping-them
• RN Prasher on has-second-world-war-finally-ended-germany-japan

General

• Doug Muir on occasional-artwork-because-its-the-dream
• Kruggers on state-of-the-stack-one-year-in
• Vaughn Cruikshank on like-night-and-day-why-test-cricket-changes-so-much-under-lights
• Phillip Clark on the-dude-ranch-above-the-sea-steely-dan

Climate

• ocean acidification on dynamics-of-a-coral-reef-system-under-climate-change ,experimental-evidence-of-climate-change-effects-on-plankton-community-respiration-in-european-coastal-waters-current-insights-and-knowledge-gaps-in-tested-disturbances-and-studied-areas
• real climate on who-should-pay
• Krystall Randall on temperatures-in-a-patch-of-antarctic-moss-can-vary-as-much-as-an-entire-mountain-range
• skeptical science on fact-brief-arcticcycle-2 , new_research

Andrew Gelman ( mostly stats)

• whats-it-like-to-be-the-child-of-a-white-collar-criminal
  
• sermet-pekins-open-source-project-that-discovers-blogs-through-recursive-network-exploration
  
• how-much-of-mississippis-education-miracle-is-an-artifact-of-selection-bias
  
• the-big-clock-and-jeffrey-epstein
  
• survey-statistics-probability-samples-vs-epsem-samples-vs-srs-samples
  
• gerd-gigerenzer-on-the-legacy-of-daniel-kahneman
  
• from-bayesian-inference-to-llms-steve-bronders-2025-cppcon-talk
  
• when-the-numbers-dont-look-right-check-them-mississippi-education-update
  
• the-sapolsky-sanction
  
• freakometrics on insurance, real estate and the manufacturing of ignorance , removing traffic lights
• Kaiser Fung on say-jon-without-the-h-in-chinese

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• from-woolly-to-concrete-liberalism
  
• Tyler Cowen on best-movies-of-2025 , fdr-a-new-political-life , liberal-worlds-james-bryce-and-the-democratic-intellect
• New Yorker on best-books-2025
• The Atlantic on best-books-2025-ian-mcewan-han-kang
• Trevan Wax on favorite-reads-2025

Vox Wonk

• compass-monetary-policy-under-model-uncertainty 
  
• real-impact-fintech-evidence-mobile-payment-technology 
  
• reforming-international-taxation-balancing-profit-shifting-and-investment-responses
  
• green-versus-conventional-corporate-debt-financing-choices-and-climate-outcomes
  
• aligning-drug-prices-and-innovation-how-global-spillovers-shape-future-medicines
  
• hidden-exposures-domestic-supply-chains-spread-foreign-trade-risks
  
• why-eu-innovation-policy-fails-promote-disruptive-innovation 
  
• trailing-margin-official-macro-forecasts-eu-fiscal-surveillance 
  
• demographic-change-headwinds-economic-growth
  
• political-economy-climate-policy-evidence-american-clean-energy-and-security-act 
  
• raising-employment-among-women-and-older-workers-policy-lever-ageing-economies 
  
• economics-second-trump-administration
  

GDP was okay

 Before I start here are two comments on the GDP release:

• australia-economic-growth-big-drivers-shape-matters-size
  
• australian-economic-growth-is-solid-but-not-spectacular-rate-cuts-are-off-the-table

Strong investment growth, the forth rise in productivity, strong growth in housing, the private sector taking over the reins of growth all give the right signs. However CBA research says we are fast approaching the speed limit of the economy which is a problem.

This means we need more investment fast.

We shall see how good this government is and whether they understand the problem