Maduro

 Here are a few articles.

• commentary-of-note-on-venezuela ( mostly NYT editorial)
  
• the-us-has-invaded-countries-and-deposed-leaders-before-its-military-action-against-venezuela-feels-different
  
• were-the-us-actions-in-venezuela-legal-under-international-law-an-expert-explains
  
• how-maduros-capture-went-down-a-military-strategist-explains-what-goes-into-a-successful-special-op
  
• 5-scenarios-for-a-post-maduro-venezuela-and-what-they-could-signal-to-the-wider-region
  
• i-wrote-a-book-on-the-politics-of-war-powers-and-trumps-attack-on-venezuela-reflects-congress-surrendering-its-decision-making-powers
  
• venezuela-maduro-trump-attack-capture-oil-news-conference
  
• trump-nicolas-maduro-venezuela
  
• trump-venezuela-maduro-delcy-rodriguez
  
• regime-change-in-americas-back-yard
  
• can-the-us-really-run-venezuela
  

I remember when the USA invaded Iraq ( illegally) and I asked when the USA would invade north korea or Zimbabwe etc. It never happened of course. The same applies in these circumstances.

No-one but no-one will be unhappy Madro had gone but the circumstances on how he has gone are alarming.the  international rules based order has gone. It gives encouragement to Putin, Xi and any others.

If Trump had an intellect he would realise this however he is a would be autocrat!

Around the Traps 2/1/26 News Years edition

 It is time for Around the Traps.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Mark the Graph on economic-outlook-2026-productivity-and-the-end-of-the-easy-policy , i-tried-to-build-dsge-model-and-failed
• Antony Green on do-how-to-votes-matter-evidence-from-the-2022-sa-election
• Michelle Grattan on has-albanese-misjudged-the-public-mood-or-is-he-fearful-of-a-royal-commission
• Peter Martin on the-certainty-of-ever-growing-living-standards-is-over
• Mark the Ballot on aggregated-attitudinal-polling
• Stephanie Tran on israel-bans-msf-aid-orgs-from-gaza-publishes-aussie-antisemites-list

OZ Climate

• too much christmas cheer

Northern America

• Dahlia Lithwick and Mark Stern on supreme-court-trump-roberts-kavanaugh-thomas-alito-gorsuch-coney-barrett , brett-kavanaugh-stops-immigration-racial-profiling-ice
• noahpinion on ten-things-that-are-going-right-in-america , at-least-five-interesting-things
• Tyler Cowen on the-macroeconomic-effects-of-tariffs-evidence-from-u-s-historical-data
• Jonathan Chait on bari-weiss-cecot-60-minutes
• Kruggers on magas-betrayal-of-small-business ,the-heritage-foundation-shows-how-maga-will-die ,immigrant-derangement-syndrome , notes-on-new-york
• the conversable economist on us-growth-from-hours-worked-or-productivity-gains
• Christian Paz on gen-z-volatile-young-trump-voters-conservative-democrat-liberal-vote
• Nancy Gertner on ice-scotus-impunity
• Carol Leannig and Ken Dilanian on border-czar-tom-homan-didnt-receive-normal-background-check-during-bribery-probe
• Sussan Glasser on donald-trumps-golden-age-of-awful
• Nancy Gertner on ice-scotus-impunity
• Richard Haas on special-edition-as-2025-ends-a-country-and-a-world-out-of-balance
• Barbara McQuade on florida-grand-conspiracy-investigation-trump
• Menzie Chinn on guest-contribution-why-didnt-trumps-tariffs-crash-the-economy-in-2025
• Brad De Long on lessons-for-debt-control-from-clintons-success
• Joshua Shanes on zohran-mamdani-donald-trump-adl-greenblatt

Europe

• Amy Walker on ukraine denies drone attack
• Paul Kirby on the thorny issues that amy derail a russia-ukraine peace deal
• Olga Ivshina on russias losses in ukraine rise faster than ever

Asia

• Kruggers on chinas-trade-surplus-part-i
• Christopher De Bellaigue  on hype-and-fraud-in-india
• Menzie Chinn on the-prcs-intimidation-campaign
• Homo Economicus on my-ten-favorite-papers-this-year thanks Tyler Cowen
• Arash Azizi on iran-protests

Wonk

• David Slucki on what-does-zionism-mean-different-things-people-antisemitism-ntwnfb
• Tim Harford on santa-claus-is-still-a-woman
• the conversable economist on whats-a-widget-in-the-modern-economy , keynes-free-trade-and-the-nationalist-impulse , hume-on-the-jealousy-of-trade , is-your-destiny-seeking-you
• Jemima McPhee on 5-lessons-about-misinformation-from-ancient-greek-and-roman-scientists
• noahpinion on the-weeb-economy
• institutional economics on 2025-in-charts
• Tatiana Schlossberg on a-battle-with-my-blood
• Luke Hartigan on why-central-bankers-look-to-the-stars-when-setting-interest-rates
• Brad De Long on against-hankins-you-cant-use-moral-relativism

General

• John Arnold and Tom Whycherly on why-do-cricket-balls-have-to-be-so-hard
• Polly Burey on how-do-i-make-clear-ice-at-home-a-food-scientist-shares-easy-tips
• konstantine Panegyres on what-were-books-like-in-ancient-greece-and-rome
• Brad De Long on star-trek-the-wrath-of-khan-as-franchise-hinge

Climate

• the climate brink on my-2026-and-2027-global-temperature-forecasts
• real climate on 1-5oc-and-all-that
• Bill McKibben on its-a-gas-the-story-of-co2
• Paul Voosen on global-carbon-emissions-will-soon-flatten-or-decline thanks Steve from Brisbane
• skeptical science on direct-air-capture , new_research

Andrew Gelman (mainly stats)

• how-much-of-an-nba-teams-won-loss-record-is-from-skill-and-how-much-is-luck
  
• no-one-could-suspect-that-times-were-coming-when-the-man-who-did-not-gamble-would-lose-all-the-time-even-more-surely-than-he-who-gambled
  
• looking-at-the-port-huron-statement-63-years-later
  
• how-the-covid-vaccine-almost-killed-me
  
• a-funny-mismatch-between-the-level-of-the-course-and-what-the-instructor-is-doing-on-the-blackboard
  
• survey-statistics-more-adventures-in-mismeasured-x
  
• crap research and more
• what-we-can-remember-the-vagaries-of-literary-fame
  
• pinning-the-group-level-variance-parameters-to-speed-computation-for-hierarchical-models
  
• barnard-college-president-promotes-free-expression-does-not-comment-on-recent-anti-free-expression-policies-at-the-college
  
• freakometrics on key updates on the international AI safety report

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• Jo Case on whats-on-your-summer-reading-list-we-asked-6-dedicated-readers

Vox Wonk

• lessons-18-years-editing-voxeu
  

John Adams

 I watched John Adams the mini-series last week and this with my family. It is dated ( (2008) but it is brilliant. The link gives a better summary than I could give.

The series is well written, well acted and a joy to watch. It is on Prime so it will cost you but it is worth it.

Highly recommended.

I should have mentioned his son became President as well but like his father was a one term president.

Should there be a royal commision?

 There is a lot of pressure on the Federal government to hold a royal commision. Some want it to concentrate on the bondi massacre others want it to examine antisemitism as well.

I can see a few problems here.

1. The most important thing to examine is why the security forces failed. This is being examined by Dennis Richardson. It is possible this was missed because they were lone wolves and had little social media presence. We have to wait to know. BUT we need to get this information pronto. Quite clearly a royal commission would get in the way.
2. a RC usually examines a specific question. not 'social attitude such as anti semitism. This would cause controversy. The very definition would. Segal's adoption of a definition had criticism of israel involved in anti semitism. Such a definition is obviously absurd however there are some in the 'jewish' lobby who desire that. We can see this as some people deliberately conflate pro-palestinian marches with the massacre.
3. NSW will hold a RC  so why have two.

I am indifferent to holding a RC however it should wait until after Dennis Richardson reports.

the 4th test debacle

 I love test cricket but two day tests are not test cricket.

Yes the wicket was bowler friendly but there is nothing wrong with that. The techniques of batsmen on both sides were simply terrible. Ken Barrington ,Colin Cowdrey , Geoff boycott would be livid.

I saw a number of batsmen bowled through the gate. Bat and pad has to be close together on a seaming pitch. I blame mainly T20 guff and white ball crap for this debacle. Batting of flat tracks leaves you with no experience to dealing with the seaming ball. It was embarrassing.

the 5th test in Sydanee is the last test so changing a team is pretty pointless unless you have to. 

Australia needs a spinner instead of Richardson. the Poms needs to replace Atkinson. I would also make Stokes an opening bowler as he swings the ball better and more than any of the others.

Around the Traps 26/12/25

 It is time for Around the Traps again.

Aussie,Aussie,Aussie,Oy,Oy,Oy

• Michelle Grattan on australias-law-enforcement-and-intelligence-agencies-to-be-reviewed-post-bondi , albanese-government-announces-gas-reservation-plan-to-address-supply-and-price
• Mark the Graph on from-toy-model-to-working-framework
• Nick Gruen on market-what-market-the-catch-22-at-the-heart-of-innovation-in-government
• Kevin Bonham on 2025-polling-year-in-review
• Anne Twomey on nsw-parliament-rushing-anti-protest-laws
• Mark the Graph on regime-switching-phillips-curves-and-productivity-puzzles

OZ Climate

• australias-most-powerful-battery-put-on-standby-to-prevent-blackouts-with-four-big-coal-units-offline
  
• first-solar-battery-hybrid-on-australias-main-grid-is-energised-and-ready-to-send-pv-into-evening-peaks
  
• offshore-wind-turbines-create-all-you-can-eat-havens-where-some-fish-can-double-in-size
  
• snowy-could-emerge-as-the-fairy-godmother-in-race-for-contracts-and-capital-to-replace-ageing-coal-clunkers
  
• fossil-gas-exporters-forced-to-give-australia-first-rights-at-reasonable-prices-for-new-contracts-only
  
• sec-steps-in-to-rescue-another-stalled-project-an-australian-first-wind-farm-overlooking-coal-ruins
  
• modelling-spot-prices-in-a-post-coal-grid-when-big-batteries-will-become-the-price-setters
  
• this-has-to-change-flurry-of-late-orders-breaks-wind-drought-and-gives-global-turbine-giants-hope-for-2026
• Jamshid Aghaei et al  on when-disasters-strike-home-batteries-could-be-a-lifeline

Northern America

• Kruggers on affordability-part-iv , magas-manly-manufacturing-misfire , a-new-k-in-america
• Nic Bisley on time-us-plus-one
• Andrew Prokop on epstein-files-redactions-disappointing
• noahpinion on can-we-make-america-feel-more-affordable , america-has-to-feel-fair
• Anthony Fisher on trump-brett-kavanaugh-ice-immigration-papers-please-crackdown
• new deal democrat on two-important-employment-indicators-from-november-one-says-continued-expansion-the-second-recession ,strong-q3-gdp-but-long-leading-components-are-mixed
• Andrew Prokop on 60-minutes-cbs-censored-bari-weiss
• Brad De Long on fake-standards-and-real-pro-trump-censorship , the-1984-theory-of-bari-weiss
• Suzanne Schneider on laffaire-tucker-carlson-heritage-antisemitism
• Ian Millhiser on supreme-court-trump-national-guard
• Mark Stern on trump-v-illinois-supreme-court-national-guard-chicago
• Charlie Sykes on heritage-foundation-exodus-fight-conservative-movement-trump
• Joshua Keating on trump-greenland-denmark
• Steve Schmidt on bari-weiss-killed-cbs-news-in-76 Thanks Brad
• David Rhode et al on trump-witkoff-qatar-foreign-policy

Europe

• Linda Kinstler on minimum-victory-ukraine-peace-talks
• noahpinion on why-europe-should-resist-the-second-china-shock

Asia

• Soyoung Kim on japan-korea-relations-sanae-s-puzzling-provocation
• Ramita Iyer on india-emerges-data-centre-hub
• Brad De Long on crosspost-adrian-monck-nie-huihua
• the conversable economist on how-does-japan-sustain-such-high-government-debt

Wonk

• Nathan Gardels on the-creative-intuition-of-frank-gehry Thanks Nick
• Rachel Aviv on Oliver Sacks puts himself into his case studies. But at what cost Thanks Nick
• Marcus Avan on anthropics-record-ccn-interview Thanks Nick
• Peter Jacobson and Beck Wise on who-was-amelia-frank-the-life-of-a-forgotten-physicist
• Mathew Newman on new-era-political-risk-insurance
• the conversable economist on he-late-1800s-when-high-tariffs-and-expanding-trade-happened-together , economics-of-the-attention-economy , charles-dickens-on-seeing-poverty
• Fred Kaplan on trump-russia-ukraine-putin-witkoff-talks
• Mathew Newman on new-normal-tracking-rise-global-conflict
• Jonti Horner and Duane Hamacher on what-was-the-christmas-star-astronomy-might-hold-the-answer
• John Hawkins and Tesfaye Gebremehdin on can-you-live-long-and-prosper-by-learning-economics-from-star-trek-or-is-that-highly-illogical

General

• Tim Harford on santa-claus-is-still-a-woman
• Joan Taylor on what-world-was-jesus-born-into-a-historian-describes-the-turbulent-times-of-the-real-nativity
• Sophie Jones on why-mangoes-fall-before-theyre-ripe-and-how-science-is-helping-them-hang-on
• Brad De Long on star-trek-the-wrath-of-khan-as-franchise-hinge

Climate

• Moyhu on averaging-temperature-over-timeregion-with-stations-of-varying-climate
• skeptical science on zeks-2026-2027-forecasts

Andrew Gelman (mainly stats)

• hey-im-in-the-dictionary-too
  
• i-think-theres-an-argument-to-be-made-that-much-meta-scientific-work-is-a-kind-of-mirror-image-of-the-empirical-work-it-critiques
• who-else-is-in-the-goddam-dictionary
  
• the-problems-with-popular-internet-heuristics-such-as-hanlons-razor-steelmanning-and-godwins-law-all-of-which-kind-of-fall-apart
  
• survey-statistics-is-a-mismeasured-x-better-than-none-at-all
  
• holiday-open-thread-correct-me-point-out-all-my-mistakes
  
• slop-is-not-distinguishable-by-its-attributes-it-is-an-attitude-of-production
  
• if-only-lee-bollinger
  
• how-much-of-an-nba-teams-won-loss-record-is-from-skill-and-how-much-is-luck
  
• Kaiser Fung on another-type-of-algo-pricing , making-online-help-more-helpful

Dianne Coyle ( quirky + book reviews)

• the-enlightened-economist-prize-2025-longlist
  
• Constance Grady on best-books-2025
• the common reader on the-books-i-enjoyed-most-this-year Thanks Tyler
• Tyler Cowen on what-ive-been-reading , 38-londres-street
• David Vallance on most-influential-book-i-read-year

Vox Wonk

• how-foreign-wars-can-consolidate-authoritarian-power-evidence-russias-invasion 
  
• fact-checking-reduces-circulation-misinformation-we-should-not-get-rid-it 
  
• harnessing-wisdom-crowds-oecd-recession-predictions
  
• crypto-carry-market-segmentation-and-price-distortions-digital-asset-markets 
  
• macroeconomic-impacts-defence-spending 
  
• tariffs-and-technological-hegemony
  
• nonlinear-phillips-curve-helps-explain-inflation-overshoot
  
• measuring-political-narratives-virality-beliefs-and-memory 
  
• paradox-perfect-supervision
  
• ai-and-systemic-risk
  

Film Review Nuremberg

 Last week My family went and watched Nuremberg. My wife and sons loved it. Me I thought it was so so. I thought it meandered quite a bit. Read the link to find out about the film. Russell Crowe,as usual, was very good however I think both his portrayal of goering and how hie is portrayed overall was very problematic. Perhaps it why i was a tad disappointed in the film but Goering thought he could charm his way into the allies making him the German leader which is why he surrendered instead of committing suicide.

The discovery of the final solution should have told him that thinking was crazy.

Goering was no intellectual ( there were plenty in the SS)  but he was no idiot so why did he support Hitler who like many dictators had limited intellectual abilities. He had no understanding of opportunity cost for example.

Go and see it and tell me if I am wrong!